Gale Warning 921, NWS Anchorage, AK

040 
FZAK52 PAFC 041512 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
710 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

UPDATED ZONES 172 AND 175

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050300-
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 MB LOW 50 NM NORTH OF KISKA MOVES 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AT 979 MB AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF. A
995 MB LOW AT 55N 168E DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

PKZ160-050300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   

$$

PKZ165-050300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   

$$

PKZ180-050300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   

$$

PKZ170-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 30 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...NW WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-050300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
710 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING 
TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
710 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-050300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.   

$$

PKZ179-050300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

976 
FZAK52 PAFC 042351
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051500-
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 MB LOW 50 NM EAST OF ADAK WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO 
THE PACIFIC THU NIGHT. A 978 MB LOW NEAR NORTON SOUND WILL 
DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRI 
AND FRI NIGHT. A 999 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR KAMCHATKA FRI AFTERNOON
AND MOVE TO 225 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU SAT AFTERNOON AT 988 MB.

$$

PKZ150-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-051500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...BUILDING TO 19 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...BERING SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-051500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
140 PM AKDT WED NOV 3 2010

.UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS THE
FORECAST REGION TODAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
BERING...ACROSS THE GULF...AND FAR INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND.
TO THE EAST A POTENT RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO
CENTRAL ALASKA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS
TRANSPORTING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARDS TOWARDS
THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. THE STRONG JET SUPPORT AND COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL HELP
TO SUPPORT THE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE OUT WEST...A BROAD RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY QUIESCENT WEATHER.

.SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA IS
QUICKLY MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST AND WILL BE IMPACTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND AND DISSIPATES. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING AN
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM WHILE
RADAR IS INDICATING STEADY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTENSITY OF 959 MB AS IT OCCLUDES. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE COAST AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW WILL HELP TO SUPPORT STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OUT
WEST...WEAK RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WHILE TWO WEAK
LOWS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY
WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES IN THE
SHORT TERM. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THE MAIN FEATURES MOST
CORRECTLY AND IS SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH MODELS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS...THEY ARE CURRENTLY
SHOWING THE SAME BASIC FEATURES WITH THE NEXT GULF LOW MOVING INLAND
INTO THE GULF COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AND A WEAK LOW IN
THE WEST BERING.

.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AS THE LOW AND
FRONT APPROACH THE GULF COAST...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ALONG THE COAST WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW THIS EVENING...THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL USHER IN ENOUGH WARM AIR TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO MOSTLY
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON LOCAL ROADS AS RAIN AND SNOW FALLS ON RESIDUAL SNOW
FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. COLD AIR TRAPPED WITHIN THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY WILL HELP TO PRODUCE STEADY SNOW BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO WESTERN BASIN...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THOMPSON PASS WHERE HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF
WILL STAY TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS OCCURRING.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA HAS A FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING AT DUTCH HARBOR
THIS MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR STEADY RAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH SHEMYA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS IT BRIEFLY INTENSIFIES TO 975 MB
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
AND TROUGHS WILL BE LOWER AMPLITUDE. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
INDICATING ANY MORE STRONG COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...SO EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN TO CONTINUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...131. HIGH WIND WARNING...135.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...120.
         STORM WARNING...125 130 132.
         GALE WARNING...140 141 150 176.

ELN NOV 10