Gale Watch 7, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

693 
WHUS71 KPHI 191945
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

.DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR MARINE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THIS STORM...AND INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

ANZ450-451-200900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0042.090420T0200Z-090420T1500Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0007.090420T1600Z-090421T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0012.090420T1500Z-090421T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
345 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EDT MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EDT MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE FROM LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD THE SEAS LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-200900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0042.090420T0900Z-090421T0200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
345 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EDT
MONDAY. 

AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS
SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ452>455-200900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0042.090420T0200Z-090421T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
345 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY, AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FROM LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THE STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD THE SEAS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ431-200900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0042.090420T0900Z-090421T0200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
345 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EDT
MONDAY. 

AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY, AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS MOSTLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND REACH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER US THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING A
RETURN TO FAIR AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WRF-NMM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS AT H5 WHILE THE GFS
LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER AT H8 AND H925. THE GFS AND WRF AT
INITIALIZATION HAVE DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES WRT H5 TEMPS AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE GFS HAVING THE COLD POCKET FARTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS IS OCCURRING BTWN SOUNDING SITES. THE FORMER PROBABLY EXPLAINS
WHY THE GFS IS LAGGING WITH H5 AND SFC FEATURES THROUGH 48 HOURS.
FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE WRF-NMM EVOLUTION IN
THE SHORT TERM BUT TEMPERING IT WITH A GFS AND WRF COMPROMISE WITH
SOME OF THE SFC FEATURES. WE WILL SLOW THE EVENT DOWN BY ABOUT 3-6
HRS OVERALL.

THE SLOWING OF THE BACKDOOR THE FIRST SIGN THAT THE FASTER SOLUTION
IS NOT GOING TO WORK. IT ALSO WILL NECESSITATE AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
IN MAX TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, NO PUN INTENDED.
IF THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO LAGS, WE MIGHT NOT HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES ENOUGH. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE HAVE
SLOWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS IS INFERRING THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE PRECIPITATION OVER INDIANA TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE H2.5 JET.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
AS FAR AS CLOUDS GO, THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
SC...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD BE OF THE MID AND
HIGH VARIETY. OVERALL A BETTER DAY FOR TODAY THAN WE ENVISIONED
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY HAS ITS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN
WRITTEN ALL OVER IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF WAA INDUCED PRECIPITATION
STRUGGLING AGAINST FRESH DRY AIR, THEN FOLLOWED BY A NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE SYSTEM WITH A TRIPLE POINT SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR CWA. IF MEMORY SERVES CORRECT THIS IS
THE FOURTH EVENT SINCE LATE MARCH WITH A SIMILAR OUTCOME.

WHILE WE DID SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN FOR TONIGHT...WE DID NOT
BACK IT OFF AS MUCH AS THE WRF-NMM DID. ALTHOUGH THE WRF DOES NOT
GENERATE MUCH PRECIPITATION, BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON FCSTG OMEGA
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE
EAST OF OUR CWA BY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD MAKE IT EASIER FOR
PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE. WE WILL MAINTAIN OUR N TO S POP GRADIENT
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS S. WE KEPT THE PTYPE ALL RAIN. THE GFS TREND
CONTINUES SLIGHTLY WARMER, THIS TIME THE GREATER LEAP IN WARMTH WAS
FOUND IN THE FCST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VS THE 850MB TEMPS. THE
LATTER WARMED IN THE NORTHERN CWA ABT 1C FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN. WITH
FRESH DRY AIR ARRIVING, IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING FOR SOME SLEET TO
OCCUR FAR N, BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

THE SERIOUS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT SLUG OF PCPN IS STILL SLATED FOR
MONDAY. YESTERDAY WE WERE THINKING A 9Z MON-00Z TUE TIME PERIOD.
THIS CONSENSUS IS CLOSER TO 12Z MON-04Z TUE. MANY METEOROLOGICAL
PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CONVERGENCE OF SUPPORT FOR STEADY AND
SOMETIMES HVY PCPN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE USED THE TAIL END OF
THE FCST THETA E AND WAA TO START LOWERING POPS MONDAY NIGHT. IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE TRIPLE POINT LOW SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR CWA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOSER TIMING TO THE WRF. THE STEADY PCPN SHOT
SHOULD AT LEAST PUT AN IN SITU COOL AIR DAMMING AIR MASS IN PLACE
WHICH IS NOT A BAD IDEA ON SEVERAL FRONTS.

