Red Flag Warning 52, NWS Albuquerque, NM

881 
WWUS85 KABQ 161023
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
423 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR
THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.STRONG MIXING AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED 20 FOOT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY.
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

NMZ104-108-162130-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FW.A.0049.110516T1900Z-110517T0200Z/
/O.UPG.KABQ.FW.A.0050.110517T1700Z-110518T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.FW.W.0053.110517T1700Z-110518T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.FW.A.0051.110518T1800Z-110519T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
423 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* AREA AND TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
  BY THE NOON HOUR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON
  TUESDAY. THOUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL BE
  AFFECTED...FAVORED AREAS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE WEST
  OF A NEWKIRK TO FORT SUMNER LINE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
  ON WEDNESDAY...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
  AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORED AREAS ON
  WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SEDAN...TO SANTA
  ROSA...TO YESO.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
  ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...AND
  BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

NMZ103-107-162130-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FW.A.0049.110516T1900Z-110517T0200Z/
/O.UPG.KABQ.FW.A.0050.110517T1700Z-110518T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.FW.W.0053.110517T1700Z-110518T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
423 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
  BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
  HIGHLANDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 2 AND 6
  PM. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
  MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ105-162130-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0052.110516T1900Z-110517T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
423 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID
  AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
  NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS. AREAS AFFECTED WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE
  CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS WILL BE
  BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 7 AND 12 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

34

786 
WWUS85 KABQ 162101
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE
TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THROUGH SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY MID
EVENING TO EASE THESE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY...A WEATHER
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN COMBINED WITH DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL COMBINE WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO PRODUCE
A BROAD AREA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST SEVERE OVER THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH CONTINUED DEEPENING OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST SEVERE NEAR THE
TEXAS BORDER.

NMZ104-108-170200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0053.110517T1700Z-110518T0300Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0051.110518T1800Z-110519T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
301 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...ON TUESDAY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
  BY NOON...WITH THE MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A
  LINE FROM ROY TO ROSWELL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT BUT
  REDEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
  EVENING. EXPECT THE MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EAST OF A
  LINE FROM CLAYTON...TO SANTA ROSA...TO ROSWELL.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 MPH
  TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON
  WEDNESDAY...GUSTS WILL REDEVELOP AND REACH 40 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...AND 
  BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

NMZ105-170200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0052.000000T0000Z-110517T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
301 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

* AREA AND TIMING...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
  EVENING...WITH MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
  DIVIDE AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE ARIZONA LINE.
  DECREASING WINDS AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES AFTER SUNSET WILL
  EASE THESE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 7 AND 12 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ103-107-170200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0053.110517T1700Z-110518T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
301 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL 
  DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND 
  CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 
  2 AND 6 PM. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

SHY

847 
WWUS85 KABQ 170150
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
750 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE
TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL COMBINE WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID-TEENS TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE MOST SEVERE ACROSS THE
EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH CONTINUED DEEPENING OF
LOW PRESSURE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST SEVERE NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.

NMZ105-170300-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0052.000000T0000Z-110517T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
750 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EASING ACROSS THE REGION...THEREFORE THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT.

$$

NMZ104-108-171400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0053.110517T1700Z-110518T0300Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0051.110518T1800Z-110519T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
750 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY NOON ON
  TUESDAY...WITH THE MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A
  LINE FROM ROY TO ROSWELL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT BUT
  WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
  EAST OF A LINE FROM CLAYTON TO SANTA ROSA TO ROSWELL.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
  GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL REDEVELOP
  WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AND
  BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

NMZ103-107-171400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0053.110517T1700Z-110518T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
750 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL 
  DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND 
  CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 
  2 AND 6 PM MDT. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

DPORTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 PM MDT SUN MAY 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS REMAINED IN TACT OVER THE
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY WITH ONE CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER ONE DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERNMOST LOW WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY MAKE SOME HEADWAY
EASTWARD...BREAKING UP THE WEATHER PATTERN AND KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BEEN VEERING IN DIRECTION WITH MOST LOCALES TURNING SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE THE RECENT BACK DOOR FRONT
MESHED WITH A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW...BUT STILL DEWPOINTS ARE
LACKLUSTER FOR MID MAY WITH ONLY MID 30S NOTED NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS CONSEQUENTLY DWINDLING ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRES...AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO NOTABLY
LESS THAN WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY SO ANY SHOWERS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL
IN FROM THE WEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES...BUT OTHERWISE A SEASONAL AND UNEVENTFUL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.

MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL BE ESTABLISHED MONDAY
WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP
NEAR THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER. AS THE 700 MB WINDS
APPROACH 20 TO 30 KT SOME STRONGER BREEZES AND WINDS WILL BE MIXED
TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL SET UP
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO ACT AS AN INSTABILITY
AXIS. THE NAM12 IS INDICATING SUBTLE CAPE ALONG THIS AXIS...BUT IT
IS JUST ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP VERY LOW GRADE POPS GOING IN THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RIGHT AT CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MONDAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH MET
GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THIS.

ON TUESDAY THE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL BE QUITE COMPARABLE TO SPEEDS
FORECASTED FOR MONDAY AS THE VAST UPPER LOW IN THE WEST MAKES
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT BUT HOSTS DUMB-BELLING VORTICITY LOBES.
GENESIS OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WILL BE
THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCE FOR WIND FORECAST...CARRYING SPEEDS UP
JUST A BIT. APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL NOT QUITE BE AT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE CLOSE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CAN ALSO BE INFERRED FROM
THIS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS
WOULD BE MOVING MORE INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOME WEAK ADVECTION OF
UPSTREAM VORTICITY WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS. BOTH OF
THESE AREAS HAVE JUST ISOLATED POPS BUILT INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THINGS TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
LOW SHIFTS INTO NEVADA/UTAH...INCREASING FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
WINDS WORK UP FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POPS
GIVEN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND AVAILABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
IS BEING ADVERTISED BY MODELS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS WITH
QPF...AND WHILE THE TRAP OF WISHCASTING IS THERE...HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THIS SOLUTION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE DEPICTING FAIRLY
SIMILAR HEIGHT FIELDS TOO.

LOW WILL SLUGGISHLY MOVE OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY THURSDAY...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
FAIRLY COOL WITH LOWER AND DISTURBED HEIGHT FIELDS THEREAFTER. THE
LOW GETS ABSORBED TO THE NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS ASSUMED
INTO ANOTHER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE WEEKEND.
DETAILS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY NEXT
SUNDAY.

52

&&

.AVIATION...RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD BY
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. VFR
STATEWIDE AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. CIGS FALLING TO
BKN040 FOR A FEW HRS AFTER 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT LVS...BUT
THIS WILL SCATTER OUT AFT 16Z. FURTHER EAST...CIGS AOA BKN080
MAINLY EAST OF DRYLINE FEATURE FROM RTN ROW FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY GAP WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PASSES OUT OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING AFTER 15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEST TO ARIZONA
LINE...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AROUND 02Z.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA LINE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ACROSS
GUADALUPE...SAN MIGUEL...AND WESTERN QUAY COUNTIES. ON
TUESDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PLAINS TO THE TEXAS BORDER. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY MAINLY FROM
INTERSTATE 40 SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE
TEXAS BORDER. LINGERING AND LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVER THESE SAME AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH REASONABLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN A FAIRLY ROBUST CONSENSUS. MODELS SHOWING CURRENT
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO BREAKING DOWN MONDAY...ALLOWING SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND LIFT OUT LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. NEXT
INBOUND SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AND MOVE
INTO NEW MEXICO LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY...APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BOOST WESTERN WIND SPEEDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXACT TIMING OF WIND SPEED MAXIMA WILL DEPEND ON SYSTEM MAKING GOOD
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS
BREAKING INTO RED FLAG TERRITORY COMBINED WITH LONG STANDING DRY
CONDITIONS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WITH EXPECTED MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEST TO THE
ARIZONA LINE. WITH INCREASED MOMENTUM ALOFT...ALSO EXPECTING GUSTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO WESTERN QUAY COUNTY. WITH
SOMEWHAT REDUCED CONFIDENCE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FAST
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...WILL PLACE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. PRESENCE OF CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RATON TO
ROSWELL DRY LINE MAY ALSO INHIBIT AFTERNOON MIXING CLOSER TO THE
TEXAS LINE...AND WILL ENSURE WORDING OF WATCH REFLECTS THIS EASTERN
LIMIT. FAIR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT
THE EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE WET SIDE OF THE DRY LINE...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL EKE INTO THE GOOD CATEGORY.

