Gale Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

782 
WHUS73 KAPX 130339
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1039 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. INCREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

LMZ323-131145-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SC.Y.0004.090113T0600Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.GL.W.0002.090113T0600Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.UP.W.0002.090113T0600Z-090114T0000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
1039 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY. 

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MEANS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE ON VESSELS. THESE CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TO NAVIGATION. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT
MARINERS NOT TRAINED TO OPERATE IN THESE CONDITIONS OR VESSELS
NOT PROPERLY EQUIPED TO DO SO...REMAIN IN PORT OR AVOID THE
WARING AREA.

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ347-348-LMZ342-344>346-131145-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0002.090113T0600Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.UP.W.0002.090113T0600Z-090114T0000Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1039 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING MEANS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
ACCUMULATE ON VESSELS. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS TO NAVIGATION. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS NOT
TRAINED TO OPERATE IN THESE CONDITIONS OR VESSELS NOT PROPERLY
EQUIPED TO DO SO...REMAIN IN PORT OR AVOID THE WARING AREA.

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-349-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-131145-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0004.090113T0600Z-090114T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1039 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY. 

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

425 
WHUS73 KAPX 131034
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
534 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

.AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION THIS MORNING. INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.

LHZ347-348-LMZ323-342-344>346-131845-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
534 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING MEANS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
ACCUMULATE ON VESSELS. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS TO NAVIGATION. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS NOT
TRAINED TO OPERATE IN THESE CONDITIONS OR VESSELS NOT PROPERLY
EQUIPPED TO DO SO...REMAIN IN PORT OR AVOID THE WARING AREA.

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-349-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-131845-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
534 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

002 
WHUS73 KAPX 131556
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1056 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

.AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION THIS MORNING. INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.

LMZ323-342-344>346-140000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1056 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH WAVES OF 5 TO LOCALLY 10 FEET
EXPECTED. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE COMMON.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MEANS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE ON VESSELS. THESE CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TO NAVIGATION. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT
MARINERS NOT TRAINED TO OPERATE IN THESE CONDITIONS OR VESSELS
NOT PROPERLY EQUIPPED TO DO SO...REMAIN IN PORT OR AVOID THE
WARING AREA.

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ347-348-140000-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1056 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET
EXPECTED. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE COMMON.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING MEANS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
ACCUMULATE ON VESSELS. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS TO NAVIGATION. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS NOT
TRAINED TO OPERATE IN THESE CONDITIONS OR VESSELS NOT PROPERLY
EQUIPPED TO DO SO...REMAIN IN PORT OR AVOID THE WARING AREA.

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-349-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-140000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1056 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE COMMON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LAWRENCE

956 
WHUS73 KAPX 132111
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
411 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

.AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION THIS MORNING. INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.

LHZ347-348-140300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.CAN.KAPX.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090114T0300Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
411 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE GALE WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ323-344>346-140300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090114T0300Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
411 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ342-132215-
/O.CAN.KAPX.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
411 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-132215-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
411 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ349-140300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090114T0300Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
411 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
331 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

A STORM SYSTEM AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

AJS/MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/...TONIGHT

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY PLEASANT
AFTERNOON FOR MID JANUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS WELL UNDERWAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH A FEW
PEAKS OF THE SUN AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IS SPREADING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOW THESE TWO WAVES INTERACT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS.

FIRST AND FOREMOST...SURFACE TROF CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AT THE MOMENT. AS THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...THEY ARE LIKELY TO PHASE
AND ACT TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THIS TREND SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...IT WILL FINALLY DRAG THE SURFACE
TROF FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. WITH THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE LAKES...WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN MOST
SPOTS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (3 TO 5 INCHES) IN
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW KICKS IN LATE
TONIGHT.

THE BEST PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RAPID INSTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM...WE WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST AFTER THE SURFACE TROF SWINGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE
AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS IN THE SOUTH AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
NORTH. THUS...BLOWING SNOW LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS/20S THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SURFACE TROF DROPS
THROUGH...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (SOUTH) AND BELOW ZERO (NORTH). WITH THE
WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND 20S.

