Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.SHORT TERM TONIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE. THE DEEP MOIST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES MOVE OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM 86 TO 90 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 72 INLAND AREAS
AND FROM 72 TO 76 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE TRANSITION
PERIOD...AND END UP OVER CENTRAL MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE REPLACED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
STILL EXPECT AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE EACH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS GRIDDED
FORECASTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT NORTH AS
A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL
TUESDAY. WIND WILL BACK TO EAST AND NORTHEAST AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. WAVE HEIGHTS MOSTLY 1 TO 2 FEET
UNTIL MID WEEK THEN GOING FOR 3 R 4 FEET WITH THAT EASTERLY WAVE
STEEPENING THE P-GRADIENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA. /77

&&

.AVIATION 18Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIFR MORE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES ALTHOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY SURROUND THE LIGHTER PRECIP AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF
IFR OR MVFR IN MIST MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AROUND DEPRESSIONS AND
NEAR RIVER BOTTOMS. /77

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING HAZARDS WILL IMPACT
AGENCIES DOING ANY OUTDOOR WORK...FIRE PLANNING INITIATIVES. LOWEST
HUMIDITY REMAINS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH DAYTIME DISPERSION
BEING FAIR TO AVERAGE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SOME AREAS AS
DISPERSION BECOMES POOR. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  87  72  88 /  30  60  30  60
PENSACOLA   74  88  74  88 /  20  50  20  40
DESTIN      77  86  77  87 /  20  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   69  87  69  88 /  30  60  30  60
WAYNESBORO  71  87  70  88 /  40  60  40  60
CAMDEN      70  87  69  88 /  40  70  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-211200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHERLY OVER THE
AREA AGAIN TODAY.  A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SUFFICIENT FOR A QUICK INCH OR MORE OR RAIN THAT
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN LOW PLACES AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINLY EARLY MORNINGS TO EARLY EVENINGS. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE RISK FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...BOTH IN
RURAL SETTINGS AND URBAN AREAS.  .

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER NETWORKS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1232 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

ALZ053-055-201815-
MONROE-CLARKE-
1232 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN MONROE AND EXTREME
EASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES...

AT 1230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF MANISTEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
PERDUE HILL...CLAIBORNE...FINCHBURG...FOUNTAIN...KEITH AND FRANKLIN
THROUGH 115 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A
SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
155 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

ALZ062-FLZ001-003-201945-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-UPPER BALDWIN-
155 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BALDWIN...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA
ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS FOUND A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF BAY SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
WALNUT HILL...OAK GROVE AND BRATT THROUGH 245 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.