Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 111420
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
920 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

ILC005-051-135-111600-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-090711T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-
920 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN FAYETTE...
NORTHERN BOND AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM
CDT...

AT 915 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST 
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY 
RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE...HILLSBORO...NOKOMIS...VANDALIA...COFFEEN...MULBERRY
GROVE...RENO...SHOBONIER...TAYLOR SPRINGS...VAN BURENSBURG...WITT AND
WOBURN.

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED UP TO 6 INCHES DEEP OF WATER ON ROUTE 51 
JUST SOUTH OF VANDALIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN 
AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO 
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 8904 3883 8954 3935 8949 3935 8929
      3883 8899

$$

GKS

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 111602
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1102 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

ILC005-051-135-111616-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-090711T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-
1102 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN FAYETTE...
NORTHERN BOND AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3883 8904 3883 8954 3935 8949 3935 8929
      3883 8899

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
/532 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009/

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FCST IS ON HAND AS WE CONTINUE TO TRUDGE THRU THE
SUMMER MONTHS.  AT 8Z SFC COLD FRNTL BNDRY WAS POSITIONED ACRS SRN
WI AND SWWD ALONG THE MO-IA BORDER INTO ERN KS.  TSRA WAS ONGOING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRNTL BNDRY IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY EXISTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MID-MS VLY WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG WITHIN 0-3KM PER RUC
ANALYSIS.  THERE WAS ALSO A VERY PROMINENT H85 LLVL JET OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST VEERING TO THE EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT.

IN ALL HONESTY NO ONE PIECE FOR FCST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY
HELPFUL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT ONE THING IS FOR
CERTAIN...WITH A SUFFICIENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH
A SFC COLD FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SEWD THRU THE RGN THERE IS BOUND TO
BE TSRA THRU THE FA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...THE PROXIMITY OF WHICH IS
TERRIBLY DIFFICULT TO PLACE.  A FAIRLY TRICKY PART OF THE FCST HAS
BEEN DISCERNING WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND HOW ATTENDANT
CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS THRU THE AREA.  PER H5 MODEL ANALYSIS
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS MODELS THRU FCST
PD...WITH BEST AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF-NAM-CANADIAN. HAVE THUS
FOLLOWED A BLEND BETWEEN THE THREE FOR THE GOING FCST.

.DISCUSSION...

INTO TODAY H5 TROF WILL ROTATE THRU NRN GREAT LKS RGN WITH ACCOMPANYING
H3 JET STREAK ACRS THE NRN CONUS. SFC COLD FRNT WILL PROGRESS THRU
NRN MO WITH DESTABILIZATION OF A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG AND AHEAD.  SFC CONVERGENCE IN CONCERT WITH MODEST H85 LLVL
JET SHUD PROCURE DECENT TSRA CHCS...THIS COULD CHANGE OVER THE
COURSE OF TODAY.  HAVE RETAINED POPS INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.  CONCERN
LIES IN UNCERTAINTY OF UPR LVL DYNAMIC FORCING AND DIFFLUENCE WHICH
LOOKS WEAK OVER FA AND MORE PROMINENT ACRS OHIO RVR VLY.
NEVERTHELESS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE WITHIN 25-45KTS WITH
MODEST MUCAPE.

BOTH ECMWF-NAM SOLNS SUGGEST AN ONGOING MCS THRU MID-MS VLY MOVING
SEWD INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL THRU THE SATURDAY EVNG HRS. BEST UPR
LVL FORCING AND NOSE OF H85 LLVL JET KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
OVER SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO SUNDAY. BY SUCH TIME THE
SFC COLD FRONT STALLS ACRS SWRN PORTIONS OF MO AS THE H5 TROF
LIFTS INTO ERN CANADA. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL ON MODEL QPF OUTPUT
RESULTANT FROM H85 LLVL JET CONVERGENCE JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
STALLED SFC FRNTL BNDRY IN CONCERT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ALONG H5 NWLY FLOW. ATMOS MAY BE FAIRLY WELL CAPPED AND H85
CONVERGENCE FAIRLY WEEK. NEVERTHELESS HAVE TRENDED WITH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY POPS WITH GREATEST CHCS IN CENTRAL AND SWRN PORTIONS
OF THE FA.

