Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 172312
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
312 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY
FOR STRONG WIND IN THE ALASKA RANGE FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY
FOR STRONG WIND FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE...

AKZ225-181830-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090720T0600Z/
DENALI-
312 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY
FOR STRONG WIND IN THE ALASKA RANGE...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY. 

DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS OF 25 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS EVENING. STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AKZ226-181830-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090720T0600Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
312 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY
FOR STRONG WIND IN THE ALASKA RANGE...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY. 

DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS OF 25 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS EVENING. STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 181529
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
729 AM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

AKZ225-226-181630-
/X.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090720T0600Z/
DENALI-EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
729 AM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS OF 25 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY BUT RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE THE 30 PERCENT CRITERIA.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
444 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT ECMF/GFS/NAM RUNS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHERN MAINLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MON AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHARPENING OF THE RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA BY MON AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD INTO CANADA WITH A MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN MAINLAND. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS IN AREAS
NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER...AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...
AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR.

FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA WILL BRING RAIN OR SHOWERS TO ZONES 213/214/211/WESTERN
210/SOUTHWESTERN 212/SOUTHWESTERN 215 TODAY. RAIN OR SHOWERS
SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF 212/MOST OF 210/207 TONIGHT
WITH CHANCE OF RAIN IN 208/209.

CONVECTIVE FORECAST
ZONE 206...ISOLD TSTMS SAT/SUN.
ZONE 218...ISOLD TSTMS SAT/SUN.
ZONE 219...ISOLD TSTMS SUN.
ZONE 220...ISOLD TSTMS SAT/SUN.
ZONE 223...ISOLD TSTMS FRI.
ZONE 224...ISOLD TSTMS FRI/SAT/SUN.
ZONE 225...ISOLD TSTMS FRI.
ZONE 226...ISOLD TSTMS FRI/SAT.

THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD SAT AND SUN.

12Z FAIRBANKS RAOB SHOWS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP BETWEEN 750-790 MB.
EXPECTED MAX TEMPERATURE NEAR 75 WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH
THE CAP.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRI...MIN RH MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT IN CNTRL/ERN INTERIOR...35-50
      PERCENT IN WRN INTERIOR. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE
      15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 MPH COULD CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
      IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SAT...MIN RH MAINLY 25-35 PERCENT CNTRL/ERN INTERIOR...35-45 PERCENT
      IN WRN INTR. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE 15 WITH GUSTS
      25 MPH COULD CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUN...STRONGER SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS EXPECTED IN ALASKA RANGE...SOUTHERLY
      15-25 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS 35 MPH. MIN RH COULD DROP BELOW 30
      PERCENT AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS IN RECENT DAYS HAS CAUSED INCREASED GLACIAL
SNOWMELT IN THE ALASKA RANGE...RESULTING IN A RISE IN THE LEVEL OF
THE TANANA RIVER. CURRENT STAGE AT FAIRBANKS IS ABOUT 22.7 FEET...
EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 22.9 FT FRI EVE. CURRENT STAGE AT NENANA
IS 9.2 FEET...EXPECTED TO RISE TO 9.6 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR PKZ210.
&&

JUL 09