Alert archive / New Jersey / Small Craft Advisories in 2010
Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this small craft advisory at Jan 24, 2010, 12:04 AM EST. It was in force for 23 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 24, 2010, 12:04 AM EST (05:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 24, 2010, 11:27 PM EST
- In force
- 23 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
883 WHUS71 KPHI 240504 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1204 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ANZ450-241030- /O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-100124T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0009.100124T0504Z-100124T2300Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0002.100124T2300Z-100125T2100Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 1204 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEAS, MOSTLY A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL, WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET FOR A TIME SUNDAY. THE SEAS AND WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE STARTING AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 15 FEET BY MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL VESSEL...SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED, BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. && $$ ANZ451>455-241030- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-100124T2300Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0002.100124T2300Z-100125T2100Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 1204 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE STARTING AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 15 FEET BY MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL VESSEL, SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED, BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. && $$ ANZ430-431-241030- /O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0002.100124T2300Z-100125T2100Z/ DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 1204 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STARTING AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS AROUND 7 FEET NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY BY MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED, BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. && $$
3 follow-up statements
731 WHUS71 KPHI 240821 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 321 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ANZ451>455-242130- /O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-100125T0500Z/ /O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0002.100124T2300Z-100125T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0002.100125T0500Z-100125T1700Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 321 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND INCREASES. A ROBUST WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ450-242130- /O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-100125T0500Z/ /O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0002.100124T2300Z-100125T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0002.100125T0500Z-100125T1700Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 321 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND INCREASES. A ROBUST WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ430-431-242130- /O.EXB.KPHI.SC.Y.0008.100124T2200Z-100125T0500Z/ /O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0002.100124T2300Z-100125T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0002.100125T0500Z-100125T1700Z/ DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 321 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE SEAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STARTING MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL TEND TO FUNNEL UP THE BAY, AND WITH A ROBUST WIND FIELD MOVING ACROSS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ GORSE
485 WHUS71 KPHI 242008 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 308 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ANZ451>455-251000- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-100125T0500Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0002.100125T0500Z-100125T1700Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 308 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ450-251000- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-100125T0500Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0002.100125T0500Z-100125T1700Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 308 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ430-431-251000- /O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0008.100124T2008Z-100125T0500Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0002.100125T0500Z-100125T1700Z/ DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 308 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
543 WHUS71 KPHI 250427 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1127 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ANZ451>455-251030- /O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-100125T0500Z/ /O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0002.100125T0424Z-100125T1700Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 1127 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ450-251030- /O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-100125T0500Z/ /O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0002.100125T0427Z-100125T1700Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 1127 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ430-431-251030- /O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-100125T0500Z/ /O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0002.100125T0427Z-100125T1700Z/ DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 1127 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 23, 8:10 PM EST, 3 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 23, 8:10 PM EST, 3 hours 54 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
