High Wind Warning 2, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS73 KGRB 071159
NPWGRB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2009

...WINDS DIMINISHING OVER DOOR COUNTY...

.WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

WIZ022-071300-
/O.EXP.KGRB.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-091007T1200Z/
DOOR-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STURGEON BAY
659 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING. A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY LINGER TO 9 AM OVER NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1202 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2009

.UPDATE...ONE MORE UPDATE ON THE WAY. NEED TO UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR DOOR COUNTY AS WINDS AT NORTHPORT PIER HAVE BEEN
SUSTAINED GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS WITH AT LEAST ONE GUST OF 52
KNOTS.

MG
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF 29.35 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. INTERESTING EVENT AS STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS GREEN BAY AND THE FOX VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO DOOR COUNTY BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OUTSIDE OF DOOR COUNTY...WILL HAVE WINDY
WORDING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. OVER DOOR COUNTY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING. WILL LEAVE IT AS A STRONG WIND ADVISORY AND MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BREAK. LOCATIONS LIKE
SISTER BAY AND GILLS ROCK MAY REACH THE SUSTAINED CRITERIA FOR A HIGH
WIND WARNING. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED AS WELL ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WINDS. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING.

WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH FOCUS OF EARLY PART OF
THE EXTENDED ON FIRST COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY THU. MODELS TENDING A LITTLE QUICKER WITH
SYSTEM...WITH ALL OF THEM TRENDING TO BRING WAVE NORTHEAST ALONG
FRONT AS ENERGY MOVES OUT OF SOUTHWEST. MAJORITY OF MODELS MOVE
FRONT SOUTH OF CWA WITH WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA. GFS
ODD MODEL OUT BRINGING MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. AT
THIS POINT WILL IGNORE GFS GIVEN GOOD CONSISTENCY OF NAM AND
ECMWF. HAVE KEPT CHANCES CONTINUING ON THU AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT. NEGATIVE IS EXPECTED CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING
MOISTURE.

HAVE GONE WITH MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED...GIVEN STRENGTH OF LLVL
WINDS. QUESTION ON HIGHS THU AND FRI IS EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. WILL
BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MET GUIDANCE.

FOR DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST TO BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THIS PERIOD WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER LOWER 48...THOUGH
WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW AROUND LOW/TROF PARKED OVER HUDSON
BAY REGION. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
GO BACK AND FORTH ON TIMING OF SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
FLOW. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRY FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS DRY CANADIAN
AIR MASS OVER STATE. TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THOUGH SOME HINTS AT SOME RECOVERY TUE.

AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS EVENING. SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER DOOR COUNTY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVER NIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...EAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO THE WEST AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ON WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNING TO START AT 7 PM ALTHOUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND 10 PM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
511 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-071100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
511 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO GREEN BAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO LITTLE INSTABILITY.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY OVER DOOR COUNTY. THE WIND MAY BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE...AND MAKE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES DIFFICULT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED TONIGHT FOR
DOOR COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT PEAK WIND
GUSTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-071100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
511 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
DOOR PENINSULA. A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST GALES IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER
THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DOOR PENINSULA AND
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY.

TH