Alert archive / New Jersey / Winter Storm Watches in 2009
Winter Storm Watch 7, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this winter storm watch at Dec 17, 2009, 3:30 PM EST for 4 states. It took effect at Dec 19, 2009, 1:00 AM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 17, 2009, 3:30 PM EST (20:30 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 19, 2009, 1:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Dec 18, 2009, 1:14 PM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
All 31 counties
Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1226 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 92 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 28 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS41 KPHI 172030 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 330 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009 ...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA FROM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO OR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW TO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO OR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-180900- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL... MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 330 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO OR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THIS NOR/EASTER MOVES JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WARMER AIR MAY MIX IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND. HOWEVER, AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY EVEN THESE AREAS MAY CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AND RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO AND AT THE COAST. THIS WILL WORSEN TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$
4 follow-up statements
000 WWUS41 KPHI 180312 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1012 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009 ...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. NJZ009-010-012>015-PAZ060-067>069-181000- /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH- MERCER-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...READING... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 1012 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY SATURDAY. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND. THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES, WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$ DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-181000- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL... MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 1012 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AS THE STORM MOVES JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WARMER AIR MAY PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE COAST, KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND. HOWEVER, AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY EVEN THESE LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AND POTENTIALLY RECEIVE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS. THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO AT ALONG THE COAST. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$ GORSE
000 WWUS41 KPHI 180940 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 440 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-182030- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT- CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN- CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 440 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AS THE STORM MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. WARMER AIR MAY PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE COAST... KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND. HOWEVER... AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY EVEN THESE LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AND POTENTIALLY RECEIVE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM. IF THE LOW MOVES MORE TO THE WEST, AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LOWER ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES... WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS... MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO AT ALONG THE COAST. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. $$ DEZ004-182030- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ DELAWARE BEACHES- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...REHOBOTH BEACH 440 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ..WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WARMER AIR SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND. HOWEVER... AS THE STORM PULLS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. $$ NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-182030- /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 440 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY SATURDAY. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND. THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES... WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM. IF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MATERIALIZES, SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE WATCH AREA. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LIGHTER AMOUNTS. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$ NJZ009-010-012>015-PAZ060-067>069-182030- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH- MERCER-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...READING... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 440 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY SATURDAY. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND. THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES... WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM. IF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MATERIALIZES, SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE WATCH AREA. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LIGHTER AMOUNTS. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$
000 WWUS41 KPHI 181537 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1037 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF ALABAMA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-182345- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT- CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN- CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 1037 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AS THE STORM MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. WARMER AIR MAY PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE COAST...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY EVEN THESE LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AND POTENTIALLY RECEIVE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM. IF THE LOW MOVES MORE TO THE WEST... AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LOWER ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO AT ALONG THE COAST. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. $$ DEZ004-182345- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ DELAWARE BEACHES- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...REHOBOTH BEACH 1037 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WARMER AIR SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND. HOWEVER... AS THE STORM PULLS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. $$ NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-182345- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS- LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK... TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN... BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 1037 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND. THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES... WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM. IF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE WATCH AREA. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LIGHTER AMOUNTS. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$ GIGI
000 WWUS41 KPHI 181814 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 114 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN FLORIDA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-190400- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ /O.EXB.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 114 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES... WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM. IF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MATERIALIZES...HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LIGHTER AMOUNTS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. $$ DEZ004-190400- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ DELAWARE BEACHES- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...REHOBOTH BEACH 114 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WARMER AIR SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND. HOWEVER... AS THE STORM PULLS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW WITH FINAL ACCUMULATIONS REACHING 6 TO 8 INCHES. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. $$ NJZ009-010-012>015-PAZ067>069-190400- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH- MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 114 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND WITH FINAL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES LIKELY. THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES... WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM. IF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LIGHTER AMOUNTS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. $$ DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-190400- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT- CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN- CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 114 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AS THE STORM MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. WARMER AIR MAY PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND MAY CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY EVEN THESE LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AND POTENTIALLY RECEIVE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM. IF THE LOW MOVES MORE TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS COULD STILL BE HIGHER. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LOWER ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO AT ALONG THE COAST. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. $$ HEAVENER/GIGI
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Dec 17, 3:30 PM EST, 0 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 3:30 PM EST, 0 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
OUR REGION SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA
TONIGHT...AS THE IMPORTANT WEATHER WITH THE NEXT STORM IS IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
NAM AND GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE PRETTY CLOSE...LENDING
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COLD SOLUTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS RESUMING ITS ACTIVE PHASE, AS A COASTAL
STORM IS TAKING SHAPE AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME HEAVY SNOW
TO OUR REGION FROM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN ALL OF A MIND WITH THIS STORM YET,
WITH THE GFS BEING AN OUTLIER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM TOO FAR
EAST WITH LESS UPPER CYCLOGENESIS. THE 12Z EUROPEAN LENDS SCARY
SUPPORT TO THE NAM, AS THEY SHOW HEAVY SNOW FOR AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, AND POSSIBLY HIGH WINDS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINATION COULD BRING CLOSE TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS, BUT WITH OCEAN TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50, WARMER AIR WILL BLEED SLIGHTLY INLAND AND CAUSE SNOW AND
RAIN AT THE COAST TO CHANGE TO RAIN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS
THOUGHT TO BE MOSTLY FOR SUSSEX DELAWARE, CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY, AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN OCEAN COUNTIES BASED ON
THE EXPECTED FETCH OF THE NORTHEAST WIND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES ALSO SHOW THIS. HOWEVER, AS THE STORM MOVES OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM AND ADDITIONAL SNOW, ALTHOUGH PROBABLY LIGHTER, COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE IN STORM TRACK, STRENGTH, AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW
INTERACTIONS IS STRONG ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
PHILADELPHIA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE OUR 12 HOUR
SNOW CRITERIA IS 4 INCHES. IT IS THESE AREAS THAT ARE THOUGHT TO
ALSO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW, PERHAPS 8 TO
10 INCHES, WITH THE CENTRAL DELMAR AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AREAS
THE MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR THIS. MORE GENEROUS SNOW AMOUNTS COULD
OCCUR IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...SO THESE NUMBERS MAY TURN OUT TO BE
LOW AND THE WATCH MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTGED TO REACH STRONG VALUES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE STRONGER AND
FURTHER WEST NAM AND EUROPEAN VERIFY, COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HIGH
WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT ANOTHER MODEL RUN MAY BEAR OUT THE
NEED FOR ONE.
THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
STORM. THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
====================================================================
PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)
====================================================================
STATION 2IN 4IN 6IN 9IN 12IN
====================================================================
MPO 25 10 <5 <5 <5
ABE 35 15 5 <5 <5
PHL 75 55 30 10 5
ACY 75 55 30 10 5
GED 70 50 25 10 5
====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.
STATION IDENTIFIERS:
MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - ATLANTIC CITY, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LESS IMPORTANT WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM...WHICH
SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A GENERAL COLD NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MIDWEEK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON A
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. A FEW FLURRIES
WERE INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
ANOTHER TROUGH COULD SLIP THROUGH THE AREA LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT, AND WE MAY HAVE TO ADD SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THEN, BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A SCENARIO IS LOW, SO ONLY SOME
FLURRIES NORTH WERE MENTIONED MONDAY. HPC GUIDANCE WAS SUITABLY
COLD AND WAS USED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE LATEST TAFS WILL CONTINUE FORECASTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE TIME PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU IS DISSIPATING, SO DO NOT
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES AND IN FACT PROBABLY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CU AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
SOME GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AT WHICH POINT THE
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO END THE GUSTINESS.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE AIR
MASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG TO FORM EVEN WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS
LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ARRIVING TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND STILL A FAIRLY WIDE MARGIN OF MODEL TRACKS,
HOWEVER MOISTURE HEADING NORTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS AT MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AIRPORTS. ALTHOUGH, ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW, THE BEST
CHANCES ARE FROM THE KPHL TERMINALS SOUTH AND EAST. THE STORM SYSTEM
THEN DEPARTS LATER SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE CONTINUED OVER THE OCEAN THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE
LOWERED THE SCA IN DELAWARE BAY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 25
KT AND THE NNW WIND DIRECTION IS NOT PERMITTING A DOWN THE BAY
CHANNELING FLOW. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT,
THE WINDS ALOFT SHOULD DECREASE AND CAUSE THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE
TO DECREASE AS WELL BY THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. FOR NOW
WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE GFS HAD THE FARTHEST
OFFSHORE SOLUTION VS THE MODEL AVERAGE WE INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS
ABOVE ITS GUIDANCE.
THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON SUNDAY AND WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH, BUT
THEY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD REINFORCE THE NW
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOTION OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE EXPECTED
STRONG NE FLOW, WE SHOULD SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON A LOCAL
STUDY WE HAVE DONE TAKING A WRF AND GFS COMPROMISE AS INPUT.
OBVIOUSLY IF THE ROBUST SOLUTION SHOWED BY THE ECMWF COMES TO
FRUITION, THAT WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE TIDAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION. THE COASTAL AREAS DO GET AS MUCH
OF A BREAK AS THEY CAN AS THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY EVENING WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MAXIMUM ONSHORE FLOW.
SINCE THIS IS STILL A 5TH PERIOD EVENT AND THERE CONTINUES A FAIRLY
WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WE WILL NOT
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM.../
LONG TERM.../
AVIATION...GIGI
MARINE...GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGIHazardous weather outlook, Dec 17, 4:30 AM EST, 11 hours before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 430 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009 DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027- PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-180930- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT- CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 430 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO A POSITION OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. WINTER STORM WATCHES, WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-180930- DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- 430 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO A POSITION OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WINTER STORM WATCHES, WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ430-431-450>455-180930- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 430 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 3:03 PM EST | Gale Watch | PHI | 11 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Watches in New Jersey, 2009Winter Storm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2009Winter Storm Watches in Maryland, 2009Every winter storm watch in 2009
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.