NOW...CONSIDERING ALL THESE THREATS (SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS) AND NONE OF THEM REACHING WARNING
CRITERIA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO GO WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS...REPLACING THE CURRENT WATCH
IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. KAS

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND

WELL ADVERTISED AND MUCH TALKED ABOUT ARCTIC PLUNGE BEGINNING ITS
RAPID SOUTHWARD JOURNEY BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT IS JUST
ABOUT READY TO CROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WITH READINGS WELL
BELOW ZERO NORTH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS (ON THE ORDER OF -15F TO
-30F). THIS...COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND GUSTY WIND
PRODUCING LEAD WAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WHAT IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY ACTIVE TRUE CLIPPER REGIME THROUGH THE
DURATION...REMAINS TOP RUNG ON THE FORECAST PRIORITY STEP LADDER FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TUESDAY...ARCTIC INTRUSION ENTERS WITH A VENGEANCE BEHIND DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORTS MERGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE MORNING. AS SYSTEM SNOW EXITS STAGE
RIGHT...ONGOING NORTH TO NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
TARGET THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AS DELTA T/S JUMP TO THE MID
20S CELSIUS AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID 20S
CELSIUS. DESPITE EXCELLENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY...QUICK WITHDRAW
OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SUPPORT...COUPLED WITH SUB 800MB INVERSION
LEVELS AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS AS DGZ
GOES SUB CLOUD LEVEL SHOULD KEEP ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
MINIMAL...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT FRESH
POWDER WILL EASILY BE BLOWN ABOUT BY GUSTY NNW WINDS DURING THE
MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH WIND CHILL VALUES PLUMMETING INTO THE
-10F TO -20F RANGE... NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE DAY ALL AREAS. EXPECT THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE PIVOT TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO TARGET THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS OF BOTH PENINSULAS
DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH
RAPID DRYING NOTED ABOVE 850MB INVERSION AND SMALL FLAKE GROWTH IN
INCREASINGLY COLD REGIME. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK OVERNIGHT AND GO
LIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER. GIVEN COLD AIRMASS...COULD
SEE RATHER VIGOROUS LAND BREEZE RESPONSE...WHICH COULD SET THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE INDUCED MESOLOWS. OF COURSE...PINPOINTING EXACT
PLACEMENT RATHER FUTILE AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME INDICATION BY
HI-RES GUIDANCE OF A RATHER PRONOUNCED MESOLOW FORMING IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THESE FEATURES AS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONES MORE THAN
CAPABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IF THE PIVOT INLAND. AS FOR
THOSE TEMPERATURES...MID AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES SHORELINES. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE FLOW FROM ONTARIO...WHICH COULD REALLY
PLUMMET EASTERN UPPER READINGS. HAVE TENTATIVELY SIDED WITH THIS
SCENARIO...DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
THE MIGHTY MAC (WHICH MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO CONSERVATIVE).

