Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 040048
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
548 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

AZC019-021-040200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080704T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
548 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 536 PM MST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. REPORTS OF RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES IN 20 
MINUTES OR LESS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WITH RAIN GAUGES. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ORACLE AND 
CATALINA. 

THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY FLOW DOWN THE CANADA DEL 
ORO WASH AND WILL IMPACT TRAVELERS TRYING TO CROSS THE CDO AT 
LA CHOLLA AND OVERTON. THIS MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE WATER TO TRAVEL 
INTO THAT AREA...BUT MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO BE CAUTIOUS IF 
CROSSING THE CDO IN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. NEVER TRY TO GO AROUND 
BARRICADED ROADS.   

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3239 11084 3246 11112 3269 11079 3263 11065

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF US INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW AROUND THIS ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL GENERATE A DAILY CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO START THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVELS
AND MUCH BETTER SHEAR PROFILE HAS PROVIDED A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MID LEVEL WARMING TREND
EVIDENT BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MODERATE...BUT AREAS
FROM PIMA COUNTY WESTWARD MAY BE HOLDING ON TO ABOUT -7C AT H5...NOT
THE BEST BUT WE WILL SEE HOW THAT IS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RAMPING UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING. SHALLOW MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH SONORA UP TO 4K FT DEEP
IN THE NORTHERN GULF. MAY NOT GET MUCH DEEPER IN THE SHORT TERM
(RECENT VWP TRENDS SHOW WEAKENING AT ALL LEVELS) BUT EVERY LITTLE
BIT HELPS. STILL FIGHTING RELATIVELY DRIER UPSTREAM FLOW AT MOST
LEVELS AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.

TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL TRACK DUE WEST...BUT
WITH MOISTURE INCREASE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE...EXPECT SONORA TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SUPPORT THROUGH DEEPER OUTFLOW AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN WITH
LESS THAN FAVORABLE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WE STILL MAY MANAGE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF US
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW AROUND THIS ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GENERATE A DAILY CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG...ERRATIC...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z FRI...WHERE WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AT TIMES. OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STORMS COULD HAVE
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON