Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 060419
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2008

AZC019-060530-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080706T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
919 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 914 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN 8 MILES WEST OF 
TUCSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY AN AREA BOUNDED BY RIVER...INA...ORACLE ROAD 
AND INTERSTATE 10. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES 
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA. AN AUTOMATED RAIN GAGE AT THE CDO 
WASH NEAR INA REPORTED 1.54 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN...AND ANOTHER 
GAGE LOCATED AT PIMA WASH NEAR FIRST AVENUE REPORTED 1.02 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO FILL NORMALLY DRY WASHES...ROADWAY 
DIPS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS RESULTING IN FLASH 
FLOODING. THE WASHES THAT FLOW ACROSS SILVERLY ROAD BETWEEN INA 
AND GRANT WILL LIKELY BY FLOODED.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

LAT...LON 3247 11112 3249 11085 3221 11090 3215 11101
      3236 11124

$$

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 060527
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1027 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2008

AZC019-060536-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080706T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
1027 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

ALTHOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY FOR 
THE NEXT HOUR...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 
1030 PM MST. 


LAT...LON 3247 11112 3249 11085 3221 11090 3215 11101
      3236 11124

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1250 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM
ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GENERATE THE DAILY CYCLE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MID LEVELS GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH AN APPROACHING
WEAK TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NORTHWEST ARIZONA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM LAST EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE...BUT ALSO OVER SONORA MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE...A PRETTY GOOD CUMULUS FIELD IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHEASTERN SONORA AND ALL OF CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. RADAR IS DETECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIM AND ALSO
THE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM...COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING UNMODIFIED SHOWED SLIGHT WARMING ABOVE
AROUND 550MB AND SLIGHT COOLING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE SOUNDING
EXHIBITED A PWAT OF 1.49 INCHES WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 5 AND A
CAPE OF AROUND 2700 J/KG. HOWEVER...MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING
T=100TD=60 YIELDED A CAPE OF AROUND 2400 J/KG IF USING THE SURFACE
PARCEL LIFTING METHOD...BUT AROUND 1800 J/KG IF USING THE MEAN TEMP
LIFTING METHOD. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS STILL A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY ON
TAP. BASED ON THE SOUNDING AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE WEST OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST TODAY. POP FORECAST OF
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST PLACES LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND INTO COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS THE HIGH GETS PUSHED EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH IS BACK TO
THE NW OVER CALIFORNIA...AND THIS ONE MOVES GENERALLY ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A COL
GENERALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING UP FROM MEXICO INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NAM HAS BEEN DOING A FAIRLY
GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING THE DAY TO DAY ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART...SO
MY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE NAM...BUT
WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO BLEND WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH THAT
SAID...I INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NOT
DRAMATICALLY. BASICALLY INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY OR SO. SHOULD
THEN SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...SO I INCREASED POPS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. THE PHOENIX OFFICE SAID THEY WOULD DO LIKEWISE.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
LOWS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A DAILY CYCLE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A WET
PERIOD COULD BE STORE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG... ERRATIC...AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z SUN...WHERE WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AT TIMES. OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STORMS COULD HAVE
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON