Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS St. Louis, MO

984 
WGUS73 KLSX 262223
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
523 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

MOC051-151-270030-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-100727T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE MO-COLE MO-
523 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLE AND
OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 517 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT THE WATER HAD 
RECEDED FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL AND THAT THERE WERE NO KNOWN 
ROAD CLOSURES AT THIS TIME.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO 
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEXT TWO 
HOURS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING INCLUDE... 
LINN...CHAMOIS...RICH FOUNTAIN...TAOS AND WESTPHALIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF CAN CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS... 
COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE 
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3836 9220 3847 9217 3859 9198 3860 9195
      3867 9186 3870 9166 3854 9166 3829 9202
      3829 9220

$$

BRITT

591 
WGUS73 KLSX 262354
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
654 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

MOC051-151-270010-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-100727T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE MO-COLE MO-
654 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLE
AND OSAGE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3836 9220 3847 9217 3859 9198 3860 9195
      3867 9186 3870 9166 3854 9166 3829 9202
      3829 9220

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1130 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

.UPDATE...
/1103 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010/

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS SLOWLY
ADVECTING BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE CAN
EASILY BE IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BEING ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW ACROSS TEXAS AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NOTHING REMAINS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BONNIE.

LOOKING AT LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...RUC...AND HRRR IT APPEARS
BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE LITTLE CIN IS LEFT AND CAPES OF AROUND
3000 J/KG EXIST. FURTHER EAST THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY...WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

I DON'T EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WITH SUCH A TROPICAL
SOUNDING. IN FACT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO
INCHES AGAIN AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THIS OCCURS OVER ANY URBAN BASINS...SUCH AS
COLUMBIA.

CVKING

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/304 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010/

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM IS PCPN CHANCES
TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH ACROSS REGION AND REMNANTS OF T.S. BONNIE THAT WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

FOR TODAY...WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...SO BACKED
OFF ON POPS EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN 8 COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO FIRE UP JUST NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN
INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS TO
THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND PCPN...TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FEEL THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO POPS
TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET...THEN SEE DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

BY TUESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEEL
THAT ONCE AGAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO PCPN TO TAPER
OFF TOWARDS SUNSET.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BE BACK IN FULL FORCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY.

OTHERWISE...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SINK TO THE SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
AT THIS TIME.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
/1127 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT KCOU. SOUTHEAST WIND TO GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...APPEARS BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SCT-
BKN DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND BECOMING SOUTH
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
936 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
936 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
MISSOURI. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS WELL AS PART OF THE LA MOINE RIVER. SEE THE
APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 DEGREES OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS WELL AS PART OF THE LA MOINE RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING