River Flood Warning 101, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 131520
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...AND
MISSISSIPPI...
 
  FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL AFFECTING BALDWIN COUNTY. 
  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AND LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND
  WASHINGTON COUNTIES. 
  LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES. 
  CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. 
  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA 
  PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK AFFECTING BALDWIN COUNTY.
  STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING BALDWIN COUNTY.
  CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA COUNTIES.
  PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND JACKSON COUNTIES.
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
  PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 
  STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 
  ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG MANY AREA RIVERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC003-140730-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0099.091213T1725Z-091214T0730Z/
/FSHA1.1.ER.091213T1725Z.091213T1800Z.091214T0130Z.UU/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL
* FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 11.2 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS EVENING.
* AT 11 FEET, FLOOD STAGE...COUNTY ROAD 48 FLOODS AT BRIDGE  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC033-091-141520-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0100.091214T0218Z-091216T0830Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.091214T0218Z.091215T0000Z.091216T0230Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.6 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 24.1 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TUESDAY EVENING.


$$

ALC003-FLC033-141520-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0101.091214T0600Z-091215T0300Z/
/BRPF1.1.ER.091214T0600Z.091214T1200Z.091214T2100Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK
* FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 13.3 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


$$

ALC003-FLC033-141520-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0102.091213T1729Z-091214T1948Z/
/STXA1.1.ER.091213T1729Z.091214T0600Z.091214T1348Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR
* FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 13.4 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING.


$$

ALC023-025-129-141520-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-091217T2024Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.091212T0925Z.091214T1800Z.091217T1424Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 32 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 29 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 34.1 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC023-025-129-141520-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-091218T0200Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.091212T2245Z.091214T1800Z.091217T2000Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING 
* AT 7AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.4 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 24 FEET, FLOODING OF LOW LYING FARM AND PASTURELANDS IN THE AREA WILL 
OCCUR.  CATTLE IN LOW LYING AREAS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC033-091-141520-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0103.091214T1630Z-091217T1200Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.091214T1630Z.091215T1800Z.091217T0600Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON
* FROM TOMORROW LATE MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 28.1 FEET BY TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


$$

ALC053-FLC033-141520-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0097.091213T2300Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.091213T2300Z.091216T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY
* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE
  TO NEAR 19.6 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

MSC039-041-111-141520-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0095.091213T1611Z-091218T0234Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.091213T1611Z.091214T1200Z.091217T2034Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.8 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 22 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 18 FEET, CONSIDERABLE LOWLAND AND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR.  

$$

MSC039-041-153-141520-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-091217T1851Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.091213T1016Z.091214T1800Z.091217T1251Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.2 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 22 FEET, FLOODING OF LOWLANDS IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE AND SOME ROADS IN 
LOW LYING AREAS WILL BECOME CUT OFF BY HIGH WATER.  

$$

MSC039-041-059-141520-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0104.091214T2230Z-091217T0359Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.091214T2230Z.091216T0000Z.091216T2159Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 22.5 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


$$

FLC091-131550-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0098.000000T0000Z-091217T0600Z/
/CRVF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
* AT 8AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.6 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* AT 8 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR.  

$$

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 140107
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
707 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
FLORIDA...
 
  FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL AFFECTING BALDWIN COUNTY.

  PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES.

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC003-140137-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0099.000000T0000Z-091214T0730Z/
/FSHA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
707 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT 
* AT 6 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
AT 11 FEET, FLOOD STAGE...COUNTY ROAD 48 FLOODS AT BRIDGE  

$$

ALC003-FLC033-140137-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-091215T0300Z/
/BRPF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
707 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING 
* AT 6 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FEET


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF
42012...WESTWARD TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO WHERE A DIFFUSE
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED.  THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA AND IS ABSORBED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST.  THE WARM FRONT MEANWHILE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AND IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS.  UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW
PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE DIFFUSE SURFACE
LOW/APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TENDS TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERNMOST MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA
EXCEPT FOR CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION.  RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
TAPERING OFF IN THE WEAKENING OVERRUNNING PATTERN BUT WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 9 AM FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PART OF THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS UNTIL RAINFALL
RATES WILL HAVE DECREASED SUFFICIENTLY.  HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA EARLIER...GENERALLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND PART OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO
AREAL FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 6 HOURS WHICH WOULD NOT BE APPROPRIATE
FOR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...AND THIS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AS BY THEN SWOLLEN STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL HAVE RECEDED
WITH THE DECREASING RAINFALL RATES.  SURFACE BASED CAPES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS WARM MOIST AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT BUT SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY LOW...80 TO 100
M2/S2.  DESPITE THIS MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...DEEP
LAYER LIFT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE AREA SO WILL JUST
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MATCHING THE AFOREMENTIONED
POPS.  WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MILDER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW TODAY FOR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. /29

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIP IS A BIT SKETCHY AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. ALL AGREE THAT A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING A FRONT SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS/MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS ENERGY...WHEN COMBINED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IN THE GFS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...HAS RESULTED IN
MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY...ALMOST 50 PERCENT IN SOME CASES. HAVE
WENT IN THE MIDDLE AS THE SLOSHING AROUND IN THE FIRST TWO PERIODS
WILL DICTATE THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO
HAVE LIMITED ANY RUMBLING TO THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE FA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. NAM IS STILL ADVERTISING LOWER POPS THAN THE
GFS...CONCENTRATING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND
ITS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR RUMBLES...BUT
WITH THE DECREASE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HAVE BACKED OFF IN THE
THUNDER COVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE
FA TO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
NAM STILL UNDER THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...JUST NOT
SURFACE BASED...SO AM LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ON THE
WEAK SIDE...THOUGH BOTH MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A SMALL LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT.
SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO IF ANY CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS TO BE ANTICIPATED...IT MOST LIKELY WILL BE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
UPPER DYNAMICS PUSHING TUESDAYS FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...PUSHING THE
FRONT WITH...IT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF(ECMWF) OR NORTHERN LATIN
AMERICA(GFS). THE MORE NORTHWARD POSITION OF THE ECMWF...WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...RESULTS IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE EVEN DRIER THAN THE
GFS...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE MODEL IN THE MIDDLE(GFS FOR NOW).
THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL FOR MID WEEK...SETTLING INTO TEMPS A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL...BOTH DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT FOG
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING OFF
DURING THE DAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY TODAY AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
EASTERLY WINDS AT 15-25 KNOTS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE IN THE
WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.  PLAN TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM AS WINDS SHOULD HAVE DROPPED
BELOW 20 KNOTS BY THEN WITH SEAS 6 FEET OR LESS.  LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
FOLLOWS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND DECREASES SOMEWHAT AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO TODAY...THEN
TAPER OFF FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP STARTS
LATER MONDAY...LASTING INTO TUESDAY...ENDING SHORTLY AFTER A FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN A DRIER...COOLER
AIRMASS TO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  63  71  62  70 /  60  20  50  70  70
PENSACOLA   73  63  72  62  72 /  60  20  50  70  70
DESTIN      73  65  70  61  71 /  60  20  40  70  60
EVERGREEN   70  56  72  60  71 /  70  20  50  70  70
WAYNESBORO  68  54  70  57  65 /  60  20  50  70  70
CAMDEN      69  55  71  58  68 /  70  20  50  70  70
CRESTVIEW   73  58  73  60  72 /  70  20  50  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER
     BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND
     INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

29/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-141200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
700 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TO AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED NUISANCE PONDING ON ROADS
AND LOW LYING AREAS.

SEVERAL RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA ARE
CURRENT IN FLOOD STAGE...WITH SEVERAL MORE ABOVE ACTION STAGE...AN
INDICATION OF NUISANCE FLOODING.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS THE RAIN ENDS...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR DRIVERS AND BOATERS OUT AND ABOUT THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND
BECOME NUMEROUS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE MARINE AREA CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING THREE TO FOUR INCHES OR MORE OF
RAIN...SEVERAL RIVERS OVER THE AREA WILL RISE ABOVE ACTION
STAGE...CAUSING NUISANCE FLOODING ALONG THESE RIVERS. SOME RIVERS
WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...CREATING MORE PROBLEMATIC FLOODING
CONDITIONS ALONG THESE RIVERS. SOME RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE
ALREADY IN FLOOD AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.