Tornado Warning 40, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 090205
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
905 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

NDC025-089-090215-
/O.CAN.KBIS.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-090709T0215Z/
STARK ND-DUNN ND-
805 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN DUNN AND NORTHWESTERN STARK
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE ROTATION IN THIS STORM HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.

LAT...LON 4699 10316 4699 10304 4705 10304 4708 10303
      4713 10296 4694 10276 4686 10311 4694 10322
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 239DEG 14KT 4696 10298

$$

PJA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
208 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN FORECASTING PROBLEM TODAY IS THE DEVELOPING SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE INTEREST OF TIME...WILL
KEEP THINGS BRIEF. A STRONG JET STREAK IS NOSING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA CURRENTLY...AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER
THE SAME REGION IS FORECAST TO TREK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
ARE QUITE BACKED...CAUSING HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WHERE LOW LEVEL CAPE MAY BE LARGER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING PRIOR TO ONSET OF CONVECTION. FURTHER EAST...THE
SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE...BUT THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE SUN BEGINS SETTING...CAUSING STORMS TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND REDUCING TORNADO THREAT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT FORM
AHEAD OF THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.

SO...THE EVENT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES...HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
SOME TIME BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM CDT. THEN...THE LINE SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE
WIND EVENT...WHERE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

THEREAFTER...WINDS MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY. GRIDS INDICATE WINDS JUST BELOW THAT...SO THE SITUATION
WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED CLOSER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

FAST...NORTHWEST FLOW EAST OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. MINOR SHORTWAVES ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE THIS FLOW WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY AND WILL LEAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW ON SUNDAY. 12 UTC GFS IS STILL FASTER THAN
THE 00 UTC ECMWF IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE
LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAIN AND/OR A SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE ON TUESDAY. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR THE MONTANA BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE TO FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. A BOW ECHO IS LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE IN THE EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS BOW ECHO WILL LIKELY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT PROPERTY. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN JAMESTOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KTS AT 2000 FEET AGL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SCHECK/PJA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

NDZ003-009>012-017>021-031>034-040>045-092100-
RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-
OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
354 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009 /254 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD NORTHEAST BY SUNSET. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS NORTH DAKOTA IN
A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THE WEST. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER EITHER
DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NDZ001-002-004-005-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-092100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
354 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD NORTHEAST BY SUNSET. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS NORTH DAKOTA IN
A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SEVERE WEATHER EITHER DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SCHECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
821 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     TORNADO          3 N MEDORA              46.96N 103.52W
07/08/2009                   BILLINGS           ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO

&&

AWOLF/SCHECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
823 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             PORTAL                  49.00N 102.55W
07/08/2009  E1.00 INCH       BURKE              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AWOLF/SCHECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
824 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTHGATE               48.99N 102.26W
07/08/2009                   BURKE              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED DOWNED POWER LINES FROM WIND

&&

AWOLF/SCHECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
825 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             NORTHGATE               48.99N 102.26W
07/08/2009  E0.88 INCH       BURKE              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

AWOLF/SCHECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
826 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     TORNADO          3 E NORTHGATE           48.99N 102.20W
07/08/2009                   BURKE              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OIL STORAGE TANKS DAMAGED WITH VISIBLE DEBRIS FIELD.

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TORNADO          3 NW POWERS LAKE        48.59N 102.69W
07/08/2009                   BURKE              ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TORNADO LIFTED UP WITH SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS STILL
            VISIBLE.

&&

VROLLER