FIRST THE LLJ FROM THE EAST WILL BE INTENSIFYING DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. WE MIGHT NEED A WIND ADVY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS THE GRADIENT
PEAKS DURING MONDAY AFTN AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDS STILL INFER 40
KTS POSSIBLE IN SPITE OF THE INVERSION. SECOND THE JET STRUCTURE
ALOFT FCST HAS IMPROVED FROM YESTERDAY. A JET STREAK IS NOW FCST TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES
FOR HVYR PCPN TO OCCUR. ACCORDINGLY MOST MODEL QPFS HAVE INCREASED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH AN AROUND 1.5 INCH CONSENSUS AVERAGE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR SOME MORE DETAILS. THIRD,
THE GFS CONTINUES TO FCST STRONG INSTABILITY ABOVE THE DECK WITH
TOTAL TOTALS WELL INTO THE 50S. THE WRF-NMM IS TRENDING ITS WAY. IT
WOULD SEEM DIFFICULT EVEN WITH THE TRIPLE POINT LOW PASSING ACROSS
OUR CWA TO GET THE JUICIEST AIR INTO OUR CWA. ITS TOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO PEG WHETHER OR NOT THE CONVECTION TO OUR S WOULD BECOME
ROBUST ENOUGH TO RE-POSITION THE TRIPLE POINT LOW FTHR TO THE SE AS
OCCURRED ON APRIL 6TH, OR IF IT WILL BE SCATTERED ENOUGH THAT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA COULD SUPPORT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. RIGHT
NOW SPC IS CONTINUING THE SLGT CHC FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN WHERE THE FCST INSTABILITY IS ALOFT
AND WBZ FCST TO BE AROUND 8K WE SUSPECT THE GREATEST SVR WX THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL AGAIN. SINCE THIS IS STILL A THIRD INTO FOURTH PERIOD
OCCURRENCE, WE DID NOT WANT TO ADD HAIL TO THE GRIDS AND ZONES JUST
YET, BUT WILL MAKE MENTION OF IT IN THE HWO.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION INTO THE
NIGHT...THE FCST THETA E RIDGE AND GENERAL Q-VECTOR AND
FRONTOGENETIC COUPLET WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA AND SUSPECT WHAT PCPN
THERE IS LATER MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAPTURE THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY. IT WILL BE GETTING COLDER
ALOFT AND CHANNELIZED VORT MAXES ARE FORECAST TO START MOVING INTO
OUR CWA AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EDGES EASTWARD. SHOWERY WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NW. THE WET BULB ZERO IS FCST
TO LOWER TO 4-5K, SOME GRAUPEL DURING THE SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. IT
WONT BE QUITE AS CHILLY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WITH US TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS THE
HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE BACK. THERE ARE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WRT TO THE NEXT
CFP. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS ALONG THE FASTER ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS.
UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS, WE DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE REGION GEARS UP FOR A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY, ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A
NORTHEAST AND EAST DIRECTION. THUS FAR EARLY THIS MORNING, THE WINDS
HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
PREVAILING AT SOME TERMINALS. ALL OUR TERMINALS WILL HAVE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, HOWEVER
THESE ARE ANTICIPATED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR TERMINALS TODAY.
BESIDES THE SHIFT IN THE WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SPEEDS, OUR WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. THERE
WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS TODAY WITH A
MID LEVEL DECK GRADUALLY ARRIVING. THIS IS ALL COMPLIMENTS OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE AND MORE ESTABLISHED, THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO THICKEN UP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT
CEILINGS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER FOR THE 30-HOUR TAF
AT KPHL, WE INDICATED SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARRIVING TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
THE 12Z TAF RELEASE WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE SOME RAIN AND LOWER
CEILINGS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL TEND TO HOLD THE SURFACE
WINDS UP. FOR NOW, WE DID NOT INCLUDE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...
AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION ON MONDAY, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE AREA. THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR /POSSIBLY TO LIFR/ WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OCCURRING
DUE TO THE RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME FOG. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY MONDAY WITH NEARLY 60 KNOTS AROUND 3,000
TO 5,000 FEET. AS A RESULT, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A
CONCERN ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE PREDOMINATELY SPEED SHEAR AS THE WIND
DIRECTION FROM 2,000 FEET AND LOWER IS MAINLY FROM THE EAST. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN ON MONDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CEILINGS AND EVEN
VISIBILITIES LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLIDES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH OUR REGION. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ENERGY MAY
ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE. EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE INCOMING
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND THE CHANCE OF SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY DURING WEDNESDAY, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH MUCH IMPROVED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST
DIRECTION. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TO ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT, THEREFORE JUST THE WIND SHIFT IS THE MAIN FEATURE WITH
IT. WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL
TO OUR SOUTH BUT THEN TRY AND LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION LATE MONDAY ON THE OCCLUDED FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS,
THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY AND VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. BACKING UP A BIT, THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT IDEAL
FOR VERTICAL MIXING, HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD
NEARLY TO THE SURFACE, ADVISORY WINDS WILL DEVELOP STARTING LATER
TONIGHT. THIS STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS
STARTING TONIGHT.

