Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS83 KSGF 160035
RFWSGF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
735 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELLED FOR THIS EVENING...


KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-160145-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080416T0100Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-BARTON-CEDAR-JASPER-
DADE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
735 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
SUN SETS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE REBOUND FROM AFTERNOON
LOWS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

CLAYCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR MASS SHOULD BE REPLACED FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN TO LOUISIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY. QUICK LOOK AT THE
LATEST CWOP/RAWS/METAR SITES SHOW SOME AREAS OVER THE EASTERN
OZARKS HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING. MOST STATIONS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AND WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MO OZARKS PLATEAU ALREADY...AFFECT OF
THE FREEZE TONIGHT WILL HOPEFULLY BE LIMITED. WE WILL LET THE
FREEZE WARNING GO AS SCHEDULED THIS MORNING.

LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUT THE AREA INTO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SQUEEZE TODAY. BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS/INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES NICELY. WENT PRETTY CLOSE
TO GFS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN CWFA AS THE DAY GOES ON. CONSIDERED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SOME WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT GRIDS DONT QUITE SUPPORT
IT...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE UP TOWARD THE FORT SCOTT/NEVADA/JOPLIN
AREA.

DRY SFC CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME EVEN WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT FETCH FROM THE GULF WILL
EVENTUALLY ALLOW SOME MODIFIED GULF AIR TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE
DAY THU. A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT AND WILL ACCELERATE THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION NORTHWARD. PRECIP/ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER KS/WESTERN MO LATE WED NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT EAST INTO THE REST OF THE AREA THU.

MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS HOW MED RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LOW
THU/FRI. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE
GFS...AND THIS WILL PLAY A ROLL IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE WILL
SEE...WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF MORE BULLISH ON THE RAINFALL. GEM IS
NORTH OF OF THE ECMWF UPPER LOW TRACK BUT ROUGHLY THE SAME SPEED.
RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE WOULD PROBABLY SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE DONT NEED THE RAIN. DID BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE THU-THU NIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THAT ANY MODEL SCENARIO AT THIS
POINT SHOULD GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. LINGERED SOME
RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALSO EXISTS
FOR THU...BUT A NUMBER OF SCENARIOS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WHERE SEVERE
CONVECTION IS CONCERNED. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE
HWO.

MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND FRI. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. DSA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS..PROBABLY BORDERING ON ADVISORY/NPW
CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWFA AND A DRY AIR MASS...WILL
LIKELY BE GOING WITH A RED FLAG WARNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST KS AND
THE OSAGE PLAINS. WARNING CRITERIA RH WILL BE MORE MARGINAL...BUT
THE DEVELOPING STRONGER WINDS TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF A
WARNING. WE COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FIRE DAY INTO
PARTS OF THE MO OZARKS GRASSLAND AREAS AS WELL...BUT THE WIND/RH
SHOULD HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT IN FORESTED AREAS GIVEN THE LARGER AND
WETTER GROUND FUELS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LIGHTER FUELS/GRASSLAND PRAIRIE AREAS OF WESTERN MO/SOUTHEAST
KS. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS
OR GREATER BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ058-070-071-
     082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
451 PM CDT MON APR 14 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-152200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
451 PM CDT MON APR 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS. HIGH
 PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS TONIGHT ALLOWING
 TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

 DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN...RESIDUAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
 ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
 OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND LARGER
 STREAMS.

 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING
 DRY AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
 AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES ALONG AND WEST OF A JOPLIN
 TO WARSAW LINE.

 LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE
 THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG STORM
 SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY