Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE STATE.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR WEAKENING AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE
MORE STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...MORE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY AS
CAPES INCREASE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AROUND
THE UPPER TROUGH. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE MOVING EAST INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN BORDER FOR SATURDAY. DRY FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MAV/MET COMPROMISE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON LOW PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
DEEPENING WESTWARD. THIS PUTS GEORGIA IN A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH MOISTURE CIRCULATING INTO THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATE...
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MOVING ACROSS N AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THE MAIN
PROBLEM. CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVY PRECIP
ALONG WITH VARIABLE WINDS 10-15G20-25 KTS UNTIL THE MAIN CONVECTION
PASSES. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND DIEING CONVECTION. CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO POP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ESE
BECOMING SSE 5-10 KTS EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
CONVECTION. BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  65  87  63  92 /  70  40  20  10   5
ATLANTA         81  66  86  66  91 /  60  30  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  60  83  58  87 /  80  50  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    79  62  87  58  91 /  70  20   5  10   5
COLUMBUS        88  67  91  69  95 /  40  20  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     78  65  85  65  89 /  70  50  10  10   5
MACON           88  66  90  65  94 /  50  30  10  10   5
ROME            81  64  89  59  95 /  70  20   5  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  62  87  61  91 /  60  20  10   5   5
VIDALIA         88  69  88  70  91 /  40  40  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-220900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-
NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-POLK-
PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-
TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-
TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-
WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-WILKINSON-
430 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL EITHER MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OR REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MURRAY COUNTY TO CARROLL COUNTY AND WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
CAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. WILL EXPERIENCE 35 TO
40 KNOTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR THAT COULD AFFECT FAR
NORTHWEST GEORGIA. THIS WILL GIVE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EMERGENCY MANAGERS
SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION.

BDL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
611 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

GAZ053-054-056-067>069-079-211045-
611 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN TALBOT...
UPSON...PIKE...MERIWETHER...SPALDING...COWETA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 AM EDT...

AT 607 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HARALSON TO FLINT HILL...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TALBOT...UPSON...PIKE...MERIWETHER...SPALDING...COWETA AND
FAYETTE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE RALEIGH...HARRIS CITY...WOOSTER...IMLAC...
ALVATON...WOODBURY...WARM SPRINGS...GAY...HARALSON...SENOIA...FLINT
HILL...DIGBEY...MANCHESTER...BROOKS AND CONCORD. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.