Tornado Warning 27, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 181001
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
501 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

FLC009-061-181011-
/O.CAN.KMLB.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-091218T1015Z/
INDIAN RIVER-BREVARD-
501 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD AND NORTHEASTERN
INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND EXITED
THE WARNING AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2769 8048 2802 8059 2802 8056 2794 8052
      2795 8051 2802 8054 2802 8052 2801 8051
      2783 8042 2784 8042 2780 8041 2771 8036
      2769 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 1001Z 180DEG 14KT 2789 8039

$$



BRAGAW

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
933 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO..
...RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...
...SOME SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ON FRIDAY...

CURRENT...HEAVY RAINS IN VICINITY OF LIFTING WARM FRONT HAVE BEEN
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN SAINT LUCIE COUNTY SINCE THE AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN STILL FALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT/FRI...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT STEADILY FROM NEAR LAKE
OKEE NWD THROUGH ECFL. RAINS ASCD WITH LIFTING BOUNDARY WL
OVERSPREAD AREA WITH SOME RAIN LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS. WARM SECTOR...FORCED ASCENT AND INCREASING LL
WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 0-1KM
SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILE EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2 SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD
ROTATING STORMS. MARGINAL MORNING INSTABILITY SHOULD BE OFFSET BY
IMPRESSIVE FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ALONG WITH H85 WINDS 50 TO 55 KT.

WILL ISSUE A WEATHER STATEMENT BY 10 PM WITH UPDATES TO THE THREATS
OVER THE AREA.

PREV DISC...
SFC LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE FL BIG
BEND...DRAGGING PRE-FRONTAL SQLN EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY. SIGNIFICANT H25 DIVG/JET FORCED ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION OF SFC LOW/SQLN AS IT RACES EWD. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE
SHOW LARGE SWATH OF 40KT+ WINDS @H925 AND 45 TO AS HIGH AS 60KT AT
H85. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM (ESPECIALLY THE LATTER) SHOW A LARGE AREA
OF 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES >300 M2/S2 COVERING VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE
CWA STARTING IN THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING THRU 21Z-00Z.
EXPECT SVR MODE TO FEATURE A VERY FAST MOVING SQLN WITH EMBEDDED
BOWS/LEWP AND PSBL SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...BUT GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HRS...ANTICIPATE SQLN TO REACH
LAKE COUNTY BY MID-LATE MORNING...THE GREATER ORLANDO AND DAB AREAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
/LAKE OKEE AREA FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SQLN COULD BE PRECEDED BY
DISCRETE CELLS/SMALL BANDS WHICH WOULD NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY AS
WELL. POPS ARE 70-80 TNGT...100 AREAWIDE ON FRI.

ANOTHER THING WORTH MENTIONING IS THAT THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY WARRANT LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR TMRW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR MAINLY BKN020-030 WITH SCT IFR VSBYS
IN PRECIP. COULD SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS ASCD WITH SQLN TMRW LATE
MORNING-AFTN...HOWEVER TIMING/AREAL EXTENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO
INSERT CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS INTO ANY OF THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SOLID SCA CONDS IN PLACE...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY IF SFC LOW
DEEPENS AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z GFS...HOWEVER FOR THE TIME
BEING HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30KT. PLAN TO MENTION GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...AS WELL AS LCLLY HIGHER WINDS
SEAS IN STORMS AS SQLN PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA
FRI AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS      FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20
NM-     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT
20      NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

JP/TS/DVD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1100 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-172100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1100 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RISK FOR ROTATING STORMS TO PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LATE THIS MORNING...DOPPLER RADARS WERE SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS OVER AND OFFSHORE COMMUNITIES
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER
MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STRONGER
CELLS WERE EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL WEAK ROTATION. WITH THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY EVENING...THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE TREASURE
COAST COUNTIES...AS WELL AS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

THE THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEGINS TO PUSH TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY. LOCAL
PONDING OF WATER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS MARTIN...
OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
...BEFORE SHIFTING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING WHERE RAIN PERSISTS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STORMS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH
...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 25 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WILL BECOME EAST THEN SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FEET NEAR SHORE...UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY...

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CROSS
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILE
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES DURING THE DAY.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THURSDAY MORNING IS INDICATING THAT THE
LOW IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.

WHILE THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL REACH LAKE COUNTY
SOMETIME AROUND MID MORNING...THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
ORANGE...OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SQUALL LINE WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
...BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR POTENTIAL WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS...AS WELL
AS YOUR LOCAL FORECAST.

IF YOU OWN A WEATHER RADIO...NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE SURE THAT IT
IS IN GOOD WORKING ORDER...CORRECTLY PROGRAMMED...AND HAS A FRESH
BATTERY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED LATE TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION APPEARS LIKELY BY SOMETIME
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

GLITTO/CRISTALDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1042 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 W PORT SAINT LUCIE    27.27N 80.43W
12/17/2009  M6.86 INCH       ST. LUCIE          FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTED 6.86 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 910 PM IN THE
            COMMUNITY OF TRADITION

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW FORT PIERCE        27.50N 80.37W
12/18/2009  M41 MPH          ST. LUCIE          FL   ASOS

            KFPR AIRPORT MEASURED 150/36 KNOTS AT 259 AM.

&&

DVD