FOR TUESDAY...LARGE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WILL EXPAND COVERAGE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...AND SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP WINDY
AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH HUMIDITIES
STRUGGLING TO KEEP OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY...AND WILL SET WATCH THIS ROUND FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH GREATER DURATION AND
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THAN SEEN FOR MONDAY. WITH SYSTEM APPROACH
AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...DRY LINE FEATURE WILL BE SHOVED
EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ENTIRELY ON
THE DRY SIDE. TUESDAY NIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR TO FAIR
STATEWIDE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LARGE SYSTEM REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH BROAD
SWATH OF CLOUD COVER WORKING IN FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE ANOTHER NOTCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO DEEPENING FURTHER IN TURN. WITH
A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE WORKING AND SOME COOLING OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY HUMIDITIES IN SINGLE DIGITS WILL BOTTOM IN
THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND SQUEAK ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WITH SOMEWHAT DRYER
AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...AND WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING OVER
NORTHEAST END OF THE STATE. SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY WITH A QUIET SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST HEADED EAST. SOME LINGERING STRONGER AND WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITIES MAY PRODUCE SOME RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A LINGERING
HOUR OR TWO THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 ON THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL BE THE WRAP UP FOR THIS PERIOD
OF FIRE WEATHER AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES BROADLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S PCT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AND SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  79  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
DULCE...........................  32  73  32  60 /   0   5   5  20
CUBA............................  31  73  31  65 /   5   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  41  73  41  66 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  36  70  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  35  76  39  68 /   0   5   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  38  72  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  45  79  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  29  67  30  55 /   5   5   5  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  74  47  68 /   0   5   5   0
PECOS...........................  39  74  42  67 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  71  35  65 /   5   5   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  28  60  29  58 /  10   5   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  30  61  30  62 /  10   5   5   0
TAOS............................  38  75  37  70 /   5   5   5   0
MORA............................  40  70  41  70 /   5   5   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  40  81  41  75 /   0   5   5   0
SANTA FE........................  44  78  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  45  80  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  50  79  50  75 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  81  53  75 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  47  83  48  77 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  48  84  48  76 /   0   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  48  84  49  76 /   0   5   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  49  84  50  76 /   0   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  53  86  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  80  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  45  80  47  72 /   0   5   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  41  77  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  47  78  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  51  80  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  46  71  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  38  72  40  77 /  10  10  10   5
RATON...........................  41  77  42  79 /  10  10   5   5
SPRINGER........................  43  77  43  80 /   5  10   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  39  73  42  73 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  42  76  47  81 /   5  10  10  10
ROY.............................  42  75  46  79 /   5  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  48  84  51  87 /   5  10   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  46  82  50  84 /   5   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  87  53  88 /   5  10  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  48  83  52  85 /   5  10  10  10
PORTALES........................  49  84  53  86 /   5  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  84  53  87 /   5  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  53  87  54  90 /   0   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  50  85  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  45  79  48  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

52/SHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NMZ501>540-161200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ON WEDNESDAY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN SOCORRO COUNTY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.