Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...

&&

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF WAS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER FEATURE HAS ALLOWED A 992MB
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI BUT WAS MOVING AWAY
FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA. A DRY LINE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW
GENERALLY INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM NEAR HALEYVILLE TO NEAR EUFAULA. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET HAS KICKED THE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SUBSEQUENT
INSTABILITIES TO AT LEAST MODERATE LEVELS BETWEEN THESE SURFACE
FEATURES. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN FORMING IN MISSISSIPPI
WHERE INSTABILITIES ARE MAXIMIZED BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN
INTENSITY AS THEY ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP
ON THE ENVIRONMENT WHILE INSTABILITIES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE. STILL
BELIEVE WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST RISK BETWEEN THESE TWO
SURFACE FEATURES WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN DRY LINE AND
PARTIAL CLEARING ZONE NEAR THE STATE LINE. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AS THE SUN SETS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC
SHEAR AND BUOYANCY VALUES...STRONG TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...PRECIP WATER
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TORNADO DAMAGE
HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. PLEASE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR WEATHER RADIO WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL EXPECTING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. BEST COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z
WILL BE AROUND MGM AND TOI. COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE SITES WILL
BE SCATTERED. AFTER 06Z...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO LIFR BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP JUST YET.

VFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

10/ARM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010/

DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF WAS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER FEATURE HAS ALLOWED A 993MB
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A DRY LINE EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW GENERALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR HAMILTON TO NEAR
MONTGOMERY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS KICKED THE MOISTURE LEVELS
AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITIES TO AT LEAST MODERATE LEVELS BETWEEN
THESE SURFACE FEATURES. THEREFORE...THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH 3
PM...SLOWLY INCREASING EASTWARD THROUGH 8 PM. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 70
MPH OR GREATER FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. TORNADO DAMAGE HAS
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
OR WEATHER RADIO WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

A FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT MAINLY TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONAL TRENDS.

75

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
IS IN A MODERATE RISK TODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN LOCATIONS IN A HIGH RISK.

A SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST TODAY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A PRIME LOCATION FOR LONG LIVED
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY AS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. IN
ADDITION...AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR ALL
COUNTIES BEGINNING AT 9 AM.

A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION WITH DETAILS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE OUT
SOON. CONTINUE TO CHECK OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SHORT
TERM PRODUCTS /GRAPHICASTS/ FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CLOSED LOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AS IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS. WEAK ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY. COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY WX. CLOSED
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND BE ABSORBED BY LONGWAVE
TROUGH. A SHORT WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CARRY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...BUT FEATURE SHOULD NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO
WARRANT POPS.

RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-251100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
659 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE WEST OF I-65 AND NORTH
OF I-20.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY OVERNIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
601 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ046-049-050-242345-
BARBOUR-BULLOCK-PIKE-
601 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARBOUR...BULLOCK AND PIKE COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOSHEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
604 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ013-023-242330-
FAYETTE-TUSCALOOSA-
604 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTIES
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 603 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF SAMANTHA...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GORDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MOORES BRIDGE.
  SAMANTHA.
  WINDHAM SPRINGS.
  BOLEY SPRINGS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ014-015-242330-
WALKER-WINSTON-
606 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WALKER AND WINSTON COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 603 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF OAKMAN...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JASPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HOLLY GROVE.
  JASPER.
  CURRY.
  WILSON BEND.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
701 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ012-013-022-250045-
FAYETTE-LAMAR-PICKENS-
701 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE...LAMAR AND PICKENS COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 658 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR ETHELSVILLE...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PINE GROVE.
  ETHELSVILLE.
  MCSHAN.
  MELBORNE.
  SHAW.
  MILLPORT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
753 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     KENNEDY                 33.58N 87.99W
04/24/2010                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED JUST SW OF KENNEDY.

&&

LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
755 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ044>046-250145-
BULLOCK-MACON-MONTGOMERY-
755 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BULLOCK...MACON AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 750 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A CLUSTER
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM FROM EASTERN MONTOGOMERY COUNTY INTO BULLOCK
AND MACON COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PINE LEVEL.
  SHOPTON.
  MITCHELL.
  HARDAWAY.
  LIVERPOOL.
  DAVISVILLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.