Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WWUS51 KPHI 031111
SVSPHI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
611 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

PAC017-025-077-089-091-095-031118-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SV.W.0235.000000T0000Z-091203T1130Z/
MONTGOMERY PA-LEHIGH PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-CARBON PA-BUCKS PA-MONROE PA-
611 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONROE...BUCKS...EASTERN
CARBON...NORTHAMPTON...EASTERN LEHIGH AND CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

THE STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.


LAT...LON 4135 7468 4121 7438 4118 7438 4108 7449
      4104 7449 4099 7430 4089 7427 4089 7433
      4067 7445 4066 7440 4059 7444 4059 7420
      4049 7426 4045 7424 4028 7487 4034 7495
      4040 7497 4107 7499 4131 7479
TIME...MOT...LOC 1108Z 246DEG 45KT 4126 7512 4028 7492

$$

NJC019-021-023-027-035-037-041-031130-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0235.000000T0000Z-091203T1130Z/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-MERCER NJ-
MIDDLESEX NJ-
611 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM EST
FOR NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHWESTERN MERCER...SOMERSET...
HUNTERDON...MORRIS...EASTERN WARREN AND SUSSEX COUNTIES...

AT 607 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY TO HACKETTSTOWN TO FLEMINGTON 
TO LAMBERTVILLE. THE LINE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 4135 7468 4121 7438 4118 7438 4108 7449
      4104 7449 4099 7430 4089 7427 4089 7433
      4067 7445 4066 7440 4059 7444 4059 7420
      4049 7426 4045 7424 4028 7487 4034 7495
      4040 7497 4107 7499 4131 7479
TIME...MOT...LOC 1108Z 246DEG 45KT 4126 7512 4028 7492

$$

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE
MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO OUR EAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 989 MB LOW OVER LAKE ERIE. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHED FROM THIS LOW TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA, THEN A
WARM FRONT WAS UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. A COLD FRONT WAS DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA ON SOUTHWARD, WHILE A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WAS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN ALABAMA. AN
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A STRONG 300 MB JET FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A LARGE TROUGH WAS
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED
FROM OHIO TO WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
POTENT SHORT WAVE WELL DEFINED WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS OF 08Z. STRONG WAA IS FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHWARD.

A RATHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM AS A TREMENDOUS SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION,
WAA AND A POTENT WIND FIELD ALL TEAMED UP TO PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT.
THE STRONG WAA HAS ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 95 ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD
ARE IN THE 60S ATTM. THE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO SURGED UP AND THE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO LOW, THEREFORE WE WENT CLOSER TO THE RUC
GUIDANCE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ALSO UTILIZED OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
THE LAMP GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY CATCHING ON TO THE MUCH HIGHER DEW
POINTS. THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOSTLY SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THERE HAVE BEEN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE OFF OF THE FORT DIX
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES 55 KNOTS AT 2,000 FEET AS OF 08Z. THE
INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE MAIN ENERGY/WAA SURGE GETS SHUNTED TO OUR EAST. THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY ON AND
WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER EARLY GIVEN THE ISOLATED
POTENTIAL. THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR OVER COOLER WATER APPEARS TO
BE KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE /I.E. LESS
VERTICAL MIXING/ ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THEREFORE WE WILL BE
CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. WE ARE NOTING SOME GUSTS AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 08Z THOUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE BACK EDGE OF THE INTENSE WIND FIELD AND SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED. IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED, THEREFORE WILL CARRY SOME 40 MPH GUSTS FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. WE WILL MONITOR THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THESE COULD TRANSPORT STRONGER
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR A BRIEF TIME.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND
THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOME CAA
SETTLES IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER THIS IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
ENOUGH VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP
SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS /BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA/.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A RATHER TRICKY ONE AS THEY HAVE SPIKED UP
QUITE A BIT ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
AREAS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OF THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THIS
DATE ALREADY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE THIS MORNING
BEFORE SOME LEVELING OFF, HOWEVER THE CAA IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL
THAT STRONG AND WITH THE WIND GOING WESTERLY, SOME DOWNSLOPING WILL
OCCUR. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO RELOAD AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL ENERGIZE A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST. MEANWHILE, THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND TRYING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SOME.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ON THE DECREASE. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
HOWEVER, WE MAY KEEP SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN TEND TO
TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE GULF COAST STATES AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE BECOMES ACTIVE AND AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO PULL AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OUR WAY DURING FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. THINGS
THEN BEGIN TO TURN MORE INTERESTING.

DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AND ENERGIZING A BAROCLINIC ZONE
FROM NEAR THE GULF COAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
THEN WAS SHUNTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WELL TO OUR EAST, PLACING OUR
AREA ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE SHOWING MORE SHARPENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS TENDS TO PULL THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST, ALLOWING THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALSO TO BE PULLED BACK WESTWARD. THE GFS,
NAM/WRF AND UKMET DO SHOW THIS MORE SHARPENING OCCURRING, ALTHOUGH
THE SURFACE LOW ATTM IS NOT FORECAST TO REALLY RAMP UP AS IT TRACKS
EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE WAA FROM ARRIVING INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE EAST, AND THE FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE A MORE
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT TO THE WIND. THE ECMWF ALSO APPEARS A BIT
SHARPER WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
WEDNESDAY GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MORE OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
MEMBERS THAT ARE A CLOSE CALL. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ALSO THE
MODEL PLAN VIEWS OF THE THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE THAT PERHAPS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE A PROBLEM IN MANY AREAS,
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION FALLING. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
ALSO HAS SLOWED SOME PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH IS A
BIT SHARPER NOW. THIS WOULD PLACE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW LITTLE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE INITIALLY, AND
PERHAPS THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COLD GIVEN CLOUDS ON
THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE CLOUDS HOLD OFF AND WE CAN GET
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AWHILE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN THE CLOUDS
ROLL IN, THAT LOW-LEVEL COLDER AIR PERHAPS CAN GET TRAPPED. AN
EXAMINATION OF THE SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS OF THE GFS AND NAM/WRF, DO
INDICATE COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT SNOW ALTHOUGH STILL
THINK SOME RAIN WILL EITHER START OR MIX IN ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE STORM, WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND
CHC SOUTHEASTWARD. WE DID EDGE UP THE POPS SOME ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN AREAS BUT KEPT THEM NO HIGHER THAN CHC ATTM. WE ALSO
CHANGED THE SNOW/RAIN SHOWER WORDING TO SNOW AND/OR RAIN GIVEN THE
FORECAST PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR, ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE TOUGHER AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE DURATION AND INTENSITY COULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE ESPECIALLY IF A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND IT FALLS MOSTLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED. WE
WILL ADD A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ALLOW FOR
MORE ADVERTISEMENT OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY UTILIZED AN EVENLY WEIGHTED BLEND OF
THE GFS AND NAM MOS. HOWEVER, DID LEAN CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS
FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH THE GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM WELL OFFSHORE AND THE ARRIVAL OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY,
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES INTO THE EAST WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TROUGH CAN SHARPEN UP AND ALLOW THE SURFACE
LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY TURN UP THE COAST.

WITH THE COOLER/COLDER AIR, SNOW AND/OR RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THEN
PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM. WE CHANGED THE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WORDING SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SNOW/RAIN WORDING TO MESH WITH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE, ALTHOUGH WE BLENDED IN
A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE 00Z MOSGUIDE FOR SOME FIELDS TO INTRODUCE
SOME NEWER GUIDANCE INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AT 0830Z, CONDITIONS RANGED FROM IFR TO MVFR AT OUR EIGHT TAF SITES.
ALL BUT KRDG AND KABE WERE EXPERIENCING A GUSTY SOUTH WIND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN ABOUT 1000Z AND 1100Z CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR
TAF SITES BY 1300Z OR 1400Z. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE
TEENS AND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BECOME CLEAR AND THE WEST WIND
SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR REGION FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
NIGHT, WILL RACE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IT SHOULD REACH THE MARITIME
PROVINCES BY THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ON DELAWARE BAY, THE GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 1:00 PM AND ON
DELAWARE BAY UNTIL 9:00 AM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ONCE THE GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST,
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON MAY RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT OCCURS
BETWEEN 7:15 AND 8:15 AM. HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS AND ALONG
DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER THAN IT DOES ON THE OCEANFRONT.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST FOR TODAY. AS A
RESULT, NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ013-
     014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GORSE/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-040900-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
400 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST STATES
FRIDAY, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND TO OUR EAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO OUR COAST. COLDER AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-NJZ013-014-020>027-040900-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
400 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST STATES
FRIDAY, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND TO OUR EAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO OUR COAST. COLDER AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ012-040900-
MIDDLESEX-
400 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST STATES
FRIDAY, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND TO OUR EAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO OUR COAST. COLDER AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-040900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
400 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-040900-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
400 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

