Gale Warning 430, NWS Juneau, AK

851 
FZAK67 PAJK 161243 CCA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-170100-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAK WEATHER FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER COAST WILL DRIFT
SW TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH. ARCTIC AIR IN NW CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OUT
TOWARD THE GULF. 

$$

PKZ310-170100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010 

CORRECTED SYNPOSIS 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N OF 58N...E WIND 35 KT. S OF 58N...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
138 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...THE PANHANDLE IS STUCK BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT
WEATHER FEATURES TODAY. IN THE GULF IS A 979 MB LOW THAT IS
DRIFTING S THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER COAST AT THE MOMENT. PERIODS OF SNOW
AND RAIN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF JUNEAU, HAINES, SKAGWAY, AND YAKUTAT DUE TO THE
STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW IN THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE A 1030 MB AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND EASTERN
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST MOUNTAINS IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN THE USUAL
OUTFLOW AREAS EAST OF YAKUTAT, OUT OF CROSS SOUND, AND IN LYNN
CANAL AND SKAGWAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PAJN AND PAGY IS UP
TO 8 MB AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN CYXY AND PAYA IS UP TO 22 MB.
ELDRED ROCK HAS BEEN BLOWING GALE FORCE ALL MORNING WITH 45 KT
GUSTS REACHING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO POINT RETREAT. CAPE SPENCER
HAS ALSO BEEN MEASURING GALE FORCE WINDS AS WELL TODAY.

 PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH IN CANADA CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
EVENTUALLY REACHING 1040 MB. MEANWHILE THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL
BE SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD SO PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH UP TO 10 MB BETWEEN PAJN AND PAGY AND UP TO 23 MB BETWEEN
CYXY AND PAYA. AS A RESULT, WIND ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP FOR THE
PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
MEANWHILE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO STORM
FORCE VALUES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CANAL AND WITH THE COLD
AIR FLOWING OUT OF CANADA A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS ALSO
UP FOR THAT AREA AS WELL. GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREEZING SPRAY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN GLACIER BAY, SOUTHERN LYNN, AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE.

 MEANWHILE THE FRONT JUST OFF SHORE WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTING SOUTH AND THE HIGH IN CANADA KEEP IT
FROM MOVING TOO MUCH FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW
AND RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT BACK TO THE SW. FARTHER NORTH THE
SHOWERS OF SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
EASTERLY. RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THERE IS NOT
MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THAT MOST OF IT WILL
STAY OFFSHORE. THE PRECIP WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING THE EASTERLY FLOW
IN THE NORTH AS WELL.

 MODELS TODAY WERE IN NOT TOO BAD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SEEMED TO DO THE BEST REPRESENTING THE VARIOUS WAVES THAT ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IN THE GULF. THE GFS, UK, AND EC LOOK
LIKE THEY SMOOTHED OUT THOSE FEATURES A LITTLE TOO MUCH. MOST OF
THE MODELS WERE ALSO ABOUT 1 TO 2 MB TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW AS
WELL. DECIDED TO USE THE NAM FOR UPDATES TODAY FOR ITS BETTER
REPRESENTATION OF THE FEATURES IN THE GULF AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG WAVE PATTERN OF LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AK GULF AND
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NW CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO CUT OVER THE WESTERN HIGH. THESE
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE SE INTO THE WESTERN AK GULF MID WEEK. WHILE
THE ALEUTIAN HIGH WILL NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
US...KEEPING OUR WEATHER PATTERN FAIRLY STABLE.

AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE AK GULF WILL TRACK S
TOWARDS THE N PACIFIC AND BE WELL S OF THE PANHANDLE. REMNANTS OF
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THU INTO FRI AND BY THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF NEXT SURFACE FEATURES NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE PRECIP RETURN TO THE NW PANHANDLE LATE MON INTO TUE THEN TRACK
SOUTH.

STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAJOR WEATHER
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS BEEN WELL
ESTABLISHED AND NEXT MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE
PANHANDLE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND LOW IN THE AK GULF, STRONG NORTHERLY AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVY FOR
SKAGWAY AGAIN AND IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED YET AGAIN IF PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE. AS CURRENT LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OUTFLOW WINDS OVER YAKUTAT SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVY LEVELS SO
DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND WIND ADVY THERE. WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL AND
GLACIER BAY WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN GLACIER BAY AND STORM FORCE WINDS IN N LYNN CANAL.
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WITH INNER
CHANNEL WIND GUSTS REACHING UPWARDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. THESE WINDS
WILL BE LOCALIZED SO MOST POPULATED LAND AREAS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THESE HIGH GUSTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW IN AK GULF WILL HAVE MOVED WELL SOUTH.

MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. FELT
NAM INITIALIZED CURRENT LOW CENTER LOCATION WELL BUT MOST MODELS
WERE A BIT WEAK WITH STRENGTH. OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONGER SYSTEMS MOVING OVER THE ALEUTIAN HIGH. STILL SOME
SKEPTICISM REGARDING HOW STRONG THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE BUT MODEL
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN IMPROVING. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE FEATURE DETAILS BY THE WEEKEND. UPDATED
FORECAST TO DAY 4 WITH SOME NAM12 THEN UPDATED REMAINDER OF
FORECAST WITH HPC GUID. HPC LEANING MORE TOWARD EC AND
ENSEMBLES...WHICH WORKED WELL WITH CURRENT MODEL CHOICES. OVERALL
CHANGES WERE FAIRLY MINOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ018.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032>036-041-042.

&&

EAL/PRB