Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 160529
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1029 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

AZC003-160600-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-080816T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
1029 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 1024 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY. 

RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE STORMS HAVE BEEN 
DECREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. HOURLY RAINFALL 
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY FROM WHEN THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING WAS FIRST ISSUED. THE LATEST ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT AMOUNTS 
OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE FAIRLY 
COMMON NEAR BOWIE AND WILLCOX...BUT ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN 
TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BOWIE...WILLCOX AND KANSAS SETTLEMENT. 

THREE HOUR RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT A LARGE SWATH OF WELL OVER 
ONE INCH OCCURRED FROM NEAR WILLCOX TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER NEAR 
SAN SIMON AND EXTENDED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FOR 10 TO 20 MILES. 
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES MAY HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE DOS CABEZAS 
MOUNTAINS EAST OF WILLCOX AND SOUTHWEST OF BOWIE. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE 
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS 
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. 

LAT...LON 3237 10982 3240 10906 3201 10907 3196 10978

$$

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 160554
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1054 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

AZC003-160601-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-080816T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
1054 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

THE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY HAVE BEEN 
DECREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HOUR. AS A RESULT...RADAR 
RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 
1100 PM MST. 

CONSIDERABLE RAIN FELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN WILLCOX AND 
SAN SIMON AND SOUTH FOR ABOUT 10 TO 20 MILES. MOTORISTS TRAVELING IN 
THIS AREA SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION SINCE WASHES ARE LIKELY STILL 
FLOWING. 

LAT...LON 3237 10982 3240 10906 3201 10907 3196 10978

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
828 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE CONJUNCTION OF UTAH...WYOMING AND COLORADO.
CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR IS DETECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER COCHISE COUNTY AT THE PRESENT TIME. THESE
STORMS ARE MAINLY HEAVY RAINERS...THUS THE REASON FOR A COUPLE OF
FLOOD ADVISORIES...ONE OVER EASTERN SANTA CRUZ AND ANOTHER OVER
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...WHICH IF CONDITIONS WARRANT...WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 915 PM AND 945 PM RESPECTIVELY.

WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW HAS
SETUP OVER ARIZONA AS EVIDENCED IN THIS EVENINGS KTWC SOUNDING. THE
SOUNDING SHOWS A DRIER AIRMASS THAN DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS
WITH A PWAT OF 1.37 INCHES COMPARED TO 1.65 THIS MORNING AND 1.44
FROM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS PROFILE ALSO SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE COLUMN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
700-500MB LAYER WHERE THE WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK.

SO FAR THE INHERITED POP GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS HANDLE THE ONGOING
SITUATION QUITE WELL...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. SO FAR THE TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MAINLY BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS OF 5
TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH THROUGH WYOMING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHWARD IT WILL ADVECT COOLER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR OVER ARIZONA RESULTING IN A STEEPER LAPSE RATE AND MORE
INSTABILITY. ALSO...A FEW VORT MAXES WILL MOST LIKELY ROTATE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA PROVIDING DYNAMICAL FORCING AND ENHANCING
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND MAYBE SUNDAY. A DETRIMENT TO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS THE DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IT WILL BRING
AS IT SLIDES INTO COLORADO. BUT...SINCE THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE...THE INITIAL INFLUENCE OF THE LOW WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY/S CONVECTION IS THEREFORE VERY
DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY AND THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESTABLISHING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARIZONA. THEY ALL HAVE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
LOCATED IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THEREFORE...WILL REDUCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THAT
TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EVANS

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1218 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

AZZ019-029-030-033>035-160700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1218 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MIXES WITH THE DAYS
HEATING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.
THEREFORE ...GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH...LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. MAIN THREAT
FROM STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-032-160700-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
1218 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MIXES WITH THE DAYS HEATING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.
THEREFORE ...GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH...LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. MAIN THREAT
FROM STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON