Gale Warning 920, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 161237
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA THU. A STRONG 961 MB N PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 48N
174E THU AFTERNOON AND THEN TO NEAR 50N 178E AT 957 MB LATE THU
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HIGHEST WINDS W.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS S.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
E. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E OF 175W...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. W OF 175W...S WIND 10 TO
20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S AND W.
.FRI...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
E. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING S WIND 20 KT W OF
174W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S
AND W. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S AND W.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
E. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS E. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
E. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 170045
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA THU. A 960 MB LOW NEAR 47N 173E THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO
52N 178W AT 970 MB FRI AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ411-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 171225
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. A STRONG 956 MB N PACIFIC LOW MOVES
TO NEAR 47N 172E THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO NEAR 51N 178E AT 961
MB FRI MORNING...AND THEN MOVES TO NEAR 55N 180W AT 963 MB SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND 
SEAS S. 
.TONIGHT...S OF 57N...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. HIGHEST
SEAS WINDS AND SEAS S. N OF 57N...EXCEPT 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 23 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS SW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 TO 13 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 19 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS W. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
SW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 TO 15 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S AND W.
.FRI...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
W. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 22 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS W. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
E. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO
11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE SETTLING DOWN AND SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS IN
THE WAY THE GFS AND NAM ARE DEPICTING THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS BRINGING THE
LOW INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAS A RESIDUAL
TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF IT AND BACK OVER THE SOUND AND EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. THE NAM TAKES THE SAME TRACK WITH THE MAIN LOW BUT THEN
DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW IN THAT TROUGH BETWEEN KENAI AND HOMER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SECONDARY LOW IS LIKELY TO BE A KEY IN THE SNOW
FORECASTS IN NOT ONLY THE COOK INLET REGION BUT OVER A LARGER PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
MAKES THIS DEVELOPMENT SEEM FAIRLY LIKELY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
UNTIL IT IS OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
THE SURFACE PATTERN HAS A LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND ANOTHER LOW A FEW HUNDRED SOUTH OF IT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND MERGE WITH THE
OTHER LOW IN THE SOUND WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THERE IS LOTS OF WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
SNOW...EXPECTED EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING MOISTURE STRAIGHT INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUOUS SNOW IN THE VALDEZ AND CORDOVA
AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL PACKING IN THE COOK INLET
AREA IS CONDUCIVE FOR PERIODS OF SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BRING BLOWING SNOW TO THOMPSON PASS WHERE A
BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
DROP WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND BRING HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY INTO THE KODIAK AREA AND AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST.
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WIND CHILLS BEING THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR 40 BELOW ZERO READINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND PARTS OF
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE COLD AIR OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE
STATE WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AN INTENSE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL BRING A BIT OF WARM AIR WITH IT AND BEGIN TO DISPLACE THE COLDER
AIR OVER THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MAKING IT INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE GULF
COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHINOOK IN SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THIS FORECAST PATTERN
PERSISTS...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 131.
MARINE...GALE 132 138 150
   STORM 130
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 132 138 140 141 150 160 165 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 09