Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WWUS51 KPHI 291746
SVSPHI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
146 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

NJC019-021-291756-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-090729T1800Z/
HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-
146 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MERCER AND
HUNTERDON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4044 7474 4046 7474 4045 7475 4048 7476
      4049 7475 4051 7474 4057 7471 4067 7468
      4061 7452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 214DEG 27KT 4066 7471

$$

NJC035-291800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-090729T1800Z/
SOMERSET NJ-
146 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY...

AT 144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BRIDGEWATER...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOMERVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 7474 4046 7474 4045 7475 4048 7476
      4049 7475 4051 7474 4057 7471 4067 7468
      4061 7452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 214DEG 27KT 4066 7471

$$

EBERWINE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1015 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING TO THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
YOU KNOW ITS NOT GOING TO BE A VERY GOOD DAY WHEN YOU ALREADY HEAR
STATIC ON THE AM RADIO ON YOUR DRIVE IN TO WORK AND THE WINDOWS OF
THE LOCAL COFFEE SHOP ARE ALL COVERED IN FOG AND DEW. THE LATEST
MSAS ANALYSIS ALREADY HAS A -6C BULLSEYE OVER PHL AND ILG ALREADY
AND WE ARE CLOUDY AND THERE ARE STILL MANY CLOUDS UPSTREAM.

LOOKING AT THE 12Z SOUNDING INFORMATION, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
EASTERN SHORT WAVE AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS IS EITHER NOT THERE OR
WEAKER THAN IT IS FORECASTING. AC HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE DC AREA
AND THIS MAY BE A REFLECTION OF IT. THE MORE EMPHATIC AND OBVIOUS
SHORT WAVES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS HAVE A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 88F. BASED ON THE LATTER SHORT
WAVES BEING MORE OF THE BIG DOG AND THE HIGHER CONVECTIVE TEMP WE
SLID THE ONSET OF HIGHER PCPN CHANCES BACK ABOUT 2-3HRS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD GIVE US MORE TIME TO COOK THE AIR MASS.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
THINKING. THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVES GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLOUD
US OVER. THERE ARE STILL AC CLOUDS TO OUR CW. BUT THE DAY IS LONG
AND THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY. THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS OF THE
SUMMER WILL MAKE THE LCL RELATIVELY LOW AND COUPLED WITH DECENT
SHEAR (AROUND 30 KNOTS, PLUS FORECAST SHARP INDEX EXCEEDING 300)
WOULD INCLUDE A TORNADO THREAT IN THE MIX ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S IN LOWER DELMARVA AND WE HAVE
BOOSTED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 1-2F (MORE IN DELMARVA) ACROSS OUR CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING LATE AT NIGHT AS ANY SHORT WAVES
ALOFT LIFT TO THE NE. ON THURSDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY DONT LOOK LIKE THE
WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY. SINCE WE DONT GET THE FRONT FROM
THE WEST MAKING IT INTO THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY WARM
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL ENTRENCHED OVER
THE REGION WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH COMPLACENTLY SITTING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS RECENT PAST FORECASTS HAVE
POINTED OUT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA CHANCE
POPS WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. THERE WAS NOT A DRASTIC
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
IN DAYTIME HIGHS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATER TODAY A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTN, BUT THEN CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL
DETERIORATE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
CONVECTION. THERE MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WITH THAT CONVECTION,
BUT WE HAVE NOT PUT THAT IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE AIR SHOULD REMAIN
HUMID AND EITHER MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY,
BUT THE STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF CONVECTION AROUND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. GUIDANCE FORECASTS FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE
MARGINAL IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS, WHILE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MOVES THE
SEAS FIRMLY INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY BY TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
HAVE CONDITIONS BACKING DOWN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY, AND WE WILL TRIM OFF A FEW HOURS FROM THE ADVISORY AND
END IT ON THE OCEAN AT NOON. OVER THE LOWER BAY, THE BEST CHANCE OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY /INDICATIONS
FROM BRANDYWINE NOTWITHSTANDING/, AND WE WILL WORD IT THAT WAY IN
THE TEXT PRODUCT. IT REMAINS UP THERE FOR TONIGHT ONLY.

A CAVEAT IS THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT, AND THEY WOULD CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER DISCUSSING IT WITH OUR SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST PLUS LOOKING
AT THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING INFORMATION THAT RAISE PCPN WATER
VALUES TO OVER 2 INCHES AND VIEWING PCT OF NORMAL PCPN WATER VALUES
ON SATL IMAGERY THAT ARE NEARING 200 PCT OF NORMAL, WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SOUTHEASTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NJ.
THE LATEST MORNING HYDRO REPORTS SHOWED ADDITIONAL REGIONS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN AND 1 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY LESS
THAN 1.5 INCHES ACROSS BASINS IN SOUTHERN BERKS, NORTHERN CHESTER, A
BIG CHUNK OF SOMERSET, EASTERN MORRIS AND NORTHWEST SUSSEX NJ
COUNTIES . THESE SHOULD BE VIEWED AS THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS
LEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTS EVENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-067>071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
HYDROLOGY...GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-300930-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
331 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-300930-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
331 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ450>455-300930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
331 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-300930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
331 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ431-300930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
331 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.