Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

147 
WWUS55 KFGZ 082037
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
137 PM MST SUN AUG 8 2010

AZC005-082200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-100808T2200Z/
COCONINO AZ-
137 PM MST SUN AUG 8 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MST
FOR NORTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY...

AT 131 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 29 MILES SOUTH OF FREDONIA...OR 34 MILES SOUTH OF KANAB...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN A LINE FROM FREDONIA 
SOUTH TO THE KANAB CREEK WILDERNESS. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD 
TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 11213 3699 11212 3644 11259 3646 11263
      3654 11266 3660 11262 3667 11264 3677 11261
      3679 11262 3695 11253 3700 11254 3701 11253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 210DEG 14KT 3656 11261

$$

NP

494 
WWUS55 KFGZ 082137
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
237 PM MST SUN AUG 8 2010

AZC005-082140-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-100808T2200Z/
COCONINO AZ-
237 PM MST SUN AUG 8 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY 
IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF 
THE AREA...THUS THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...THUS RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD PAY 
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF 
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP OR IF NEW WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. 

PLEASE REPORT ANY HAIL OR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THAT MAY HAVE BEEN 
OBSERVED TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT 
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU CAN ALSO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER 
ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. 

&&

LAT...LON 3700 11213 3699 11212 3644 11259 3646 11263
      3654 11266 3660 11262 3667 11264 3677 11261
      3679 11262 3695 11253 3700 11254 3701 11253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 210DEG 14KT 3675 11247

$$

NP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
944 AM MST SUN AUG 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.  A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MONSOON MOISTURE
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST HAS BROUGHT MUCH DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS MORNING. THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED MOST OF THE DRYING ABOVE
550 MB. THE TOTAL DRYING WAS 0.15 INCHES...BUT THAT BRINGS US TO
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STORM MOTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 14 KTS. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION 330 AM MST...WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING HAS DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER APACHE COUNTY. TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER LOS ANGELES. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITH THE TROUGH HAD PRODUCED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOHAVE COUNTY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FALLING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. PATCHY FOG IS
EVIDENT...A RESULT OF YESTERDAYS RAINFALL THAT REACHED ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TODAY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
YAVAPAI COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT DRYING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...SAVE FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
TSTORM CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO IN YAVAPAI COUNTY...AROUND 10 PERCENT
FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD...AND 30 PERCENT FOR THE WHITE MTNS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PROGS SHOW DRY AND RATHER STABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MOST OVER THE NORTHLAND....WITH MOISTURE REMAINING
ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS. MOST AREAS FROM FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD WILL
PROBABLY DRY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT LOW POPS (5-10 PCT) FOR
THESE AREA FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY REMOVE THEM IF MODEL
TRENDS PERSIST. FROM WEDS. THROUGH SATURDAY...PROGS NOW ARE
SPREADING MOISTURE SLOWLY WESTWARD IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE 4 CORNERS. WE DID BUMP UP POPS A FEW
POINTS STARTING WEDNESDAY AND WILL GO HIGHER SHOULD MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD START A WARMING TREND ON MONDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 19Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECT TO DIMINISH
AFT 03Z MONDAY. DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

PUBLIC..................DL/MAS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CLARK

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1014 AM MST SUN AUG 8 2010

AZZ004>018-037>040-090730-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1014 AM MST SUN AUG 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AMPLE MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. RAINFALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED MODERATE FOR MOST
AREAS AS STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. FEWER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY AS DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY.
HOWEVER...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE STRONGER STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND LARGER HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BY MONDAY....DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAS