Tornado Warning 5, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
308 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING
AND NORTHERN COLORADO IS PUSHING THROUGH THE DENVER METRO AREA NOW.
THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM FORT COLLINS TO FORT LUPTON TO BYERS. AT
ITS CURRENT PACE THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE METRO AREA BY
SUNRISE. AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND COOLER. DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST ARE IN THE MID 50S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO TODAY. THE LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH
THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE STRENGTH
OF IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE SLOW. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON. IF CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS PAN OUT CAPES WILL
REMAIN BELOW A 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED IN THE GRIDS. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA/
SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX.  ON MONDAY
...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.  THE AMS MAY BE FAIRLY
CAPPED OVER THE NERN PLAINS...BUT NAM12 SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT
INSTBY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE WITH CAPES FM
800-1100 J/KG IN THE AFTN. ENUF SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
SOUNDINGS TO SUGGEST A CHANCE OF SVR STORMS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DENVER.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE....ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT WITH
A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHUD
DECREASE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
AGAIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN BORDERS.  TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER WRN AND NRN COLORADO AHD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACRS CO ON WEDNESDAY AFTN.  LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL
AGAIN INCREASE AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS PUSHES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWFA.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A DECENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN CO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MORE RIDGING IS EVIDENT OVER COLORADO OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT A TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
STATE...WITH A CHANCE/SLGT CHC OF AFTN/EVNG TSTMS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY 12Z.
CEILINGS WILL BE 500 TO 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
BELOW MILE AT TIMES. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT LATE THIS
MORNING AS THE AIRMASS WARMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MEIER/COOPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1033 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2009

COZ030>051-081200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1033 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH NOON...THEN SPREAD OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND
HEAVY RAIN. A DRY LINE IS ALSO SETTING UP ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
WHICH MAY ALSO FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY.
WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY NOON ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO.

SWE/DBB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1043 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2009

COZ035-038-071715-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY CO-
LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET CO-
1043 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR

  NORTHEASTERN LARIMER COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN WELD COUNTY

AT 1041 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARR...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF FORT
COLLINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROCKPORT...NATURAL FORT REST AREA AND CARR.

LAT...LON 4099 10465 4072 10472 4071 10510 4099 10511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 256DEG 11KT 4079 10499

SWE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
100 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     HAIL             3 ENE FORT COLLINS      40.57N 105.02W
06/07/2009  M1.00 INCH       LARIMER            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHREDDING LEAVES. MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

FREDIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
108 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             2 NE WELLINGTON         40.72N 104.97W
06/07/2009  M1.25 INCH       LARIMER            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1248 PM     HAIL             3 ENE FORT COLLINS      40.57N 105.02W
06/07/2009  M1.00 INCH       LARIMER            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHREDDING LEAVES. MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

FREDIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
137 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     HAIL             3 S DENVER              39.68N 104.96W
06/07/2009  M1.25 INCH       DENVER             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DENVER UNIVERSITY

1250 PM     HAIL             2 NE WELLINGTON         40.72N 104.97W
06/07/2009  M1.25 INCH       LARIMER            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1248 PM     HAIL             3 ENE FORT COLLINS      40.57N 105.02W
06/07/2009  M1.00 INCH       LARIMER            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHREDDING LEAVES. MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

FREDIN