Storm Warning 91, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 011225
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020300-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 MB LOW 450 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 983 MB 550
NM NORTH OF SHEMYA SUN EVENING AND THEN MOVE TO 230 NM WEST OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND TUE MORNING AT 991 MB. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN
BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SUN NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND
MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-020300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-020300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E WIND 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-020300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 170 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND 40 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE. A POSITIVELY TILTED NOSE OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE YUKON. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTHWARD TO THE BERING SEA. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WITH A STRONG UPPER JET EXTENDING OUT OF ASIA
ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN UP AND ACROSS THE BERING
SEA...HELPING TO FLATTEN OUT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. FINALLY...A
CUT-OFF LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 140 DEGREES WEST SOUTH OF
THE PANHANDLE. SYSTEMS CROSSING OVER THE RIDGE HAVE BEEN DROPPING
INTO THIS TROUGH.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCER TODAY IS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA UNDER
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED UPPER WAVES MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED UPPER LIFT. THE SNOW
LIGHTENED UP OVER THE WESTERN KENAI...ANCHORAGE...NORTH COOK INLET
REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT HAS REDEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED
AROUND NOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THERE
HAS BEEN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
HAS REALLY KEPT ACCUMULATION LIGHT ACROSS ANCHORAGE...BUT THE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING BY AND THIS FLOW IS WEAKENING. A SURFACE LOW HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF KODIAK...WHICH WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO A SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE IN THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS
ABOUT -7 DEGREES CELSIUS...SO THE AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD. THIS IS
REFLECTED OBSERVED SNOW DENSITY RATIOS FROM AROUND THE REGION WHICH
HAVE RANGED FROM 30:1 TO 50:1. BECAUSE OF THIS SNOW IS PILING UP
QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS...WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED FROM
WASILLA TO WILLOW AND NORTHWARD TO CHULITNA. DUE TO RECENT
INTENSIFICATION OF SNOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL BACK OVER WESTERN
ALASKA DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR
ZONES 101 111 AND 145...FOR UP TO 8 INCHES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FORECASTS IN THE MID TO LONG-TERM
WILL BE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE AGREED UPON SOLUTION. ONE
NOTEWORTHY DEFICIENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS THE
UNDERFORECASTING OF QPF. THE SNOW IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND ACCUMULATING
MORE THAN MODELS INDICATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GULF AND HELPING TO FROM AN UPPER
LOW. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU
SHORTLY AFTER 9 PM. UNTIL THEN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS
WELL AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN STEADY
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
INCREASED EVEN FURTHER THAN THEY HAVE ALREADY. BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW BUILDING WESTWARD AND A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE SNOW...SOME AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW
ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. SIMILARLY...THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH SNOW
WILL QUICKLY LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE BULK
OF ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GULF. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE THE USUAL
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD A BIT BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPPER WAVES DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE
A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL BE ELONGATING AND WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...SO AT THIS
POINT DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A DEVELOPING SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS
WILL RIDE OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE ADVECTING LOTS OF WARM AIR ALONG
WITH IT. THIS AIR WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
HEAD BACK SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN BE VERY TIGHT BETWEEN THE VERY STRONG HIGH AND
MODERATE STRENGTH LOW...SO EXPECT ANOTHER BOUT OF GALE FORCE WINDS
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE BERING
SEA TUESDAY AND THIS PUSHES UP A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER ALASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL REACH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA PROBABLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE BASIC PATTERN OF TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY LONGER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130.
         GALE WARNING...120 121 129 132 150 170 172 175 176 179 180
                        185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...130 138 140 141 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 09