Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 170656
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 AM AST TUE NOV 17 2009

PRC023-067-097-125-170702-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-091117T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
256 AM AST TUE NOV 17 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR MAYAGUEZ...CABO ROJO...SAN
GERMAN AND HORMIGUEROS MUNICIPALITIES...

FOR THE RIO GUANAJIBO NEAR HORMIGUEROS - HORP4
     FLOOD STAGE - 20 FEET.
     AT 251 AM AST THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER HAD           
     FALLEN TO...17 FEET.

     FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED ON THE GUANAJIBO RIVER AND RAIN  
     HAS ENDED IN THE AREA. NO FURTHER RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA  
     OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL NOT BE        
     RENEWED.

LAT...LON 1817 6719 1816 6699 1807 6700 1808 6719

$$

SNELL

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1051 PM AST MON NOV 16 2009

.UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...AT THIS  MOMENT THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS LINE IS AFFECTING
THE ENTIRE WESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THIS
LINE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE APPROACH OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO PUERTO RICO IS
BRINGING AREA-WIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY IFR VISIBILITIES AND SOME MVFR
CEILINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM AST MON NOV 16 2009/

SYNOPSIS...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DEEP TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NW OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN RESULTING
IN A SHARP DROP IN PWAT VALUES. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
WX TOMORROW EXPECT SHOWERS TO NOT BE AS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER AS
THEY WERE OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS.

BY WED...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SUBSIDENCE CAP
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE SHALLOW.
MODELS SHOW AMS DRYING OUT FURTHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
MID- UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH CIGS IMPROVING THIS EVENING.
VFR TOMORROW.

MARINE...5 FT SEAS OR LESS ACROSS UNPROTECTED WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES EARLIER AT VILLALBA
AND ST. THOMAS WITH OVER 2.0 INCH/HR. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN INTENSITY. WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENNIG OF UPPER TROUGH AND DECREASE IN CONVECTION ANTICIPATE
THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  84  75  86 /  40  80  50  50
STT  76  83  76  85 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
     CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

17/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
628 AM AST MON NOV 16 2009

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-171030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
628 AM AST MON NOV 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIDING A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND EVEN FLASH FLOODING
FROM RAPIDLY RISING RIVERS IN SOME AREAS OF PUERTO RICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS IN THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...REPORTS OF FLOODING...MUDSLIDES
AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ARE REQUESTED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-171030-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
628 AM AST MON NOV 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIDING A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN...URBAN AND GUT FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS IN THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...REPORTS OF FLOODING...MUDSLIDES
AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ARE REQUESTED.