Gale Warning 155, NWS Anchorage, AK

737 
FZAK62 PAFC 211237
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-220300-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 47N 170E STRENGTHENS TO 998 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 61N 174E TUE MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND. A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW INTENSIFIES TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES TO 51N 175E TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-220300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-220300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-220300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-220300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

363 
FZAK62 PAFC 212355
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING 
TUE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. A DEVELOPING PACIFIC
LOW WILL TRACK TO 47N 175E TUE EVENING AT 984 MB. THIS LOW WILL 
THEN STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB AS IT MOVES TO 55N 177E WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E OF 176E...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W OF 176E...NW WIND 20
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E OF 177E...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. W OF 177E...N WIND 30
TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176E. 
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

561 
FZAK62 PAFC 221240
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 22 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING THROUGH WED
NIGHT. A 986 MB LOW NEAR 43N 172E TUE AFTERNOON INTENSIFIES TO 975 MB
NEAR 52N 175E WED AFTERNOON AND THEN MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
TO 59N 177E WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 22 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT.  RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 22 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 22 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 22 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1140 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...ALASKA IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN A
STRONG NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE AND A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA.
A ZONAL 145 KT JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. AT THE SURFACE A DISSIPATING FRONT IS MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF. WITH BROAD
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT
IS BANKED UP ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAKENING FRONT MEANS
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IMPACT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING THE USUAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONE PROBLEM
AREA IS OVER THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS BEGINNING TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP IN THIS CORRIDOR AND MODELS INDICATE
LOWS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK NORTHWARD. THE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY OF LOW POSITIONS AND STRENGTH IS QUITE POOR. FOR NOW
PLAN TO MAKE USE OF THE GFS SOLUTION BECAUSE IT IS NOT VERY
DIFFERENT FROM THE EXISTING FORECAST AND WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
CHANGES UNTIL MODELS GAIN A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MODELS INDICATE VERY WEAK UPWARD MOTION AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE KENAI/CHUGACH/TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS...AND SIMILARLY
ALONG THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH A DUSTING UP TO PERHAPS AND
INCH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE GULF AND MAINLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND JET ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE NORTH TO WEST
GULF COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK SO COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE BERING SEA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE FOG FORMATION.
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE MONDAY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN AND FOG WILL BECOME A GREATER THREAT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE
A LITTLE WIND AS FRONTS CROSSING THE BERING NEAR THE WESTERN ALASKA
COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF RUSSIA AND INTO
THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND INTO WESTERN ALASKA. THUS...A SOUTH TO NORTH STORM TRACK WILL
SET UP OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING. AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEK THIS FRONTAL CORRIDOR WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WEAKEN
AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORCED OVER THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
BERING THIS WEEK SHOULD REACH THE MAINLAND BY WEEK'S END...ALTHOUGH
IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
RIGHT BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SO GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SHIFT THE ACTIVITY BACK TO THE WESTERN
BERING NEXT WEEKEND...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 130 132 150 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 11