Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 280125
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
825 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2008

MNC015-103-280135-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0287.000000T0000Z-080828T0145Z/
BROWN MN-NICOLLET MN-
825 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NICOLLET AND BROWN COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE STORM HAD WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE 
LEVELS. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY AND ALL OF 
NICOLLET COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM...WITH INTENSE CLOUD-TO-GROUND 
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE 
BIGGEST HAZARDS.

LAT...LON 4427 9500 4429 9496 4428 9487 4433 9487
      4446 9458 4446 9406 4445 9401 4436 9396
      4426 9435 4426 9437 4425 9438 4411 9488
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 240DEG 42KT 4439 9445

$$

KAT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
619 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2008

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER FAR SW MN ATTM.
WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY
PICK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG DIFFERENTIAL LAYER
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN WITH COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR KRWF...KMSP...KRNH AND DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR KEAU. KSTC AND KAXN MORE IN LINE
FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW PRESSURE. LOWERED CEILINGS SOME MORE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES WITH 1000 TO 1500 FOOT CEILINGS
EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 3
TO 5 MILES IN FOG. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY MORNING WITH W TO NW
WINDS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN VFR CU EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2008/

FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM RAIN CHANCES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE NIGHT. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHWEST CWA
AREA...PROGGED TO EAST CENTRAL MN BY 12Z THU. 25H JET FCST TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 06Z THU...AND SHOULD PROVIDE FORCING FOR LINE
OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT. LOCAL LAPS/WRF SHOWING FCST
RADAR REFLECTIVITY INTENSIFYING DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS IT
MOVES EAST TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL(HAIL/STRONG WINDS) IS
PRESENT...DEVELOPING MAINLY DURING THE EVENING OVER WESTERN
CWA...NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE 45-50KTS
WITH PROGGED INSTABILITY/CAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. BEST
09Z SREF PROBS SHOW THIS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN
AS WELL. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF EASTERN CWA...AHEAD
OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS OVER THE FAR EAST
REGION...AS COLD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME THURSDAY...WITH READINGS RANGING CLOSE TO
NORMA. THEREFORE...MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE
MOST PART.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IN STORE FOR
THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS AHEAD RATHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS WESTERN US.
TEMPERATURE SHOULD WARM NICELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
12Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE FRONT A TAD AND SHOULD EXIT THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO WED FOR
NOW...IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS FURTHER.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/DWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
281200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
330 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.