Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 310658
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1158 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2008

AZC019-310706-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-080831T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
1158 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL PIMA 
COUNTY...

SOME FLOW LIKELY IS STILL OCCURRING IN WASHES AROUND SELLS BUT THE 
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS OVER. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY 
CONTINUES UNTIL 145 AM MST.

LAT...LON 3207 11214 3203 11159 3184 11159 3181 11210

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SONORA IN COMBINATION WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUT OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT TOOK AWHILE...BUT THE HIGHER POPS WE WERE
ADVERTISING FOR TODAY HAVE MATERIALIZED. RADAR INDICATING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 0330Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PINAL...MOST OF EASTERN PIMA...AND SANTA CRUZ AND WESTERN COCHISE
COUNTIES. STRONGER STORMS IN SONORA ARE DRIFTING NORTH SO WILL KEEP
POPS RATHER HIGH TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO IS KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY ORGANIZED...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT LIFTS NORTH. THE EXCEPTION IS OUT
WEST...WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARGUE FOR DIMINISHING POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ROUGHLY SELLS WESTWARD...AND WE ARE UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. 00Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CAPE/INSTABILITY AND WARMING ALOFT FROM 500-400 MB...WHICH HELPS
EXPLAIN THE RATHER STRATIFORM NATURE OF MOST OF OUR PRECIP TONIGHT.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT FROM EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

STILL EXPECTING THE ACTIVE WEEKEND TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.  MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPROACHES AND
ENERGIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. SPC KEEPS THE 5% PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL CONFINED TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY...BUT SURELY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY 00Z MET GUIDANCE POPS GREATER THAN 80% FOR TUCSON. 00Z
NAM SUGGESTS A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH LIMITED HEATING /HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 80S/ SO THE INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION WE CAN REALIZE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RATHER STRONG TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY...WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVING BEGINNING MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DRAMATICALLY DROP OFF TO 10% OR LESS...BEGINNING MONDAY AND
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KTUS AND KOLS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. SOME STORMS WILL
BE STRONG SUNDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. VISIBILITY
OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO IFR IN HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

TURNER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON