Wind Advisory 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 061958
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1058 AM AKST SUN DEC 6 2009

AKZ225-062100-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-091207T0000Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
1058 AM AKST SUN DEC 6 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
446 PM AKST SAT DEC 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE VERY STRONG 952 MILLIBAR LOW NOW ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF ATTU
HAS MOVED FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD AND RETAINED MORE STRENGTH THAN
THE COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST IT. HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
IS NOW A REMARKABLE 948 MILLIBAR CENTER ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR...AND READY TO TURN THE CORNER...CHASE ITS
PREDECESSOR AND ABSORB IT JUST ABOVE THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST LOW HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS SPEED OF
MOVEMENT TO ABOUT 15 KNOTS WHILE THE SECOND IS MOVING 35 KNOTS.
THE PATH OF THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE FIRST
ONES TRACK...SO THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL BRING TO THE
WEST COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE FIRST
LOW BROUGHT.

THE OCCLUSION AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
ANADYR DOWN TO THE WEST END OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND IS AT LAST
STARTING TO WEAKEN. THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH THIS FRONT IS
LARGE...THICK AND SOLID. PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON OUR SIDE
OF DALL POINT HAS BEEN MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE COAST...BUT SOME IS
ADVANCING UP INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN PRECIPITATION /TO THE WEST/ AND ZERO PRECIPITATION /TO THE
EAST/ RUNS THROUGH BETTLES DOWN TO TANANA. A SHORT WAVE ALOFT
MOVING RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN ALASKA UP TO THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT
WILL BRING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DUE TO FALL OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT.

THE NAM AND GFS MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR FORECASTS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG HIGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER ALL OF THE EASTERN MAINLAND
THROUGH MONDAY. THE 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS IN THE CENTER OF THIS
FEATURE ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE 5700 METERS...A NUMBER
ALASKANS ASSOCIATE WITH WARM SUMMER WEATHER.

WHILE THE PHYSICS PRESENTLY IN OPERATION ARE NO DIFFERENT THAN AT
ANY OTHER TIME...THE INTENSITY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER AND WEST
OF ALASKA IS SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER 1 PERCENT OF POSSIBLE
PATTERNS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE RUSSIAN COAST INTO THE WEST BERING
SEA IS AT A STRENGTH HARD TO IMAGINE. THE MASSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MARITIME AIR FROM ITS ORIGIN NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE UP
TO THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA HAS BROUGHT GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO
MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS
WALES /AT THE WEST END OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA/ AND WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPERATURE OF 37 DEGREES. THIS IS NOT
UNPRECEDENTED...BUT RARE FOR EARLY DECEMBER.

AS THE FIRST LOW HEADS WEST AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF AND SMALL DECREASE IN THE WINDS TONIGHT. AS THE
SECOND AND NOW STRONGER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC ON
SUNDAY...AND REACHES THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE WINDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL REJUVENATE. A FINAL
AND APPARENTLY LASTING DECREASE IN THE WIND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND TO PULL AWAY FROM ALASKA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE COMPUTER FORECASTS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE
FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS BOTH
FORECAST AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK BEGINNING OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST A STRONGER AND
COLDER OUTBREAK THAN THE GFS. THE MODEL FORECASTS ARE EDGING MORE
CLOSELY TOGETHER SO THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN THE FORECASTS IS
IMPROVING.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICS FORECASTS DO NOT SEEM TO BE GIVING THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECASTS MUCH WEIGHT. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FORECASTS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR ARE AT LEVELS ..ABOVE.. SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS IS
DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND. THE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED STRONGLY TOWARD COLDER WEATHER.

RETURNING TO THE WEST COAST...THE WINDS OUT THERE ARE RETAINING
STRENGTH LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED SO THE MARINE FORECASTS
ARE BEING RETURNED UP TO GALES FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...THE WESTERN MAINLAND...AND
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE ARE ALL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND READINGS IN THE 20S...PERHAPS UP TO THE LOWER 30S...CAN
BE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE BY MID
DAY TOMORROW. ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE...TEMPERATURES CAME UP TO THE 30S AND 40S EARLIER TODAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ227.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. &&

TF DEC 09