Gale Warning 111, NWS Anchorage, AK

324 
FZAK51 PAFC 270701 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1000 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

UPDATED ZONES 121 AND 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271500-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW NEAR SEWARD WILL DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-271500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-271500-
RESURRECTION BAY
1000 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 20 KT NEAR SEWARD. SEAS 2 
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-271500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-271500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1000 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. STRONGER SW GUSTS 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
1 FOOT. SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-271500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
$$

PKZ132-271500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 13 FT N OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-271500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-271500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-271500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

213 
FZAK51 PAFC 271220
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280300-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A WEATHER
FRONT APPROACHES THE GULF THU AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-280300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-280300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-280300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-280300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-280300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-280300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING
SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-280300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5
FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-280300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-280300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POWERFUL ALEUTIAN LOW
THAT IS STARTING TO IMPACT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS
RUNNING 3 TO 5 MB DEEPER THAN NAM OR ECWMF BUT POSITION THROUGH 42
HOURS IS PRETTY GOOD. STILL LOOKING AT LOW CENTER TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE BERING ON FRI.

MODELS ALSO INDICATING WEAK LOW OVER GREATER KENAI PEN AREA TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN GULF.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEUTIAN
SYSTEM WITH VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  STRONG 300 MB JET OVER
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN AK PEN IS DRIVING THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES FRI OVER THE STATE BUT SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FETCH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...MANY WARNINGS IN PLACE AS WE ARE EXPECTING STRONG
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND NORTH FLOW AS WELL.  SNOW TURNING
TO RAIN THIS EVENING IN EASTERN AL AND AK PEN BUT SNOW IN CENTRAL AL
WITH NORTH FLOW.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD LOOKS AS IF PRIBS
WILL BE IN WARMER AIR SO SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN BUT SUBSTANTIAL WINDS
THU MORNING THROUGH FRI MORNING.

SOUTHWEST...FRONT SHOULD START TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE STRONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD BLIZZARDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON.

SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH WEAK LOW OVER KENAI PEN EXPECTING SOME WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IN
COOK INLET AREA THU MORNING BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN
THE 20S.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FROM SAT ONWARD LOOKS AS IF PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FETCH OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSPORT A SERIES OF LOWS AND
WAVES ONSHORE. TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN COOK
INLET WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND CHANCE FOR SNOW INLAND.  LOOKS AS
IF A CHANCE OF SNOW IN SOUTHWEST ZONES SUN NIGHT.  BENIGN WEATHER IN
THE BERING AFTER THIS NEXT LARGE STORM EXITS ON SAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING: 181
         BLIZZARD WARNING:  187 161 155
MARINE...HURRICANE: 172        STORMS: 170 171 155 165 150 160
         GALES:175 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP JAN 11