NJZ017>020-022-027-PAZ067>071-030845-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...HAMMONTON...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
144 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...MODERATE RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION...

AT 140 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DELMARVA. EVEN THOUGH THE AREA
OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST, IT WAS STILL CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PONDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION WERE GUSTING
IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES. THESE WINDS COULD PULL DOWN SOME
TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

KRUZDLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
207 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-030915-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
207 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...

AT 200 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST-
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW
JERSEY. EVEN THOUGH THE AREA OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST, IT WAS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PONDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION WERE GUSTING
IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES. THESE WINDS COULD PULL DOWN SOME
TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

KRUZDLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

DEZ003-004-030915-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-INLAND SUSSEX DE-
315 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...A SHOWER WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT SUSSEX COUNTY...

AT 314 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SHOWER WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF SALISBURY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE SHOWER WILL BE NEAR FRANKFORD AROUND
330 AM...MILLSBORO AND DAGSBORO AROUND 335 AM...LONG NECK AROUND 350
AM...HENLOPEN ACRES...REHOBOTH BEACH AND DEWEY BEACH AROUND 405
AM...HENLOPEN ACRES AND LEWES AROUND 410 AM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHOWER.

IOVINO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
454 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-031100-
BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CARBON PA-CHESTER PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-
MONTGOMERY PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
454 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT
CHESTER...MONTGOMERY...BERKS...LEHIGH...NORTHAMPTON...CARBON...BUCKS
AND MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 452 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 29 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WILKES-BARRE TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF READING TO 14
MILES NORTHEAST OF LANCASTER TO 21 MILES SOUTH OF LANCASTER...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH. THE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR HOMEVILLE...COCHRANVILLE...
WYOMISSING...WEST READING AROUND 500 AM...NEW MORGAN...
COCHRANVILLE...ST. LAWRENCE...REIFFTON AROUND 505 AM...WANAMAKERS AND
GLENMOORE AROUND 510 AM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH.

FORECASTER: GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
504 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

NJZ001-007>009-031100-
HUNTERDON NJ-MORRIS NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-
504 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...A SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT SUSSEX...WARREN...MORRIS AND HUNTERDON
COUNTIES...

AT 500 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTAGUE TO 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF EASTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS LINE
WILL BE NEAR PLEASANT VALLEY AROUND 505 AM...CRANDON
LAKES...HAINESVILLE...FIVE POINTS...WASHINGTON AROUND 515
AM...HAMPTON...HAMPTON...HAMPTON AROUND 525 AM...HIGH BRIDGE AND
GREAT MEADOWS AROUND 530 AM.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THIS LINE QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

FORECASTER: GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
526 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

DEZ001-NJZ007-009-015>019-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-031115-
BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CARBON PA-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-
GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MONROE PA-
MONTGOMERY PA-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-WARREN NJ-
526 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

...A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...

AT 522 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEHIGHTON TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ALLENTOWN TO 11 MILES NORTH OF WEST CHESTER TO 4 MILES NORTH OF
NEWARK...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 505 AM...A 49 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT THE READING AIRPORT
IN BERKS COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA AS THIS LINE MOVED THROUGH.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THIS LINE QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

FORECASTER: GORSE