Storm Warning 293, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 260255 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261500-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$

PKZ120-261500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-261500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-261500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-261500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35
KT DURING THE EVENING. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 35 KT 
DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT...SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 
5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-261500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT
500 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBLITY. A SECOND LOW CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATCHKA PENINSULA
STRETCHES INTO THE BERING SEA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA FROM WESTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW AT THE SURFACE IS STACKED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
EXPERIENCING THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK FRONT IS
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GULF COAST BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF DISTURBANCES IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROVING
PROBLEMATIC BEYOND ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE GFS IS CAPTURING THESE
SHORTWAVES FAIRLY WELL AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE MORNING
PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION. THE 12 UTC SOUNDING INDICATES A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
OVER ANCHORAGE. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WHICH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVEN TO TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE REGIONS IN ANCHORAGE
BOWL...WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND MATANUSKA VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WORRIES ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVISORY.

.SOUTHWEST...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP NORTH AND WEST
FACING SLOPES RELATIVELY DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH IN INLAND
LOCATIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY REGIONS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING
RAIN.

.ALEUTIANS...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW REMAINS
RELATIVELY STATIONARY. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE LOW BUT NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH PACIFIC IS PREDICTED TO PERSIST WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHER POPS
AND QPF ALONG THE COAST AS DISTURBANCES PASS BY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 130 132 155
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...180 185

ELN/CC DEC 09