Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
FZUS71 KBUF 141354
MWSBUF

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
954 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

SLZ022-141430-
/O.CON.KBUF.MA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-090514T1430Z/
954 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM EDT FOR 
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO MORRISTOWN...

AT 952 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 
KNOTS FROM 6 NM EAST OF KINGSTON TO 3 NM NORTHWEST OF DEXTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 KNOTS.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
  CEDAR POINT BY 1000 AM EDT.
  CLAYTON BY 1005 AM EDT.
  ALEXANDRIA BAY BY 1015 AM EDT.
  CHIPPEWA BAY BY 1030 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND SMALL BOATS TAKE SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

BOATERS SHOULD GO TO A SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. IF POSSIBLE REMAIN
BELOW DECK TO AVOID THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES MAY QUICKLY CAPSIZE YOUR CRAFT. BOATS IN PORT SHOULD NOT
VENTURE OUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4458 7566 4452 7574 4445 7577 4435 7587
      4435 7590 4423 7607 4418 7624 4420 7627
      4424 7618 4428 7617 4431 7613 4431 7609
      4438 7590 4443 7583 4453 7576 4459 7569
TIME...MOT...LOC 1353Z 217DEG 44KT 4427 7636 4404 7609

$$

TMA

000 
FZUS71 KBUF 141427
MWSBUF

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

SLZ022-141437-
/O.EXP.KBUF.MA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-090514T1430Z/
1027 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 AM EDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT 
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND WERE MOVING AWAY FROM THE 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4458 7566 4452 7574 4445 7577 4435 7587
      4435 7590 4423 7607 4418 7624 4420 7627
      4424 7618 4428 7617 4431 7613 4431 7609
      4438 7590 4443 7583 4453 7576 4459 7569
TIME...MOT...LOC 1427Z 217DEG 44KT 4460 7601 4437 7574

$$

TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
408 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS FORECAST
TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY BY
DAYBREAK. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE MOST. HEAVIER SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OF A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WITHIN THE 0-3KM LAYER WILL DIMINISH FROM
AROUND 900 J/KG OVER MI/OH AT 09Z TO ONLY ABOUT 200-300 J/KG BY
12Z-18Z AS THE PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES OVER NY STATE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A WELL DEFINED BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP
WITH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT...AND CLEARING SKIES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DURING THE EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL GUST
TO 30 TO 35 MPH OR SO THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT.

THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AS A 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
CELLS MAY MIX DOWN SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOTHERMAL OR INVERSION TEMP PROFILE BELOW THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT.

EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SHOULD BE ABLE TO
CLIMB BACK TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...THEN
DROP BACK TO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTH TO THE LOWER LAKES SPREADS A
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF PLUS
6C TO PLUS 9C ACROSS THE CWA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
THE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS IT
LIFTS NE INTO QUEBEC.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...REACHING NEAR JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO GO THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE FAR WEST WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY.
PROJECTED SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS IN THE 1.50-1.80 INCH RANGE WITH
ZERO TO -1 LIFTED INDICES SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDER AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY FROM
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE WARMER
NAM AND COOLER GFS MOS GUID TEMPS BUT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK SATURDAY EVENING. WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR
FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS FROM THE
FINGER LKS AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE TAPERING OFF
TO JUST SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR
FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

SUNDAY BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DROP 850 TEMPERATURES TO
-4 TO -6 DEGREES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE
LIFTING TO OUR NORTH...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MID LEVEL HUMIDITY
REMAINING RESULTING IN SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

COOL AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR FROST AWAY FROM THE
LAKE SHORES AND EVEN SOME SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. COOL MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY ADVANCES...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...HAVE LEFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET SURGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING AS BAND OF STEADIER SHOWERS
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN THE CB QUALIFIER IN THE TAF GRIDS.

THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH 45-55KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOUT 2KFT
AGL...LOWER OVER THE HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE THREAT FOR
LLWS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MID MORNING VCNTY KART.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH SHRA/TSRA
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PRODUCE STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS ALL OF OUR MARINE AREAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE EXPANDED TO
COVER ALL OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND
BUFFALO HARBOR AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. MUCH BETTER BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP/THOMAS
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...JJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
524 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

NYZ001>008-010-011-150930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
524 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS...IT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED
BY SOME STRONG WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-150930-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
524 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE FRONT
WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS...IT
WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH TODAY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE FOUND NEAR
LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-150930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
524 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THIS FRONT
WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...IT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
STRONG WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
655 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

NYZ001-002-010-141145-
ERIE NY-NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-
655 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 649 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 8 MILES
  WEST OF NIAGARA FALLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LEWISTON AT 700 AM EDT...
  RANSOMVILLE AT 705 AM EDT...
  WILSON AT 715 AM EDT...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY

THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JJP