Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 280242
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
742 PM MST WED AUG 27 2008

AZC019-280245-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0083.000000T0000Z-080828T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
742 PM MST WED AUG 27 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM MST FOR EAST CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY...

AT 735 PM MST...THE AUTOMATED RIVER GAGE AT THE PANTANO WASH NEAR 
VAIL REPORTED THAT THE WATER LEVELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINED TO 
WELL WITHIN ITS BANKS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE TAIL END OF THIS HIGH 
WATER FLOW HAS MOVED NORTH OF THIS GAGE...AND IS NOW BETWEEN VAIL 
AND THE PANTANO WASH AT BROADWAY. THE SIGNIFICANT FLOW THAT PASSED 
THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE HARRISON ROAD CROSSING...BUT 
WILL REMAIN WITHIN ITS BANKS.  

ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT FLOW OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE 
PANTANO WASH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE THREAT OF FLASH 
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 745 PM MST. 


LAT...LON 3221 11082 3215 11073 3206 11070 3203 11064
      3196 11064 3196 11066 3201 11065 3204 11071
      3214 11075 3220 11083 3223 11084 3227 11089
      3227 11087 3225 11084

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 PM MST WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SLOW DRYING
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT
5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH A WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LAST EVENINGS 00Z UPPER AIR
PLOTS INDICATE THE WEAK TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH ARIZONA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL LINGERING FROM WHAT
WAS JULIO...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY TODAY.
THEREFORE...I INCREASED THE POP GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A BIT.

MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS HAPPENS A RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GFS SHOWS THIS TROUGH AXIS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EITHER THE NAM OR THE ECMWF. WITH THAT SAID...THE NAM &
EURO SOLUTIONS LOOK WETTER THAN THE GFS. THEREFORE...I INCREASED THE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. GENERALLY WENT ABOUT 10 PERCENT HIGHER
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.

BY FRIDAY BOTH THE EURO & NAM SHOW THIS LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
BACK AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...BUT THE EURO HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THAN DOES EITHER THE GFS OR NAM. WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING THIS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO. THEREFORE...I
DECIDED TO SHOW A SLIGHT UPSWING IN POPS FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A DOWNSWING IN ACTIVITY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH WITH PREVAILING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 7 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 2 TO 4
DEGS BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...LOWS WILL ONLY BE 1 TO 2 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH CIGS AS LOW AS
BKN030 AGL/VSBYS 1-3SM IN HEAVY RAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
119 PM MST WED AUG 27 2008

AZZ019-029>035-281400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
119 PM MST WED AUG 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK TROUGH WHICH LIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND THE ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL MOVE
TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...EXISTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND RESULT IN A CONTINUATION
OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS WEEKEND AS DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON