Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Reno, NV

000 
WWUS85 KREV 302250
RFWREV

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
350 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008


CAZ270-NVZ453-458-459-010300-
/O.CON.KREV.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080701T0300Z/
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-WEST CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-
350 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY IN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEVADA FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THESE FAST MOVING STORMS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL OVER MOST LOCATIONS. ANY NEW FIRES IGNITED BY
LIGHTNING TODAY...OR EXISTING FIRES WHICH RESULTED FROM LIGHTNING
STRIKES ON SUNDAY MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY BY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR
THE STORMS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. CONTINUE TO CHECK WEATHER.GOV/RENO/FIRE FOR UPDATES.

$$

GMCGUIRE

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO/FIRE

000 
WWUS85 KREV 010313
RFWREV

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
813 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

CAZ270-NVZ453-458-459-010415-
/O.EXP.KREV.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080701T0300Z/
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-WEST CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-
813 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BECOME VERY ISOLATED OVER WESTERN NEVADA
AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE WEST CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE AND THE
SURPRISE VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO/FIRE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
355 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

CORRECTED TEXT IN LONG TERM SECTION REFERRING TO AREAS WITH TSTMS
IN FORECAST OR THURS-FRI.

.SHORT TERM...
SOME WEAK RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE RENO AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING JET MAX. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT...EVEN
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL LIFT INTO THE PAC NW TODAY. THERE IS A VORT MAX VISIBLE ON WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING LOCATED NEAR 35N 125W...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
OUR AREA AND EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL HIT WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON...RIGHT DURING PEAK HEATING.
THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE JET WILL STILL BE OVER WESTERN
NV THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THESE FACTORS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY.
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE RENO AREA. WITH FLOW OVER THE RENO
AREA BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...THE FLOW OVER THE SIERRA WILL
DAMPEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA.
KEPT SOME ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE RENO ZONE...BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE RENO AREA. USED THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM FOR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE ALWAYS OVERDONE
WITH THAT MODEL. YESTERDAYS NAM COVERAGE WORKED OUT VERY
WELL...DONT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE NOW.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE EAST OF THE RENO AREA TOWARD
LOVELOCK...FALLON AND HAWTHORNE...AS WELL AS TO THE NORTH NEAR
GERLACH AND CEDARVILLE. STORM CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST
MOVING...JUST LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY. WITH PW VALUES STILL AROUND 0.5
TO 0.7 INCHES...FAST MOVING CELLS WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM
GETTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL...MEANING DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
BIG ISSUE AGAIN TODAY. ONLY VERY LOCALIZED AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
ENOUGH TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL...UNDERNEATH THE CORES THE
STRONGEST CELLS. DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR ZONES NORTH AND EAST OF
RENO. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NV. WITH VERY DRY
MIXED LOW LEVELS...STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE AS MANY SEVERE
WARNINGS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF
SHARPLY AFTER 8 PM...AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN AND DAYTIME
HEATING ENDS.

WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AFTER
TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TROF OFF THE WEST COAST IS STILL ON TRACK TO SHEAR OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH SHORTWAVES BRUSHING ACROSS NERN CA AND NWRN NV ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INSTBY IS STILL LIMITED WITH ISOLD CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE USUAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OF NRN
LASSEN-NWRN WASHOE AND MINERAL-MONO-SRN CHURCHILL COUNTIES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT GFS RUN FAVORS THE SOUTH ZONES A LITTLE MORE
THAN THE NORTH FOR POSSIBLY FIRING UP A FEW SHORT LIVED TSTM
CELLS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY...SO WHILE BOTH CONVERGENCE ZONES WILL
INCLUDE LOW END TSTM CHANCE ON THURSDAY...BY FRIDAY THE MENTION OF
TSTMS WILL ONLY BE INCLUDED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. MODERATE WEST
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM
HIGHWAY 50 NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE SOUTH ZONES.
SLIGHT DROP IN MAX TEMPS IS EXPECTED FROM THURS-FRI AS LOWER 500
MB HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPS ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING
LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS AGAIN BACK TO THE REGION. BY SUNDAY A
FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS IN W-CNTRL NV SHOULD REACH 100 DEGREES
AGAIN...AND EVEN HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE HORIZON BEYOND THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CUMULUS
BUILDUPS IN THE MINERAL-MONO CONVERGENCE ZONES EACH DAY. BUT FORCING
NEEDED FOR GENERATING TSTMS IS NOT EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS TODAY AS LINGERING HAZE IS NOT
LIKELY TO REDUCE VSBY BELOW 5 MILES UNLESS A NEW SOURCE OF FIRE
SMOKE FLARES UP THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BECOME THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
DOWNDRAFT AND OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 35 KT OR MORE. THE MOST FAVORED AREA
FOR TSTMS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE HWY 95 CORRIDOR IN W-CNTRL NV
AND ALSO ACROSS NWRN NV-SURPRISE VALLEY NORTH OF KLOL-GERLACH LINE
BTWN 21Z-03Z. MOST CELLS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AT 20-25 KT. ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP UP TO 50 MILES WEST OF THE FAVORED AREA BUT TSTMS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT KRNO OR THE TAHOE BASIN TODAY. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SURPRISE
VALLEY...NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY...WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN AND
RANGE...AS WELL AS MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES. CLASSIC
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN...WITH VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT. THIS A VERY
SIMILAR REGIME TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...EXCEPT THAT THE FOCUS OF
THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEVADA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. THIS WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS ACROSS THE AFFECTED
AREA...MAKING FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL PEAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ENDING BY 8PM
TONIGHT.  DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL END THE DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.  HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NVZ453-458-459.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ270.

&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO