Winter Storm Watch 8, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 200038
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
738 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-200845-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-081220T0500Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0008.081221T0900Z-081222T0000Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
738 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. 

ALTHOUGH THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY ENDED...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. IF YOU WILL BE VENTURING
OUT...USE EXTRA CARE. ROADS AND WALKWAYS MAY STILL BE VERY
SLIPPERY.

ANOTHER STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY MIX WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY. UP TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM...ALONG WITH ONE-QUARTER INCH OF ICE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

NJZ009-010-012-PAZ068-069-200145-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-081220T0500Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
738 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 

ALTHOUGH THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY ENDED...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. IF YOU WILL BE VENTURING
OUT...USE EXTRA CARE. ROADS AND WALKWAYS MAY STILL BE VERY
SLIPPERY.

$$

NJZ013-015-PAZ067-200145-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-081220T0500Z/
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...WEST CHESTER
738 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

ALTHOUGH THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY ENDED...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. IF YOU WILL BE VENTURING
OUT...USE EXTRA CARE. ROADS AND WALKWAYS MAY STILL BE VERY
SLIPPERY.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 200920
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-202100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0008.081221T0900Z-081221T2100Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
420 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND IN BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONO REGION OF PENNSYLVANIA
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
REACH 6 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS A RESULT, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CONTINUED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY AFTER 300
AM. IT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND IT MAY MIX WITH
SLEET BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE SNOW TO OUR
REGION WAS LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL RACE
TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

IOVINO

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 201944
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
244 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-210500-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0008.081221T0900Z-081221T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.081221T0800Z-081221T1800Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
244 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS REPLACED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...AND IN
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS OF PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD REACH
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. 

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM AND END AROUND NOON. AS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS, IT COULD MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL HEAVIEST BETWEEN 5 AND 9 AM.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIPPERY FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CAUSE FOR THE WINTRY WEATHER IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THEN REFORM EAST OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. THIS LOW WILL THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILLS DROPPING AS LOW AS
10 BELOW ZERO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-210500-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0008.081221T0900Z-081221T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.081221T0800Z-081221T1800Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
244 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS REPLACED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...AND IN THE EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. 

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. DURING SUNDAY MORNING...THE
SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
IT ENDS AROUND NOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL HEAVIEST BETWEEN 5
AND 9 AM.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIPPERY FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CAUSE FOR THE WINTRY WEATHER IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THEN REFORM EAST OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. THIS LOW WILL THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILLS DROPPING AS LOW AS
5 BELOW ZERO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

NJZ009-010-210500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.081221T0800Z-081221T1800Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE
244 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. 

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. DURING SUNDAY MORNING...THE
SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
IT ENDS AROUND NOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL HEAVIEST BETWEEN 5
AND 9 AM.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIPPERY FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CAUSE FOR THE WINTRY WEATHER IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THEN REFORM EAST OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. THIS LOW WILL THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILLS DROPPING AS LOW AS
5 BELOW ZERO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012-013-015>019-PAZ067>071-210500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.081221T0800Z-081221T1800Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...
FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
244 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY.

SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM THE PHILADELPHIA
AND TRENTON METROPOLITAN AREAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH WILMINGTON
DELAWARE TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA, WITH AROUND AN INCH
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW TRANSITIONS OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BY LATE MORNING, THE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET SHOULD TURN TO RAIN, MAINLY FROM PHILADELPHIA SOUTH AND
EAST.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIPPERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CAUSE FOR THE WINTRY WEATHER IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THEN REFORM EAST OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. THIS LOW WILL THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILLS DROPPING AS LOW AS
ZERO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

RNS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND PROVIDE A SMALL BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
SECOND LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADVISORIES IN BUCKS, MONTGOMERY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET IN THEIR NORTHERN AREAS. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THERE, AS WELL AS SOME POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION
OF FREEZING RAIN. ELSEWHERE, WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE
UNCHANGED. BASCIALLY RAIN ON THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ AND IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA, WITH FREEZING RAIN JUST NORTH OF THAT, THEN
SNOW AND SLEET MIX NORTH OF THAT.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION BELOW:

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
THE NEWEST 12Z NAM RUN. INITIALLY WE STARTED WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AROUND 800 MB THAT WERE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS CAUSED THE PCPN
TO START AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF SE PA AND CENTRAL
NJ. HOWEVER, AS PCPN SATURATED THIS PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE, IT
COOLED. THIS MEAN THE PCPN CHANGED TO SLEET AND SNOW OVER AREAS
THAT STARTED AS RAIN. OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES ALL PCPN HAS BEEN SNOW.

FOLLOWING TRENDS AND LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, SNOW WILL
CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES NORTH AND THE PREVIOUS FCST AMOUNTS LOOK
REASONABLE. FARTHER SOUTH, IE FROM RDG/ABE EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN FCST WITH
MORE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN SINCE THERE IS FCST TO BE A WARM LAYER
REDEVELOPING ALOFT. ACROSS THIS AREA, THERE WILL BE LARGE
DIFFERENCES NORTH TO SOUTH WITH MORE SNOW CLOSER TO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ AND MORE MIXED PCPN AND EVEN SOME RAIN SOUTH.

IN THE PHILA METRO AREA, SOME SLEET MIXED WITH THE RAIN NORTH AND
WEST WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CITY. THE PCPN SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW COULD LINGER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS AS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED AT
THE GROUND.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES NORTH, TO NOTHING IN
THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA. FROM RDG-ABE EASTWARD THROUGH
NJ, THERE WILL BE A LARGE GRADIENT RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES SOUTH
TO 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH.

