Tornado Warning 86, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS52 KTAE 160017
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
817 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

GAC321-160027-
/O.CAN.KTAE.TO.W.0086.000000T0000Z-091016T0045Z/
WORTH GA-
817 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WORTH COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3178 8379 3181 8379 3182 8377 3181 8362
      3182 8361 3182 8360 3166 8365 3170 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 280DEG 18KT 3181 8378

$$

GAC287-160045-
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0086.000000T0000Z-091016T0045Z/
TURNER GA-
817 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN TURNER COUNTY...

AT 817 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SIBLEY...OR 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF ASHBURN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  OAK GROVE BY 825 PM EDT...
  SIBLEY AND DAKOTA BY 830 PM EDT...
  WORTH BY 835 PM EDT...
  ASHBURN BY 840 PM EDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 82 AND 84

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 8379 3181 8379 3182 8377 3181 8362
      3182 8361 3182 8360 3166 8365 3170 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 280DEG 18KT 3181 8378

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A PRIMARILY ZONAL
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...TO THE NORTH OF ELONGATED
RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN
WILL BE RAPIDLY CHANGING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVELS UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION. BEGINNING TO SEE THE
FIRST SIGNS OF THIS AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BEGINNING TO
DIP SOUTH. EVIDENCE OF THIS ENERGY CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY AND
ALSO EVIDENT BY THE LEADING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION.

QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PARENT ENERGY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY. WITH
SHOWERS/STORM IGNITING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS/AL/GA.
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN AN UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS
PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DOTHAN TO ALBANY AND TIFTON. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE CURRENTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BY EARLY
SATURDAY TO ONE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES AND DEEP TROUGHING ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS VALLEY.
THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER...AS WE SAY GOODBYE TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...AND USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO AMPLIFY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CYCLOGENESIS EVOLVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEA-BOARD...THE SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHWARD.

COLD FRONT WILL IS PROGGED TO REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING TO IMPACT OUR
AREA COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH (KDHN/KABY)
BETWEEN 11PM AND 3AM...AND SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARD KPFN/TLH/KVLD THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DO NOT THINK THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
REACH THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MORE SCT IN NATURE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY STILL IMPACT THESE ZONES OFF THE THE GULF.

AS IT STANDS NOW...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR/SYNOPTIC FORCING/
AND DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT RESULT IN THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS NON-ZERO...AND PROFILES ARE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KVLD TO KTLH AND KAAF. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTH
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST TROUGH OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO AROUND 0 OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REALLY
FEEL THE DIFFERENCE BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES ON SATURDAY WITH
FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY WITH A BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA AND REMAIN STUCK IN THE 60S FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
RATHER CHILLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WE ARE CURRENTLY GOING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MAV NUMBERS (REMEMBERING THE COLD BIAS OF THE
GUIDANCE LAST WINTER). GOING ABOVE THESE NUMBERS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE MARINE LEGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING WINDS TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS. FRONT
WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING FRIDAY WITH
CAUTIONARY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH ITS
PASSAGE. NORTHERLY WIND TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DHN...ABY...AND VLD TERMINALS SHOULD
STAY SOCKED IN ALL AFTERNOON WITH LOW CIGS. DHN AND ABY TERMINALS
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE
FIRST TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY
MORNING. TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE FROPA. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE
SEVERE...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE CELLS THAT
BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING.

MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IN EARLY MORNING AT DHN AND ABY
TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS AND FOG.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DHN AT APPROX 08Z...PFN AT
APPROX 10Z...ABY AT APPROX 11Z...TLH AT APPROX 12Z...AND VLD SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A FROPA AROUND 15Z. AFTER THE FROPA...CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD DRASTICALLY IMPROVE. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO
15KTS AND BECOME OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES MUCH
COOLER...WINDIER...AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS MIGHT FALL
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ON SATURDAY...BUT IT LOOKS TOO CLOSE TO
DEFINITIVELY ISSUE ANY WATCHES YET. UNTIL THEN...WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ALONG WITH ALL
OF THAT...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE
REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   70  80  49  69  43 /  60  50   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   72  80  51  69  46 /  60  50   0   0   0
DOTHAN        64  75  45  63  43 /  60  20   0   0   0
ALBANY        65  75  46  64  41 /  60  20   0   0   0
VALDOSTA      69  80  49  69  43 /  60  50   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    73  82  53  72  44 /  40  60  10   0   0
APALACHICOLA  73  81  52  69  46 /  60  60   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY/BARRY
LONG TERM...FOURNIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
529 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-160930-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
529 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2009 /429 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER
COMBINED WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL FAVOR SHOWERS
ACROSS COASTAL FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY THIS MORNING.
THEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER LATE AFTERNOON
AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT GEORGIA AND FLORIDA.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED... SOME OF
THE STORMS ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT
...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AS WELL AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW
BEHIND IT. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING EARLY WORK
WEEK.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF MEXICO BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS BY FRIDAY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING SEAS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE FELT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S EACH DAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT
AND REPORT ANY CONCERNS TO THE WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
523 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

GAZ155-156-152215-
DECATUR-SEMINOLE-
523 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR DECATUR AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DONALSONVILLE TO WEST BAINBRIDGE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
DONALSONVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAINBRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DONALSONVILLE BY 540 PM EDT.
  BAINBRIDGE BY 545 PM EDT.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

25-CAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
733 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

GAZ157-158-160015-
GRADY-THOMAS-
733 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR GRADY AND THOMAS
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

AT 731 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF CAIRO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

85-GIBBS