High Wind Warning 19, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST SAT DEC 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOL...WINDY WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
6000 FEET. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

MARINE LAYER DEPTH REMAINS AROUND 4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TO COVER THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS
OF LIGHT RAIN...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE PLACES WHERE IT
WAS MEASURABLE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MTNS TO
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOW AROUND 14 MB TO
TONOPAH...AND 5 MB TO IMPERIAL. WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS ARE GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 34 MPH RANGE.
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MOING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED
WITH INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MTNS AND DESERTS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH THAT WILL GUST TO 55
MPH AT TIMES. THE BEST SUPPORT FOR STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO SAN DIEGO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH.

BEACH EROSION IS A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WITH
INCREASING SURF COUPLED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF 7.4 FEET SUN
MORNING AND 6.9 FEET MON MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DISRUPT THE
INVERSION AND MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER FOR PARTIAL CLEARING. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS WELL...AND SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY IN MOST
AREAS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SURGES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
NEAR SATURATION TO 10KFT. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
FAVOR SUBSTANTIAL OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY
MODERATE RAIN MONDAY. RAIN TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
COASTAL MTN SLOPES BY MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL FROM 6500
FEET TODAY TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET MONDAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATING TO A FOOT OR MORE ABOVE 6000 FEET.

THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS SOCAL TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING WITH
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COLD UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DURING THAT TIME. 500 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -25 DEG C SO SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT
OF WATERSPOUTS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER LAND IS POSSIBLE.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
LONG RANGE SOLN.

&&

.AVIATION...
132130Z...A COOL...DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOIST LAYER CLOUDS
BASED 2000-3000 FEET WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERS ABOVE TO NEAR
9000 FEET MSL WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AT THE COAST FIRST...THEN THE
CLEARING WILL SPREAD INLAND. DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND SUNDOWN AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT. LOCALLY
STRONG UP AND DOWNDRAFTS AND WINDS SHEAR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...VERY HIGH TIDES OF AROUND 7 FEET OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND...SWELL AND SURF WILL ALL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE
STORM HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE BEACHES... AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEA FOR THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST MONDAY FOR ALL BEACHES...SEE
LAXCFWSGX.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SEE LAXSRFSGX.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TODAY TO 4 AM SUNDAY...SEE LAXMWWSGX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXSPSSGX.

EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC FORECAST...SEE LAXESFSGX.

&&

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PST SAT DEC 13 2008

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-140000-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
300 AM PST SAT DEC 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

AT THE COAST...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AND
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ARE ALL IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT
WEEK. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS AND ON
STEEP TERRAIN. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY FOR HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND ELEVATED SURF.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUE AT THE
BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER ACTIVATION IS NOT
REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY BE ACTIVATED NEXT
WEEK.

MOEDE