TONIGHT, PCPN SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SATURATED BELOW 5
THSD FT. HOWEVER, WITHOUT ANY ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO GENERATE SNOW,
MAINLY DRIZZLE OR FRZG DRIZZLE WAS FCST. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTIONGETS PARTS OF
THE SOUNDINGS TO MINUS 8 IN THE SATURATED LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO A DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY HANG AROUND THE NORTHERN
MOST ZONES AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY CLEARS OUT SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM GATHERS STEAM AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
LATER SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOUNCE BACK SLIGHTLY, BUT NOT BY
MUCH WITH 30S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMINISCENT OF THE WINTER OF 1993-94 WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

UNLIKE TOMORROWS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HAVE A BUDDY HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACCOMPANYING IT TO THE NORTH, THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH
THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED
FARTHER TO THE EAST WHEN PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND THUS AN ICIER
LOOK TO IT. A 50/50 LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM EAST OF THIS HIGH WHICH
WOULD AFFORD IT A HEALTHIER CONFLUENCE ZONE ALOFT, KEEPING COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE TOUGHER TO DISPLACE. THE MODELS ARE KEYING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE BEST COLD AIR DAMMING ATTM.  THE LOW ITSELF
IS THE ONE ENTERTAINING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE MOMENT. ITS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHWARD LOCATION OF THE CLOSED
500MB AND 850MB LOWS IN THE GREAT LAKES WOULD FAVOR WARM AIR MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH KEEPING FRESH COLD AIR AROUND AT THE
SURFACE.  THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE FRESH SNOW PACK THAT WILL BE
FORMED TOMORROW.

SO WHILE THE QPF VALUES FOR THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
TOMORROWS...THE PTYPE RIGHT NOW WOULD FAVOR MORE NON-SNOW FROZEN
PTYPES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. IF PCPN CAN
ARRIVE FASTER AND THE MODEL TIMING IS OVERALL FASTER, IT MIGHT START
AS SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GREATER PHL METRO AREA. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING IN WARM AIR ALOFT THAN THE ECMWF AND THUS
HAS LESS SNOW AT THE START. WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE A FASTER EXIT AND WE START TRAILING
OFF THE EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF FAIR AND COLD DAYS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE CAN THEN WASH, RINSE AND
REPEAT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. THAT SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE
OFFSHORE WHEN PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THIS WOULD INFER AT THIS
JUNCTURE A FASTER TRANSITION OF SNOW AT THE START TO RAIN, POSSIBLY
THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.

CHRISTMAS DAY RIGHT NOW WILL FEEL LIKE A WINTER DAY, BUT RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT MOST SITES ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHTER PCPN AREAS AND SOME LIFR IN THE
HEAVY PCPN AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES AT ABE, FZRAIN AT RDG/TTN, AND
RAIN AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES. THE SNOW AT ABE WILL CHANGE TO FZRA
AND SLEET THIS EVENING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.

THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z, SOME COLDER AIR WILL RETURN, BUT
PCPN WILL BECOME LIGHTER. MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ABE/RDG/TTN. PHL/PNE/ILG/MIV/ACY SHOULD ALL STAY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH DRIZZLE EXPECTED. IFR AND/OR LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOWARD MORNING, ENOUGH COLDER DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE SO THAT VSBY
IMPROVES TO 5 TO 6 MI AND PCPN ENDS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT TO
MVFR.

OUTLOOK...MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. A TRANSITION OF PCPN IS ANTICIPATED
WITH MORE SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, BUT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUESDAY. RAIN AND/OR MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL RACE TO
THE EAST.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE LATE TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST AFFECTS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST FOR TUESDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
NOON TODAY UNTIL 600 PM ON SATURDAY.  WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
5 OR 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON, AND THERE COULD BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS.  WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERION ON DELAWARE BAY.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME, AS
SEAS SHOULD NOT HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SUBSIDE BEFORE OUR REGION IS
AFFECTED BY THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST
TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND ON
DELAWARE BAY, AS WELL.  AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
INTENSIFIES, WE MAY ACTUALLY NEED A GALE WARNING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE NEED AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE AN INCH OF RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING ON
SOME OF THE STREAMS IN SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ SUCH AS THE ASSUNPINK
CREEK IN MERCER COUNTY NJ AND BRANDYWINE, CHESTER, NESHAMINY AND
PERKIOMEN CREEKS IN SE PA. HOWEVER, WE ONLY ANTICIPATE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH OF RAIN THEREFORE STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE ARE BETWEEN TIDAL CYCLES. FOR THIS REASON, WE NEED OVER 2 1/2
FT DEPARTURES TO CAUSE FLOODING. THIS SHOULD NOT HAPPEN DIRECTLY
ON THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
COULD ALLOW WATER TO BECOME TRAPPED IN THE BACK BAYS AND WE COULD
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THERE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-068-069.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...WANTON
AVIATION...STAUBER
MARINE...STAUBER
HYDROLOGY...STAUBER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAUBER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-202130-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-202130-
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ009-010-202130-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ013-015-PAZ067-202130-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CHESTER-
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ012-PAZ068-069-202130-
MIDDLESEX-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-202130-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ023>025-202130-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-202130-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-202130-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ014-020>022-026-027-202130-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
422 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.