Gale Warning 199, NWS Anchorage, AK

321 
FZAK51 PAFC 151247
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-160300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA THIS MORNING. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES THIS
MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT NEAR WHITTIER THIS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT THIS MORNING. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16
FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EXCEPT HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY BARREN ISLANDS AND W. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 40 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY...EXCEPT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-160300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-160300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE MAINLAND WITH AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS FIRMLY SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WARNING LEVEL GAP WINDS ARE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AND AND OTHER FAVORABLE
NORTH-SOUTH PASSES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO PREVALENT ALONG COOK INLET AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AS DUE TO A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND HIGHER PRESSURE INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM BARROW TO KODIAK.

CONDITIONS ARE CALM OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AS WELL WITH THE
REGION DOMINATED BY BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE BASED HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE AKPEN AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. A FEW STRAY COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE
PRIBILOFS AND AKPEN...BUT THESE ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE
NORTHERLY FLOW LESSENS. A WEATHER FRONT IS PRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE
PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL WITH TWO SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THAT ARE ENHANCING THE
GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THE MAT VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING OF A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT THAT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...HIGH WIND WARNINGS FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA REMAIN IN EFFECT
TROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY AND THEN FINALLY TAPER OFF AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS. WHILE THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BE
THE WINDIEST PLACE THERE WILL BE CONTINUED STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AROUND KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEY. WIND
CHILLS ARE ALSO A CONCERN WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR 40 BELOW
ZERO AND COLDER WIND CHILLS ARE IN EFFECT IN PORTIONS OF THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THOMPSON PASS. THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR AREAS FROM THE ALASKA RANGE EAST.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
BERING SEA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN MODELS SOLUTIONS
THIS WEEKEND MAKES THE LONG TERM FORECAST QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. PROJECTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WHICH
TRANSLATES TO VERY DIFFERENT FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 131 135. WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131 141 145.
MARINE...GALE 121 129 130 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 179 180
185.
STORM WARNING 176.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALL GULF COAST AREAS AND AREAS 150 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 11