Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 281650
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

KSC011-MOC185-217-282100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090328T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-VERNON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
1150 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
BOURBON...ST. CLAIR AND VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 1100 AM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED AN 
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS 
ACROSS BOURBON COUNTY KANSAS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE 
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS 
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3803 9462 3806 9462 3806 9431
      3804 9423 3806 9413 3804 9408 3821 9405
      3822 9353 3818 9351 3795 9352 3792 9353
      3791 9358 3783 9358 3783 9382 3789 9383
      3791 9409 3765 9409 3769 9508

$$

HATCH

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 281850
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
150 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

KSC011-MOC185-217-282100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090328T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-VERNON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
150 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
BOURBON...ST. CLAIR AND VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 148 PM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED 
FLOODING AS A RESULT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

ONE FOOT OF WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE ROAD AT 165TH STREET AND  
HIGHWAY 31 NEAR FULTON. ALSO...WATER WAS COVERING THE ROAD AT 
INTERSECTION OF 185TH STREET AND HIGHWAY 31. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3803 9462 3806 9462 3806 9431
      3804 9423 3806 9413 3804 9408 3821 9405
      3822 9353 3818 9351 3795 9352 3792 9353
      3791 9358 3783 9358 3783 9382 3789 9383
      3791 9409 3765 9409 3769 9508

$$

HATCH

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 282037
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

KSC011-MOC185-217-282046-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090328T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-VERNON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
337 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BOURBON...ST. CLAIR
AND VERNON COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. THE 
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DECREASED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3803 9462 3806 9462 3806 9431
      3804 9423 3806 9413 3804 9408 3821 9405
      3822 9353 3818 9351 3795 9352 3792 9353
      3791 9358 3783 9358 3783 9382 3789 9383
      3791 9409 3765 9409 3769 9508

$$

CLAYCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
704 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
A BLIZZARD WAS ONGOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS TRACKING ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.  A STRONG WARM MOIST TONGUE WAS NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  THIS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
HAD CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPES TO REMAIN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NEAR
THE WICHITA AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.  I THINK THIS WARM AIR
WITHIN THE LOWER TROP WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

DUE TO THE DELAY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED.  THE
WRF WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...WHICH SUGGESTED THAT PRECIPITATION ON
THE NORTH AND WEST FLANK OF THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL BECOME POSITIONED
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SW/WC MISSOURI THROUGH TODAY.  THEREFORE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL OCCUR WEST OF A LINE FROM
JOPLIN TO WARSAW.  STILL THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS COULD RANGE FROM
TWO TO FIVE INCHES IN THIS AREA OF THE OSAGE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST...WHERE A TRACE TO AN INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR SPRINGFIELD...LEBANON...AND ROLLA AREAS.  SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
ONGOING STORM SYSTEM.  SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAYS WEATHER WILL BE DRY
WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE 50S (SUNDAY) AND 60S
(MONDAY).  ANOTHER INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS TRENDED POPS UP...AND ILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND...DESPITE THE FACT THAT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE
LACKING DUE TO THE QUICK APPROACH OF THIS LOW...LEADING TO LITTLE
MOISTURE RECOVERY.  HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW AMOUNTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY GIVEN THE INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.  CERTAINLY NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER LOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND BY FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE STRUGGLING
TO WARM OUT OF THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER BRIEF WARM UP WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWING BY YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE QUICK APPROACH OF
THIS LOW...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL NOT HAVE RECOVERED FROM MONDAY
NIGHTS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FAST
ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIG
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND APPROACH THE OZARKS SOMETIME
WITHIN THE SATURDAY - MONDAY TIME FRAME.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1200 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF AN INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER
THE RED RIVER VLY IN SOUTHEAST OK THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RUNNING
IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR OR HIGH END IFR CATEGORY OVER THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY IFR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND ALLOW THE LOWER LAYER
OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO COOL. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE KJLN AREA BY 18Z
AND IN THE KSGF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HAVE IFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW
IN BOTH TAFS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED BY
GUIDANCE AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ088-
     089-093-094-101-102.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
     SUNDAY FOR MOZ069-079>081-090-091.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
     SUNDAY FOR MOZ057-058-070-071.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ055-056-068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-067-
     077-078.

KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
613 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
613 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
 CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

 RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
 SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVER THE OSAGE PLAINS OF
 EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI.
 ACCUMULATIONS  IN THIS REGION COULD RANGE FROM TWO TO FIVE
 INCHES. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO UP TO WARSAW WILL
 RECEIVE LESSER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO TWO INCHES.

 STORM TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION COULD ADD UP TO TWO INCHES OVER
 EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. FLOODING
 WILL  BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
 MARMATON... LITTLE OSAGE...AND OSAGE RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.  NO SEVERE
 STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER/DSA