Tornado Warning 173, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 120006
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

MOC153-120030-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0173.000000T0000Z-080912T0030Z/
OZARK MO-
706 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
OZARK COUNTY...

AT 704 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO NEAR GAINESVILLE...OR 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AVA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  GAINESVILLE BY 715 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF HARDENVILLE...TECUMSEH AND ZANONI ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE 
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3658 9254 3675 9236 3653 9216 3649 9236
      3649 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 233DEG 14KT 3656 9244

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING)...

THE BEGINNING OF A WET WEEKEND IS UNDERWAY AS ONGOING RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP FUEL FOR RAINFALL INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...A NICE TROPICAL FEED
OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM LOWELL...IS CONTINUING TO
BRING RELETIVELY DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS
WELL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DECIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 20MB ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI SHOULD KEEP THE RAINFALL MACHINE RUNNING INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY...THIS WILL ONLY HELP
TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE WEEKENDS RAIN BY SATURATING ALREADY WET
GROUND.

HATCH

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL
AND OVER WHAT TIME PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT AND HURRICANE REMNANTS
WILL BOTH AFFECT THE CWA.

EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT HAS AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIFT TO WORK
WITH AND WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY HEFTY RAINS. WHILE ITS CURRENT
POSITION IS PROVIDING SOME DECENT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...EXPECT THAT THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST AS WELL AS THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE WILL ACT TO ACTUALLY
PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MUCH OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH. THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA THROUGH SAT MORNING. EVEN WITHOUT THE DIRECT FRONTAL
INFLUENCE...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S. WE MAY BECOME
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SET A FEW STORMS OFF WAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...HELPING TO PROPEL THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. AS THE
FRONT WORKS SOUTH...IT WILL HAVE AN INCREASINGLY TROPICAL AIRMASS
TO WORK WITH AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE MOVE UP INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE ACCELERATING AND SCOOT ON OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE
ACCELERATION...RAINFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH AND AM A
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM RATES
APPROACHING 3 INCHES PER 6 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
AS THEY MAY DROP SUBSTANTIALLY DEPENDING ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CURRENT AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND IFR NOW OVER THE
JOPLIN TERMINAL AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING. DOWNSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND HAVE KEPT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF CLEARING OF THE LOW CEILINGS
AFTER 12Z MAINLY FOR SPRINGFIELD.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
430 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-122130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
430 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BECOME
 SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
 HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROLLA...TO OZARK...TO
 CASSVILLE LINE. ISOLATED TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS...AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
 WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
 MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS
 FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WIDE SPREAD
 SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
 CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IS LIKELY
 THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
 POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
 EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROLLA...TO OZARK...TO CASSVILLE
 LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BARJENBRUCH