Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 232225
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
525 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

MNC025-WIC095-232300-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0288.000000T0000Z-080923T2300Z/
CHISAGO MN-POLK WI-
525 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN CHISAGO COUNTIES...

AT 523 PM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THESE SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CUSHING TO CENTURIA TO 3 MILES EAST OF DRESSER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WOLF CREEK...LEWIS...
CUSHING...CLAM FALLS...TAYLORS FALLS...SHAFER...ST CROIX FALLS...
OSCEOLA...MILLTOWN AND LUCK.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4572 9216 4540 9238 4530 9267 4531 9279
      4545 9275 4564 9273 4565 9253 4573 9252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 235DEG 22KT 4559 9262 4545 9257
          4538 9256

$$

MDB

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 232248
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
548 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

MNC025-WIC095-232258-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0288.000000T0000Z-080923T2300Z/
CHISAGO MN-POLK WI-
548 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN CHISAGO
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE STORM HAD WEAKENED. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND 
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THESE STORMS EXIT THE 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4572 9216 4540 9238 4530 9267 4531 9279
      4545 9275 4564 9273 4565 9253 4573 9252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 235DEG 22KT 4567 9245 4553 9240
          4546 9240

$$

MDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
224 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...IS CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
CWA THIS EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SOME MODERATE SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS ACROSS THE AREA. MLCAPE INCREASING 500-1000 J/KG
ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC BNDRY OVR CNTRL MN. DEEPER SHEAR STILL LAGGING
BEHIND BNDRY OVR WRN MN BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING THE
EVENING...AS RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND OVER MN. COULD SEE A NARROW WINDOW OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WC WI. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
BY 03Z/AFTER SUNSET. VARIOUS NMM-WRF/LAPSWRF REFLECTIVITY FCSTS
FOR THE EVENING SHOW LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH AREA...WITH
SOME WRAPAROUND SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE LATE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA FOR WED AND WED NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING. THEN RETURN FLOW/LLJ AND SOME HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES
NORTH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN CWA. HELD ONTO SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS.

MODELS TRENDING NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATER FRIDAY/FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT...HOLDING ONTO SOME
LIGHT QPF FAR EAST YET INTO SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW THIS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MODELS AMPLIFY WESTERN RIDGE AND ALLOWS ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. APPEARS EACH MODEL RUN IS
STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS WEATHER FEATURE. UPPER PATTER REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
THROUGH THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ALOT OF THE TAF FORECASTS HINGED ON THE COLD FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABLITY AHEAD OF IT. COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO NORTHWEST MN...AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MODERATE
TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEATHER CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
MARGINAL VFR CONDS IN THUNDERSTORMS OR NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN CLEARING. EXCELLENT FLYING CONDS ARE
ANTICIPATE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A DRY WESTERLY AIRFLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
TAF SITES.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

DWE/JVM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
247 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
241200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
247 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
AND THEN FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

MNZ067>069-075-076-232130-
CARVER-LE SUEUR-NICOLLET-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
324 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CARVER...LE SUEUR...NICOLLET...SCOTT
AND SIBLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 320 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GAYLORD TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NICOLLET. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 42 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SIBLEY AND WESTERN CARVER COUNTIES FROM WATERTOWN TO MAYER TO
NORWOOD/YOUNG AMERICA AT 320 PM CDT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  GAYLORD.
  NEW ROME.
  RUSH RIVER.
  OTTAWA.
  LE SUEUR.
  ST THOMAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

MDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH BRANCH            45.51N 92.98W
09/23/2008                   CHISAGO            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TWO 12-18 INCH DIAMETER TREES
            DOWN FROM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

&&

TRH