Red Flag Warning 49, NWS Miami, FL

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 101853
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
253 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

FLZ063-066-067-070-071-111000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FW.A.0039.090511T1600Z-090512T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.FW.W.0049.000000T0000Z-090511T0000Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
253 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 4 OR 
MORE CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND PALM BEACH, AND INLAND 
BROWARD COUNTIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 4 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND 
COLLIER, INLAND PALM BEACH, AND INLAND BROWARD COUNTIES...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTERIOR...INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN RHS IN
THE 20S...AND BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 HOURS OR MORE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REPEAT ITSELF ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GLADES, HENDRY,
INLAND COLLIER, INLAND PALM BEACH, AND INLAND BROWARD COUNTIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 110025
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

FLZ063-066-067-070-071-110830-
/O.EXP.KMFL.FW.W.0049.000000T0000Z-090511T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KMFL.FW.A.0039.090511T1600Z-090512T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMFL.FW.W.0050.090511T1600Z-090512T0000Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
825 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009


...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS EXPIRED...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

ANOTHER HOT DAY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR AGAIN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S, RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT
AND POSSIBLY OCCUR FOR 4 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE HOURS. THE WARNING
WILL BE FOR GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND PALM BEACH
AND INLAND BROWARD COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
115 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST
COAST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN SE AND INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 12KT
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AT APF THE DAY WILL START E THEN
BECOME WESTERLY AT AROUND 11KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AROUND MID DAY
AND RETURN TO AN EAST DIRECTION AFTER SUNSET.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 2Z TO 3Z BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS AT KFLL.
THE WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

APF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
UNTIL ABOUT 02Z...BEFORE GOING NORTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR
REST OF THE NIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL THEN BE EASTERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AROUND 15Z AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

THE CEILING AND VIS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NO RAINFALL FORECASTED DURING THIS TIME.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009/

MARINE ZONES...PLAN NO CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CAN YOU SAY HIGH
PRESSURE? YES, DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS GRIP ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH A LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ONLY A FEW SHRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THAT WILL
SET UP ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT REMAINING AROUND ONE AND A QUARTER INCHES WITH
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE 10K FEET.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN IN SHOWING ITS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING WHEREAS THE GFS
CANNOT SEEM TO MAKE A DECISION AND KEEPS CHANGING ITS TUNE. THAT
BEING SAID, WILL NOT CHANGE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS CAN
COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT BEYOND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF
HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT OUR REGION DRY WHILE THE GFS SAYS IT WILL
RAIN, NO IT WILL NOT RAIN. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS BACKING OFF ON
WEAK FRONT APPROACHING AND NOW KEEPS PWAT ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE
CURRENTLY. SO WE SHALL SEE.

AVIATION...NO CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH STAGNANT
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
FEW/SCT CU AND SC EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SE FLOW 8-12 KNOTS VEERING TO SSE AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. AT APF... WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO OFFSHORE
SHORTLY AFTER DUSK...AND POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HIGH-END MVFR
VSBY IN FU TOWARD DAWN... BUT WILL AWAIT FUTURE ISSUANCES OF
FORECAST TO PLACE TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF.

70/DD

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED DRY SOIL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL
BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST INTERIOR AREAS OF THE REGION. AS OF THIS WRITING
(12Z), SOUTHERN GLADES COUNTY WAS IN THE MID 90S WITH RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S SO INDEED DRY. SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD ALLOW FOR THESE VALUES TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT STILL THEY ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO AROUND 35
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  73  86 / -  10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  76  85 / -  10 10 10
MIAMI            76  88  74  87 / -  10 10 10
NAPLES           71  88  70  86 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
535 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-101100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
535 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE SOME RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.