Storm Warning 4, NWS New York, NY

061 
WHUS71 KOKX 212117
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
417 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING...AND
THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STORM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. 

ANZ350-353-355-220930-
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-081221T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.SR.W.0004.081221T2117Z-081222T1100Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
417 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY. THE
GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY LAST INTO MONDAY EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KT ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-220930-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-081222T2300Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
417 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS 40
TO 45 KT THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KT ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GOODMAN

135 
WHUS71 KOKX 220519 AAA
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1219 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

...STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING...
AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STORM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-221100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.LO.Y.0014.081222T0519Z-081222T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-081222T2300Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
1219 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A LOW WATER
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
40 TO 45 KT THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY LOW WATER LEVELS
DURING TIMES OF LOW TIDE. DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW NORMAL ARE
POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KT ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-221100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.LO.Y.0014.081222T0519Z-081222T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-081222T1100Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1219 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A LOW WATER
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT WITH STORM FORCE
GUSTS UP TO 50 KT TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY LAST INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY LOW WATER LEVELS
DURING TIMES OF LOW TIDE. DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW NORMAL ARE
POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KT ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

040 
WHUS71 KOKX 220935
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
435 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TODAY...

.INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY
THIS MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD
THE WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WAS PRODUCING STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH
AND HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS EAST THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT ON THE OUTER FORECAST OCEAN WATERS.

ANZ350-353-355-222200-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-081222T1100Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.LO.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-081222T2200Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.GL.W.0040.081222T1000Z-081222T2300Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
435 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE LOW WATER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL
5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KT WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 35 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY. GALE
FORCE GUSTS MAY EXTEND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ON
THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS.

THESE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WERE PUSHING WATER OUT OF THE LONG
ISLAND BAYS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN VERY LOW WATER LEVELS DURING
THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW
NORMAL...AND THESE DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KT ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-222200-
/O.EXT.KOKX.LO.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-081222T2200Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-081222T2300Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
435 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE LOW WATER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY LATE IN THE DAY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 25 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.

THESE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WERE PUSHING WATER OUT OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND...THE LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND NEW YORK HARBOR. THIS WAS
RESULTING IN VERY LOW WATER LEVELS DURING THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE.
TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW NORMAL...AND THESE
DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KT ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
108 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...
WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TRACKS BY TO THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PUTTING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BANDS OF PRECIP
MOVING ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. LIGHT SNOW WILL START TO FALL ACROSS FIRE ISLAND AND
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE
THESE BANDS ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM STARTING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHWARD TOWARD MORNING...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT INITIALLY. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS...TEMPS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE AS MARINE AIR IS BROUGHT INLAND ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL NYC. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT TEMPS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COLD ENOUGH AND MOIST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW ...OR AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE
QPF EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW THERE. THIS WILL RESULT IN 4 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT
THE TAIL END OF PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING. AS YOU MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THERE TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL COME DOWN AND
THE LIKELIHOOD AND DURATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING
INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT WHERE THE WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.
EVENTUALLY...FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AND SOUTH AND EAST...EXPECT
A PERIOD WHERE PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO A PLAIN RAIN SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON SUNDAY
AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUN NIGHT.
BLOCKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE STORM FROM
PROGRESSING AND IT WILL BECOME VERY WINDY SUN NIGHT AND MON. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES (850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO
-15C TO -17C) WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...EVEN 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE CRITICAL ZERO DEGREE MARK IN NEW YORK CITY.
AMBIENT AIR TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 20S ON
MONDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...POSSIBLY A HIGH WIND
WARNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE ATTENTION GIVEN TO THE IMPACT OF THE STORM
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND WARNING/ADVISORY DECISIONS...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON WIND HAZARDS FOR NOW.