810 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT EASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SLOWLY EAST
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A STORM MAY BRUSH OUR AREA JUST TO
THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WE HAD TO ADJUST THE MINIMUM AND HOUR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER SUNDOWN, TEMPERATURES REALLY FELL IN MANY AREAS
AND EITHER HAVE COME CLOSE TO, OR SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY NOW THEY HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT AND CLOUDS WILL BE FILTERING IN OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST
AREAS STILL COULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES OVERNIGHT BEFORE RISING
TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT WITH
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
PRETTY NICE DAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND THE
NORMAL FOR TIME OF MONTH. THE OCEAN STORM STILL MAKING AN IMPACT ON
THE MARINE SIDE BUT JUST PUSHING SOME SC ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE. SNOW COVER CLEARLY SEE IN NORTHERN AREAS INTO
CANADA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MID 20S TO THE FREEZING MARK SOUTH AND EAST. AS FOR THE
MONTH SO FAR, ONLY GED AND TTN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. IT WILL
BE A REAL FIGHT TO THE END TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH ABOVE/BELOW WE'RE
GOING TO BE AS TEMPERATURES RUN UP NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN COOL
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND THEN A SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AND IT IS GOING TO GET PRETTY WET AROUND HERE. FOR
THAT REASON, WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE ATTENDANT OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDS DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF GULF AIR RUNNING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE 80H JET IN EXCESS OF 60 KT WITH THE GFS
SPORTING AN 85KT JET FROM SOUTHERN DELAWARE THROUGH SANDY HOOK NJ
AT 12Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 KT AND THIS WILL STEAL ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC SIDE. DURING OUR LAST RAIN EVENT, WE WERE ABLE TO
TAPE THE GULF STREAM MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS JUMPED INTO THE MID
50S NORTH TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THIS FUEL THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE
SURROUNDING THE LOW THAT BOTTOM MED OUT AT 29.28INCHES. IN THIS
CASE HOWEVER, THE ORIENTATION OF THE ECHOES WILL BE NARROW BANDED
AND RUNNING NORTH SOUTH WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. NEEDLESS
TO SAY, WITH THE WIND PROFILE AHEAD THERE MAY BE SOME POWER WINDS
DROP OUT OF THE SKY IN A HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELL AND THIS WILL BE
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THE OMEGA PROFILE IS SHOWING THE LIFT FROM THE 80H 80-85 KT WINDS
AND A SECOND AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG
FIELD AND IS GOING TO BECOME ONE LONG OMEGA FIELD WITHOUT ANY
INTERRUPTION OR BREAKS SUGGESTING THAT THIS IS A PRIME SET UP FOR
TRAINING ECHOES. IN THE PAST THE FIELD SOMETIMES BECOMES DISJOINTED
AS A LOW FORMS FARTHER SOUTH AND SHUTS OFF THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR. HERE WE SEE A CLEAR ASSOCIATION WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF STREAM INFLUENCE. K VALUES AROUND 33
OR 34. THE PW'S ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WITH THE SETUP WE CAN EASILY
SEE THREE INCHES. THE MAX MODEL PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING IS 2.72 INCHES AND THE NAM 3.21 AND ECMWF 2.74-4.1.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
KICK THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE WITH A COUPLE OF WIND SHIFT LINES
PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE SOME
PRECIPITATION LEFT BEHIND AS THE COLD AIR IS MOVING ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND IT WILL CHANGE SOME OF THE LIQUID TO MIXED SNOW
AND RAIN BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE UPPER CYCLONIC
FLOW OPENS UP TO A BROAD FLOW AND WILL TAP MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
UPPER PLAINS AND BRING IT TO THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. AS I SAID, IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE AS TO
WHETHER WE END JANUARY ON A ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE SCHEME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER TO
START WITH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT ENDS WITH A BRUSH FROM A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY.
REMARKABLY GOOD...EVEN SCARILY GOOD...AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
12Z GFS AND THE ECMWF IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG TERM...
MEANING THAT THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE STORM LATE IN THE WEEK ON
OUR SOUTHERN BORDER...OR TO POINTS JUST SOUTH...AS IT EXITS THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS BE DUE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DRIVING THE LOW MORE IN AN EAST
DIRECTION, AS OPPOSED TO UP THE COAST. BUT, IF THERE IS MORE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THIS MAY CURVE THE STORM
FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH TIME. AND, SINCE THE MODELS MAY OSCILLATE
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS MODELS ARE WONT TO DO, IT
SEEMS PRUDENT TO MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL MESH WITH HPC AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AS WELL. FOR NOW, PROBABILITIES WILL JUST BE A
GENERALLY LOW 30 PERCENT. ITS LOGICAL TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT TIME AND
EVENTS MAY DICTATE GROWTH IN POPS SOUTH AND LESSENING OF POPS NORTH
IF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS BEAR FRUIT.
AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S
SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN AND MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL ZONES...A MIX WAS USED FROM CENTRAL DELAWARE UP TO
EAST-CENTRAL NEW JERSEY..AND RAIN WAS USED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THEN, AT NIGHT, WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING, THIS
WAS SHADED TO COLDER PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW, EXCEPT A
MIX FOR MARINE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BLEND WITH
CLIMATOLOGY AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD START OUT AROUND OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT QUICKLY DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND PRETTY
MUCH STAY THAT WAY FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH AND MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS THIS EVENING...AND SOME
STRATOCUMULUS OVER FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...WE START WITH VERY NICE
FLYING CONDITIONS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE STRATOCUMULUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENCROACH
ON OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS MODEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES IT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WE FIRST EXPECT THICKER HIGH CLOUDS, AND THEN MID CLOUDS
TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT, AND THEN BY 18Z SUNDAY WE WILL
FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DUE TO CEILINGS. THE TWO
NORTHWESTERN SITES MAY BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT RAIN BY THEN. RAIN SHOULD
MOVE INTO PHL BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SUNDAY, WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR AFTER A FEW HOURS...IN THE 20Z TO 24Z TIME FRAME.
WINDS START AS LIGHT FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP SOME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BY 18Z /IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE/, AND A BIT MORE BY 24Z /IN THE 10
TO 20 KT RANGE/. SOME GUSTS WEER CARRIED ESPECIALLY BY 00Z MONDAY.
THERE CERTAINLY IS GOING TO BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT
DEVELOPING BY 18Z SUNDAY, BUT AT PRESENT THE GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING
A VECTOR DIFFERENCE OF 10 KTS PER 100 FT THROUGH A 200 FT LAYER
SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWEST 2000 FT /THE DEFINITION OF LLWS/, SO WE'RE
NOT GOING TO FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THE ACTIVE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE
TAF SITES INTO MONDAY WITH LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN THAT MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES AND SOME HINTS OF SLANTWISE CONVECTION AT THE SOUTHERN
SITES, SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON A
MODERATE WEST WIND, ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MAY
BRING SOME MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS IN STRATOCUMULUS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS /ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST/. WEST WINDS ALSO SHOULD
PICK UP SOME IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
WE START WITH SUB-ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS, BUT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THESE SEAS ARE
MAINLY SWELLS DUE TO THE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT
FOR MOST PLACES THEY HAVE A LONG WAY TO SUBSIDE IF WE WERE TO CANCEL
THE PRESENT ADVISORY.
WE DO EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND MAY LIMIT THAT TREND.
FOR THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO
LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS THEN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE BY DUSK ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THAT, THE MODELS ARE TAKING A SWATH OF 60 KT OR
GREATER WINDS AT H925 OVER THE WATERS SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MIDDAY MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE,
THESE VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT GALE FORCE
GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WE THEREFORE ARE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS THAT SEAS MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 15 FT AT THEIR HIGHEST, AND THIS MAY NOT BE TOO FAR
OFF.
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY, WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE, BUT PERHAPS NOT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY AND WEST WINDS PICK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN.
&&
.TIDES / COASTAL FLOODING...
WE START NEAR NEAP TIDE FOR THIS EVENT, BUT WE ALSO START WITH
RATHER LARGE POSITIVE ANOMALIES THAT SHOULD DROP SOMEWHAT IN THE
NEAR TERM, BUT LIKELY NOT TO NEAR-ZERO VALUES. ONCE THE NORTHEAST
WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE WIND DIRECTION FACTOR IN
GENERATING POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES DECREASES /BUT PROBABLY DOESN'T
DROP TO ZERO/ ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WE HAVE RUN SOME NUMBERS
THROUGH A LOCAL ALGORITHM FOR A REPRESENTATIVE ATLANTIC COASTAL
SITE, AND IT DOES NOT GIVE DEPARTURES SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING /ALTHOUGH IT GIVES DEPARTURES WELL IN EXCESS OF
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GUIDANCE/. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS, BUT OUR
PRESENT FEELING IS THAT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SITES WON'T HAVE A
COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEM EXCEPT POSSIBLY DURING THE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE IF HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING.
WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONCERN REGARDING DELAWARE BAY, CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. FOR THESE LOCATIONS, A SOUTHEAST WIND
IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. IT PRESENTLY SEEMS THAT THE MONDAY MORNING
/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE/ HIGH TIDE WOULD
BE THE ONE OF MOST CONCERN IF WINDS HAVEN'T SHIFTED TO WEST IN TIME.
THE PREVIOUS ONE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES, AND WE WOULD
NEED DEPARTURES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 3 FT TO REACH MINOR FLOODING
LEVELS THEN. WE WILL PUT OUR CONCERNS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
COASTAL NJ ZONES AND TWO SOUTHERN DE/MD ZONES. THINKING IS THE AXIS
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THIS REGION FOR MOST OF THE EVENT.
SPEAKING WITH MARFC(ANDREW) AFTER RUNNING 1.96 TO 2.37 PRECIPITATION
INTO MODEL SEVERAL OF OUR SMALLER STREAMS WILL REACH CAUTIONARY
STAGE AND SOME MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY. AGREED TO REVISIT
THIS ON SUNDAY WITH THE CREST FORECAST FALLING WITHIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT THAT TIME. DURING OUR LAST FLOOD EVENT WE WERE USING THE
MARCHALL-PALMER Z-R AND OUR 3 HR AND STORM TOTALS WERE 3 INCHES AND
6 TO 8 INCHES. GROUND TRUTH WAS SOMEWHERE AROUND 3 INCHES. WE WILL
RUN WITH MP Z-R AGAIN BUT AT SOME POINT MAY SWITCH TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION(DC) IF WE START TO GET TSTMS. THE FREEZING LEVEL THIS
TIME WILL BE AROUND 10,000 FT. FREEZING LEVEL ON THE 17TH WAS AROUND
9,500 SO WE'LL SEE WHAT SIMILARITIES THERE ARE IN THE RADAR/FFMP
TOTALS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ450.
&&
SYNOPSIS.../ROBERTSON/EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM.../
AVIATION.../DELISI
MARINE.../DELISI
TIDES.../
HYDROLOGY...EBERWINEHazardous weather outlook, Jan 23, 3:56 PM EST, 8 hours 8 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 356 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010 MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-242100- CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER- CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- 356 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. SOME HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS MUCH AS TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL CAUSING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS TO REACH THE CAUTIONARY OR FLOOD STAGE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ002-003-MDZ019-020-NJZ021-023-242100- KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-TALBOT-CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-CAPE MAY- 356 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS. THE HIGHEST OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES ON MONDAY AT CAPE MAY WILL BE 230 AM ON THE BAYSIDE; 600 AM AT REEDY PT DELAWARE; 850 AM AT PHILADELPHIA; 1130 AM AT CAMBRIDGE MARYLAND, AND 230 PM AT TOLCHESTER BEACH MARYLAND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ001-MDZ012-015-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-242100- NEW CASTLE-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 356 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS. THE HIGHEST OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES ON MONDAY AT CAPE MAY WILL BE 230 AM ON THE BAYSIDE; 600 AM AT REEDY PT DELAWARE; 850 AM AT PHILADELPHIA; 1130 AM AT CAMBRIDGE MARYLAND, AND 230 PM AT TOLCHESTER BEACH MARYLAND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ004-NJZ013-014-020-022-025>027-242100- DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC- COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- 356 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ451>455-242100- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 356 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GALE WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ450-242100- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 356 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ431-242100- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 356 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ430-242100- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 356 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 3:21 AM EST | Gale Warning | PHI | 36 hr | |
| Jan 24, 11:17 AM EST | Coastal Flood Advisory | PHI | Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem | 29 hr |
| Jan 24, 11:37 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | PHI | Sussex | 3 hr |
| Jan 24, 3:13 PM EST | Wind Advisory | PHI | Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 10 more | 22 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in New Jersey, 2010Every small craft advisory in 2010
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.