Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
938 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY....BRINGING HIGH
WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...
USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE JUMPING AHEAD OF THE CDFNT/CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. UPPED TEMPS IN THE W A CAT OR TWO TO THE MID 70S. REST OF
FCST LOOKS GOOD...INCLUDING TIMING OF CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. AFTER THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARDS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY. THE BOUNDARY MAY EVENTUALLY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BUT THAT WOULD BE BEYOND THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND PIVOT INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS
MORNING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING IN CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS LKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SEEP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTN. HAVE THIS FRONT INTO WESTERN OHIO 18-19Z AND TO THE CMH TAF
SITES AROUND 21Z. MVFR CIGS MAY BECOME VFR FOR A PERIOD BY MIDDAY
BEFORE MVFR CIGS RE-DEVELOP DURG THE DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A NARROW
TONGUE OF HIGHER INSTABILITIES ALONG THE FRONT...SO EXPECT A LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. WITH 3-5K FOOT WINDS INCREASING
INTO THE 40 TO 60 KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING...GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY. EXPECT PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
944 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-271345-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
944 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...TORNADO WATCH 722 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   HIGH WIND WARNING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...PUSHING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE...CONTAINING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SITES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1125 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CONNERSVILLE            39.66N 85.14W
10/26/2010                   FAYETTE            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNE KITCHEL           39.76N 84.84W
10/26/2010  M59.00 MPH       WAYNE              IN   AWOS

            MEASURED AT RICHMOND AWOS /KRID/

&&

HATZOS