STORM FINALLY LIFTS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY. KEPT TEMPERATURES
BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND
EXISTING SNOW COVER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THE HEELS OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW TUE...THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
ALOFT...BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS A RESULT...
SEVERAL PAC FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COLD START ON TUE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WED...AND LIKELY STAY THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST OF
THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO ENSUE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM. PCPN DEVELOPS LATE TUE
NIGHT AND WILL INITIALLY BE A WINTRY MIX...WHICH QUICKLY CHANGES
OVER TO RAIN WED MORNING. DUE TO A TRANSIENT HIGH AND NO SIGNS OF
COLD AIR DAMMING...THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
QUICKLY IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY (THU) WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT BY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FRI INTO SAT. PERHAPS...A WINTRY MIX AT THE VERY ONSET OF THE
PCPN ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY. ONCE AGAIN...THE
NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW IS SUCH THAT THE COLD AIR WILL BE LIMITED
AND OF PAC ORIGIN. THUS...WINTER TYPE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY IN
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT TRENDING DOWNWARD TOWARD MORNING AS STEADIER PRECIP
DEVELOPS.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING ON A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID FOR LI/NYC/COASTAL CT
TERMINALS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE AT
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY TIME WOULD BE 12Z-15Z.

WINDS VEER SHARPLY TO WESTERLY WITH FROPA...BUT MAY BE ERRATIC AND
LIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR AS THE LOW CENTER PASSES JUST SOUTH OF
LI. AS A RESULT...FOG MAY BE MORE DENSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

VERY STRONG WINDS AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS TO 50 KTS ALONG WITH LLWS.

TEMPS DROP SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY SLUSH OR WATER WILL REFREEZE ON
UNTREATED RUNWAYS/TARMACS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN KEEPS GUSTY NW WINDS IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG WITH
SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDS WED MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS EVENING. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO TONIGHT...7 TO 10 FEET.

THEN LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS AS IT TRACKS FROM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUN MORNING TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUN EVENING. A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN SOUND/BAYS LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH
DEVELOPING STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF THE LOW. AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HOWEVER...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF THE BOMBING LOW WILL HAVE WINDS ON THE AREA
WATERS QUICKLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ON A WESTERLY FLOW LATE SUN
AFTERNOON/SUN EVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT WIND GUSTS ON THE AREA WATERS...AND ESPECIALLY THE
OCEAN MAY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TO KEEP
THINGS SIMPLE WILL GO UP WITH A GALE WARNING WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
THROUGH LATE MON...BUT IT MAY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING
FOR SUN NIGHT ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

FREEZING SPRAY MAY ALSO OCCUR...ALTHOUGH SST/S A BIT ON THE HIGH
SIDE RIGHT NOW (MID 40S LI SOUND AND UPPER 40S OCEAN)

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MONDAY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GALES SUBSIDING TO
SCA AND THEN BELOW MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST.

HIGH PRES BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER THE WATER ON TUE. A STRENGTHENING
RETURN FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED REACHES SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS.
GALE CONDITIONS SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THE WARM ADVECTION
SETS UP A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION OVER THE WATERS. SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THU...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THU AFT
INTO FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BETWEEN 0.50 AND
0.75 INCHES OF QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD
CAUSE MINOR URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER NYC/LONG ISLAND WHERE
THERE WILL BE MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2 FT EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUN TIDES...WHICH REMAINS BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...NY HARBOR...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS.

SIGNIFICANT BLOW-OUT TIDES PROBABLE WITH MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON LOW TIDES...WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 1/2 TO 3 1/2 FT
POSSIBLE...WITH ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDES OF AROUND 0 FT ABOVE MLLW.
APPEARS DEPARTURES WILL NOT GET LOW ENOUGH FOR LOW WATER PROBLEMS
DURING SUN NIGHT LOW TIDE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ005>007-009.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ068>071.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ002>005-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ330-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ335-338.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

CTZ005>007-009-NJZ002>005-011-NYZ068>071-211345-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
UNION-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN VERY ICY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
TREACHEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-340-345-350-353-355-211345-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ338-211345-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ067-211345-
ORANGE-
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN VERY ICY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
TREACHEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ335-211345-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ008-010>012-NJZ006-NYZ072>081-211345-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN A QUICK FREEZE OF ANY WATER ON AREA
SURFACES. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
346 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

NYZ079>081-211645-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
346 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

AN AREA OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT SOME
AREAS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH BY 5 AM. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO NEAR FREEZING...ANY NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY HIDE ICY PATCHES
ON THE ROADS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION.

IRD