Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
943 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.UPDATE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SUN HAS
BROKEN OUT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND IT IS VERY HUMID BY WESTERN
STANDARDS. LIFTED INDICIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -4 BY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRETTY UNSTABLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. RAISED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE MODELS COMING INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN MOVING UP THE
VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RECENT
BURN AREAS ALONG WITH AREAS TYPICALLY PRONE TO MUDSLIDES WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008/

35IN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF THE CEN MTNS TODAY...HIGHLIGHTING THE BURN AREA THREAT.

THE UPEPR TROF PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...CUTTING OFF THE MONSOON
FLOW. A MIOR TROF MOVES THRU ON WED...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF THE
MONSOON MSTR...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD TSTMS IN THE NRN MTNS. UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS ON THU AND PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL PUT ID BACK INTO SW
FLOW AND A POSSIBLE RETURN OF THE MONSOON MSTR. THE GFS SHOWS THE
MONSOON FLOW CONTINUING TO THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO HAVE
ADDED MTN TSTMS DURING THE AFT/EVE FROM SUN THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HEDGES

AVIATION...GFS AND NAM ARE HINTING AT PRECIPITATION FOCUS MORE OVER
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THAN IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS THAN YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES ABOUT SAME LEVEL OF PROBABILITY.  SINCE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS IN MODELS ARE MORE TO REMOVE BUILDING INSTABILITY OUT OF
MODEL RATHER THAN PINPOINT LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION...WILL KEEP THE
BROADER COVERAGE WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AT ANY AIRDROME.  SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT.  STILL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY CEILING
IMPACTS AND EVEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE TOUGH AFTER SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL YESTERDAY...NO BLDU.  WIND IS WEAK ALOFT AND DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN GUSTS TO 35KT AT ANY AIRPORT.  MESSICK

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
ALSO CONTINUING TODAY.  MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TODAY...IN THE FORM
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO...THAT ENHANCES
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SO MAY SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON MON.
WED SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER AS INSTABILITY AND THE MOISTURE HAVE BOTH
MOVED EASTWARD WITH DRY WESTERLIES ALOFT UNTIL SAT NIGHT.  MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ409-410-412-
477.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IDZ018-031.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
719 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008

IDZ017>025-031-032-231200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
719 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOWS IN BURN AREAS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.

LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO RESULT IN FIRE STARTS...SO A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.