Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS51 KBUF 261742
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
142 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

NYC055-261815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-090626T1815Z/
MONROE NY-
142 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY...

AT 140 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CHURCHVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GATES...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SCOTTSVILLE BY 205 PM EDT...
  INDUSTRY BY 210 PM EDT...
  RUSH BY 215 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

LAT...LON 4299 7773 4299 7774 4309 7793 4313 7791
      4315 7795 4324 7757 4322 7741 4294 7754
      4294 7757 4295 7757 4294 7765
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 302DEG 14KT 4311 7781

$$

ZAFF

000 
WWUS51 KBUF 261813
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

NYC055-261824-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-090626T1815Z/
MONROE NY-
213 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 215 PM EDT...

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4299 7773 4299 7774 4309 7793 4313 7791
      4315 7795 4324 7757 4322 7741 4294 7754
      4294 7757 4295 7757 4294 7765
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 302DEG 14KT 4304 7767

$$

ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FINE SEASONAL
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MARCHING ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER ATTM. WHILE ANOTHER SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
I WOULD EXPECT ONCE THIS BATCH GOES THROUGH TO SEE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP FOR THE BUF/IAG METRO AREAS. TO THE EAST
AND HOWEVER MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY. WHILE THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD OR CONCENTRATED AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH / LIS OF
-4 TO -9 AND SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG / AND DEEP ENOUGH TO ONCE
AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
PULSE STORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

RATHER THAN GENERAL 40 POP ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHOW A TREND
TOWARD HIGHER POPS TO THE EAST WITH DECREASING POPS WEST.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SHOWER THREAT SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL EASE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
AGAIN INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RAINFREE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND H85 TEMPS OF +14C WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ON SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
STRONG DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CIRCULATE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE
TIMING AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE GFS FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWER AND
HOLDING SHOWERS OFF UNTIL SUN EVENING. DELAYED THE POPS UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND LOWERED POPS A TOUCH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR AREA ON BACKSIDE OF
SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...A TRAFFIC JAM OF
SORTS.

A DRY SLOT WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARDS ACROSS OUR REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BULK
OF ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 CLOSED
LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE FREQUENT RAINFREE PERIODS...SOME FOR AS LONG AS 3 TO 6
HOURS...THERE WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL
COVER THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND FINE
TUNE AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND BECOMES MORE MANAGEABLE BY THE
GUIDANCE PACKAGES. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN MONDAYS FORECAST ONLY AS
REGION WILL BE ON EAST (WARMER) SIDE OF UPPER LOW THEN.

ALONG WITH THE FREQUENT SHOWERS...TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE NICEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED
LOW WILL START TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE AFTER
SUNSET...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR
POSSIBLE WITHIN WHATEVER ACTIVITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL LIE VERY CLOSE TO OUR AREA...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
A FACTOR. THERE WILL BE SHOWER THREAT DAILY...WITH HIGHEST
POSSIBILITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...SFM
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
518 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-270930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
518 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-270930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
518 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1249 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             N BROCKPORT             43.22N 77.94W
06/26/2009  M0.75 INCH       MONROE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEVAN