Wind Advisory 13, NWS Blacksburg, VA

955 
WWUS71 KRNK 280950
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
550 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...

.LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

VAZ007-009-010-WVZ042-281600-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-100328T2200Z/
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...BLUEFIELD...
FLAT TOP
550 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
  AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

* SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

* TREES AND POWERLINES COULD BE DOWNED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

245 
WWUS71 KRNK 281401
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1001 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...

.LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

VAZ007-009-010-WVZ042-282200-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-100328T2200Z/
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...BLUEFIELD...
FLAT TOP
1001 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
  THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

* SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

* TREES AND POWERLINES COULD BE DOWNED. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE
  CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

07

671 
WWUS71 KRNK 282140
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
540 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010



VAZ007-009-010-WVZ042-282245-
/O.EXP.KRNK.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-100328T2200Z/
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...BLUEFIELD...
FLAT TOP
540 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* THE STRONGER WINDS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH US FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENDING A QUICK UPDATE TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS A FEW
COUNTIES IN THE TAZEWELL/BLF VICINITY WHERE STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. LOOKS LIKE BEST SPEEDS THRU DAYBREAK THEN AGAIN WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER US.
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES ANY LOW LVL CLOUDINESS OVER THE FAR SWRN
NC MTNS INTO SC. DESPITE THIS...GOOD SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN UP THE LOW LVLS OVERNIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE
B4 WE START SEEING ANY LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE. THEREFORE BACKED OFF
POPS TIL AFTER 09Z...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FAST.

AS FOR THE WINDS...THERE WAS ONE BURST OF HIGHER GUSTS THIS
EVENING WITH A 40 MPH GUST REPORTED IN TAZWELL COUNTY. THE NEXT
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ARRIVES IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME SUNDAY.
COULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN TAZEWELL...BUT LIMITING
FACTOR COULD BE THE LOWER CLOUD COVER. WILL REFERAIN FROM ISSUING
A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...AS I ONLY SEE A SMALL WINDOW OF
TIME THAT ANY ADVISORY WINDS WOULD OCCUR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
SHOWERS AS THEY COME IN ALONG WITH THE MAX LLJ AT 8H IN THE
MORNING FOR POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SFC.

FINALLY...AS FOR FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...18Z MODELS STILL
VARY SOMEWHAT ON THE BULLSEYE OF HIGHEST QPF...BUT GENERAL
CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE 1-2 INCHES+ ACROSS THE ERN 2/3DS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING TIL TUE MORNING...WITH MOST FALLING FROM
SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SOME FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT.

WILL KEEP THE FLOOD AND WIND ISSUES MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

KEPT LOWS TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE WITH SOME
COOLER TEMPS EARLY B4 CLOUDS SET IN AS DEWPOINTS ARE STILL HOLDING
IN THE 20S IN SOME PLACES.

BEST LIFT ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL RESULT
IN RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHSIDE VA. WENT WITH HPCQPF AND HIGHS
CLOSE TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE WITH READINGS GENERALLY FROM THE MID
40S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH OCCLUDING PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER
THE OH VALLEY AT THE OUTSET OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE POSITION OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
EARLY MONDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A NEW LOW ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
FOOTHILLS. BY LATE MONDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE WITH A LOW NEAR
THE VA CAPES AND HEADING NORTHEAST. EVENTUAL TRACK WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON
QPF OBVIOUSLY BUT A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT SEEMS TO
BE IN THE OFFING. QPF IN THE GRIDS MOSTLY FOLLOWED HPC 18Z UPDATE
WHICH YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE 48-HR PERIOD
ENDING MONDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DISCUSSED BELOW.
HEAVIER QPF TAPERS OFF LATER MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. SOME WARP-AROUND SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS
BARELY SCRAPE 0C MIDDAY TUESDAY IN THE FAR NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A QUIETER WEEK AHEAD AFTER THE EXITING COASTAL SYSTEM WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE EASTER WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED WARMUP AS
H85 TEMPS BUILD INTO THE MID-TEENS. COULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S
IN THE PIEDMONT AND MID-70S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THU-FRI TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW CLOUDS
THRU EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN AXIS OF MVFR NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
BETWEEN 07-10Z. STRONG LOW LVL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT SO MAINTAINED GOING LLWS AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN KBLF
WHERE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE MENTION. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z AND THEN
PERSIST THIS MORNING.

LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP THEN WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AM EXPECTING LOW CIGS SUB 1KFT AT MOST TAF SITES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ROANOKE/LYH AND LWB. THE COOLER WEDGE WILL
BREAK IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN AND WITH
STEADIER MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS EXPECTED...VSBYS COULD
RANGE FROM 1-3SM...BUT CIGS WILL JUMP UP ABOVE 1KFT DURING THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION. MOST THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NC/VA BORDER AREA TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON BUT COULD SNEAK NORTH
TOWARD KLYH THSI EVENING SO ADDED CB THERE AND KEPT BUT ADJUSTED
TIMING A BIT AT KDAN. OTRW POOR FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON
WITH LOTS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE WEST AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL IN THE EAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW TO PERHAPS MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ESPCLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY
OR EVEN MONDAY NIGHT WITH STILL A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK ON TUESDAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY WEDNESDAY WHEN INCREASED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE TAKES
SHAPE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ERN 2/3DS
OF THE CWA. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME
FRAME...SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
JAMES...ROANOKE AND DAN RIVERS. THIS FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MARGINAL AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...AS TO WHICH
BASIN COULD GET THE MOST. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE EXPECTED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1106 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2010

NCZ002-003-019-020-VAZ011>014-016-017-WVZ043>045-290315-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
CARROLL-FLOYD-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
1106 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009-010-015-WVZ042-290315-
ASHE-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GRAYSON-MERCER-
1106 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST UP T0 50 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-VAZ018>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-290315-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1106 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. WATER
PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN ALONG JAMES...ROANOKE AND DAN RIVERS...INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.