AS A RESULT AND AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFOS AKQ AND OKX, WE WILL
HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT 04Z MONDAY ON THE OCEAN
/ENDING AT 16Z MONDAY FROM LITTLE EGG INLET NORTHWARD/ AND THEN
DELAWARE BAY AT 09Z MONDAY. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME ON DELAWARE BAY
REGARDING WINDS TO RAMP UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY ON THE
UPPER PART, HOWEVER IT WAS DECIDED TO BEGIN THEM THE SAME TIME FOR
NOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SEAS IN THE LOWER BAY
ESPECIALLY, PARTICULARLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING
MONDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN MORE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN HIGHLIGHTING OUR
NORTHERN TWO ZONES WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. THIS IS WHERE SOME 50
KNOTS IS FORECAST AT AROUND 2,000 FEET. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT AS TIGHT THEREFORE THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
IS WEAKER. THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO A LESS PACKING OF THE ISOBARS
DUE TO A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT GALES WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE UP NORTH, WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FROM LITTLE EGG INLET
ON NORTHWARD STARTING AT 16Z MONDAY. WE WILL RUN THE WATCH AND THE
ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY FOR NOW /ADVISORY ON THE
BAY UNTIL 23Z MONDAY/.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, WAVEWATCH HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SEAS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS BEING FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN WATERS.
OUR PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD THIS IDEA INDICATED ALREADY, THEREFORE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE
WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER AIR
SYSTEM WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL TEND TO SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST. THESE MAY
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN DURING THURSDAY. AS A SIDE
NOTE, THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE WATER LEVELS
AT THE COAST AND BACKBAYS. WE WILL MONITOR IN CASE IT LOOKS LIKE
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS MORE OF A POSSIBILITY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE FIND SIMILAR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THAT WE HAD PRIOR TO THE APRIL
6TH EVENT. FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
(1.2 - 1.7 INCHES IN ABOUT THREE HOURS TO START FLOODING) IN THE
CORRIDOR FROM NEW CASTLE COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA,
MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES.
HEADWATER GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE ASSUNPINK CREEK, CHESTER
CREEK, EAST BRANCH OF THE BRANDYWINE CREEK, CHRISTINA RIVER AND
WHITE CLAY CREEK. MODEL EVENT TOTALS QPF HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER THERE COULD BE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AND AN INCREASED THREAT FOR STREAM FLOODING. LIKE THE APRIL
6TH THREAT, THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A SMALLER STREAM CONCERN AND
NOT AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR THE LARGER RIVERS. WE WILL MAKE MENTION
OF FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A WATCH ATTM. THIS WAS THE FIRST MODEL RUN THAT STACKED THE
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR HEAVY RAIN VERY WELL AND WANT TO SEE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GIGI/DELISI/RPW
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE
HYDROLOGY...GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-201000-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY MONDAY DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN MIGHT
FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AND CAUSE SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ007>010-012-015>019-021-PAZ060>062-067>071-201000-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-
SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY MONDAY DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN MIGHT
FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AND CAUSE SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
PROBLEMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SOUTHEASTWARD. IF CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS CONTINUE, IT MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR PART OF THE REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION PRODUCT FOR DETAILS ABOUT
THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER UPDATES LATER
TODAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ013-014-020-022>027-201000-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SOAKING RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN MIGHT FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AND CAUSE SOME URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE, IT MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY
TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION PRODUCT FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS
FOR FLOODING. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER UPDATES LATER TODAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-201000-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL. ALSO A SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY MONDAY
DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN MIGHT FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AND CAUSE
SOME FIELD AND POOR DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER
UPDATES LATER TODAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ452>455-201000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-201000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-201000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.