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEXT IN ENDLESS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR SLICES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF BETTER
DYNAMICS/SURFACE LOW...WITH LATEST NAM-WRF MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE AND SOLID SNOWPACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BELIEVE SOUTHERN ROUTE IS THE WAY TO GO...AND EXPECT
SURFACE LOW TO CUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SNOWPACK. THIS PATH WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO OUR SOUTH. STILL...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE HURON
ENHANCEMENT...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...AS WINDS GO EAST/NORTHEAST AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -20C. WILL CARRY A GENERAL INCH OR
TWO MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPWARDS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE. MUCH LIKE TUESDAY...SYSTEM SNOW EXITS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY NORTH FLOW LAKE EFFECT TOWARDS
MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE GOING FULL BORE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN NW (THURSDAY) TO WNW/W (FRIDAY) FAVORED AREAS
AS COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE MID 20S CELSIUS. EXTREME OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY ...COINCIDENT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE GOOD INVERSION
DEPTHS AND REMNANT MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH PRELIMINARY LOOK AT
MODEL DERIVED POINT SOUNDINGS...WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SUB CLOUD BASE WITH SUCH COLD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. THUS...STILL THINKING LOW END SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE
THE RULE...ON THE ORDER OF 10/15 TO 1...WITH MORE OF A HIGH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTING/LOW ACCUMULATING TALCUM POWDER TYPE SNOW.
OF COURSE...SURE DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY AMOUNT TO
SEVERAL INCHES IN FAVORED AREAS...WITH EVENTUALLY NEED OF ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO COVER ACCUMULATIONS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AS A
SIDE NOTE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY DID REVEAL A
COMPLETELY FROZEN OVER GREEN BAY WITH SOME FLOATING ICE OVER MID
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...A NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED WIDESPREAD ICE
THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LAST WEEK VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING WHAT APPEARED TO BE EXTENSIVE PANCAKE ICE FORMATION
NORTH OF BEAVER ISLAND STRONGLY SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
BEAVER ISLAND TO THE STRAITS IS ESSENTIALLY ICE COVERED. FULLY
EXPECT TO SEE SOME EFFECTS OF THIS...WITH REDUCED SNOWFALL INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE DOWNWIND OF THIS ICE COVER. MUCH TAMER AWAY FROM THE
TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS...WITH JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BIGGER STORY PROBABLY CENTERED ON
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS (A LITTLE
WARMER NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE) AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WELL BELOW ZERO.

REST OF THE FORECAST (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL ON BOARD FOR A SIGNIFICANT RELAXATION WITH THE
COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL RIDGE AXIS SUCCUMBS TO PACIFIC ENERGY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING
INLAND AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT BECOMING SQUASHED. THIS SHOULD PUSH
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR UP INTO NORTHEAST CANADA...ALLOWING A RARE
NORTHWEST FLOW WAA REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKES REGION. GROUND
HUGGING ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL INITIALLY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT SEE NO REASON HIGHS WILL NOT PUSH WELL INTO
THE 20S BY SUNDAY AND 20S TO THE LOWER 30S BY MONDAY (PRETTY
TOASTY...HUH). DESPITE THE OVERALL RELAXATION...THE PATTERN REMAINS
AN ACTIVE ONE AS CLIPPER SYSTEMS DROP SOUTHEAST UNDER MAINTENANCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. OF COURSE...TIMING AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE RATHER
SUSPECT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS PROG FIRST SUCH SYSTEM SATURDAY...
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MONDAY?. SOME GOOD NEWS FOR THE SNOW-WEARY...
MODIFYING AIRMASS AND WHAT SHOULD BE COLDEST OF THE SEASON LAKE
WATERS (MAYBE SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVER?) SHOULD KEEP ANY
LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN CHECK.

MSB

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...UNTIL AN
ARCTIC FRONT DROPS INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WHITEFISH BAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING NEAR THE SAG BAY NEAR
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS TO
AROUND 35...POSSIBLY 40 KTS TO MANY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SURROUNDING LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.

SMD

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1241 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD AT KTVC AND KPLN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KAPN. TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL DROP SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OUT OF
THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE
WINDS WILL CREATE LOW VISIBILITIES AS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EVENTUALLY THE SNOW WILL
EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS AROUND KTVC. KPLN AND KAPN
WILL SEE THE SNOW WEAKEN OR END...BUT THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE.

KAS

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ008-015>036-041-042.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-
     341.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ342-344>346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-
     346-349.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ347-348.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
526 AM EST MON JAN 12 2009

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
131330-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
526 AM EST MON JAN 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHEN A STORM
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PLOW THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING ARCTIC AIR...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...AND LOW WIND CHILLS. PLEASE SEE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS. PLEASE SEE LATEST WINTER WEATHER WATCH FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SET ITS SIGHTS ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL
BE ABLE TO BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AND LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW TO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...BOTH LAND AND MARINE...PLEASE RELAY SNOW...WIND AND
VISIBILITY REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SMD