NAM-ECMWF-CANADIAN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY H5 RIDGE BUILDS THRU THE MID-MS VLY RGN PROVIDING A SHORT
REPRIEVE OF TSRA.  SFC FRNTL BNDRY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND REFORMS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK OPEN WAVE TROF PROGRESSING THRU
THE NRN ROCKIES.  SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OVER THE GRT LKS RGN.  UNDER
COOLER AND DRIER ELY FLOW FEEL POP CHCS DIMINSH FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ONLY TO RE-EMERGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYNOPTIC LOW PRES BEGINNING TO LIFT THRU THE NRN PLAINS WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAPED THRU IA AND NWRN MO.  DURING THE OVRNGT
HRS PREVIOUS STALLED SFC FRNTL BNDRY SHUD LIFT THRU FA AS A WARM
FRONT BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.  EVEN THOUGH BETTER FORCING AND
DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOS LOOKS BETTER ACRS THE NRN CONUS THERE IS
THE CHC OF SOME PSBL TSRA ALONG SFC WRM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NEWD THRU
MO...AND THEN AGAIN AS THE TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD.
HAVE PUT CHC POPS OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF FA.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AXIS OF H85 WARM AIR WILL ADVECT AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT AVERAGING 20-22C AS WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE SW AHEAD
OF THE H5 WEAK OPEN WAVE TROF.  SHUD CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRNT TEMPS SHUD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.  THRU AFTERNOON
AND EVNG COLD FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH THRU THE FA PROVIDING BETTER
CHCS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE BI-STATE RGN.  INTO THURSDAY THE FRNTL
BNDRY STALLS THRU SRN MO AND NRN AR...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT AND PROXIMITY OF ANY
CONVECTIVE WEATHER. HAVE HELD WITH PREV FORECASTERS THINKING AND
HAVE A MENTION OF CHC POPS THRU SRN FA.

SIPPRELL

&&

.AVIATION...
/532 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CDFNT APRS TO BE FM NR MCI NE THRU IRK TO JUST
N OF UIN ATTM. NOT MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FNT...MOST OF THE
TSRA ARE IN SWRN MO NR THE NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF CONVECTION ACRS SWRN IL E OF THE STL METRO AREA. THE CDFNT WILL
DROP SWD THRU THE TAF SITES TDA...THEN BCM STNRY ACRS SRN MO TGT.
SLY SFC WNDS WILL SHIFT TO A N-NELY DIRECTION AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THIS CDFNT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN UIN THIS MRNG...IN COU BY LT MRNG OR
EARLY AFTN...AND IN STL/SUS THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE TSRA HAVE
MISSED THE TAF SITES SO FAR WILL LIKELY INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCTS
GROUP IN MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MRNG AS WELL AS IN COU...STL
AND SUS THIS AFTN. THE GFS MDL APRS TOO SLOW WITH THE SWD PROGRESS
OF THE PCPN LTR TDA AND TGT AND PREFER THE NAM MDL WHICH SHIFTS
THE QPF FURTHER SWD BY LTR TDA AND TGT. THE 4 KM WRF MDLS HAVE
MOST OF THE QPF THIS MRNG WITH MOST OF IT SHIFTING S OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTN. WILL PROBABLY LEAVE PCPN OUT OF THE TAFS FOR TGT
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE CONVECTION CLOSE TO COU...STL AND SUS JUST N
OF THE CDFNT. THERE SHOULD BE SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS LT THIS
MRNG AND AFTN ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID-HI LVL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS TDA. THE PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACRS THE AREA SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR 14Z SAT.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
407 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-120915-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
407 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE BI-STATE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER WILL FOCUS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
THE MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THOUGH THE AREA.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION FOR TODAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

SIPPRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

ILZ059-060-064-111045-
BOND IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
501 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MACOUPIN...NORTHERN BOND
AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 458 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF CARLINVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LITCHFIELD...
  HILLSBORO...
  NOKOMIS...
  RAYMOND...
  TAYLOR SPRINGS...
  COFFEEN...
  WITT...
  WOBURN...
  WAGGONER...
  HORNSBY...
  HONEY BEND...
  HARVEL...
  BUTLER...
  WALSHVILLE...
  IRVING...
  CHAPMAN...
  DONNELLSON...
  PANAMA...
  FILLMORE...
  COALTON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

GKS